BAGAKOAA; February 24, 2013 Sequestration Procrastination 

Post 792

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February/2013

 

 

It was Friday and we had 11 contractors or vendors visiting the new digs. At 7:50 in the morning, Dave from bee busters started the day by confirming the colony of bees on the property were not your cute cuddly jump on my stamen and petals honey bee, but an Africanized version.

 

A swarm had chased our new foreman, Antonio, into our pool. Dave told me never run to the pool. Africanized bees will wait for you to come up for air and sting your face. Antonio was stung about 12 times. Dave treated the buzzers from Botswana and went his merry way just in tome for John the roof guy.

 

John was cool but had a slight resemblance to the guy who lost the house in the bankruptcy and I was taken back a bit to see the former owner throw a ladder on my house. John and his guy (yes my roof guy has a guy), tidies up all the broken tiles and all looks like new.

 

Then my barbeque guy came out and confirmed my barbeques were a mess. Duh! The good news is, if I sell a few of our homes and rent out a few bedrooms, he can have my grills looking like new.

 

Robert, the Audio Visions guy came and we walked the property and we have 27 televisions, not 26 like I thought. (The was one in a cabinet above a refrigerator?) He now has the inventory and wants to know what we want.

 

Devin and I will deliberate and cut the TV list down to 15-20. The system will be great and can be set up to drive everything from our iPhone and or iPad. I can see those babies flying across the room now.

 

Interrupting our parade of vendors for a brief moment, was boy Jack who was a big help on Friday. Taking a short break, he found the remote to one of the 27 televisions and turned on an episode of NCIS. I told him to shut TV off as it is a proven fact that TV makes you dumb.

 

Man child look at me and said, "Wow Dad, you musta watched a whole bunch of TV growing up."

 

Then Devin and I entertained more contractors whild also showing visitors around the property. Linda B. came buy for the 45 minute tour and then got roped into to cleaning the kitchen with our other indentured servants Jerene and Dennis.

 

Dennis did find a few minutes to try out his new metal detector. We have gone into partnership on this endeavor and it is already paying off. Our 1,200 dollar investment has already discovered 2 nails and a rock. Our company will be called CFS LLC. Cant' Find Shi%()_#, LLC.

 

Saturday after a nice breakfast it was back to Chateau Cronin and I moved my first case of wine into my new wine room. It was a 2009 Joseph Phelps Insignia. It will be in the back room where it will rest an age for at least another 12 months.

 

Again, we somehow convinced Dennis, Patti and Jerene to come down for another day of hard labor. Dennis and Jerene's daughter Lauren and beau Alec also made the visit, but were smart enough to walk the ground and make a quick get away before Devin could fit shackles for them.

 

We finished the day by breaking out the new Bocce Ball set. Dennis and I felt obligated to discover the nuances of the Bocce court before the girls had finished their assigned chores at the house. While testing out the equipment, we had our first Bocce incident.

 

I was attempting a very difficult strategy and swung my hand back (yes my broken hand) and hit one of the lights on the court. The weight of the ball slammed my broken finger into the light a slit my finger open.

 

Now I was miles from the nearest sink and blood was flowing all across the property as I made my way to the main house. Weak and delirious, I yelled in the door for help. Devin arrived just in the nick of time and gave me a paper towel and said, "Your not very stoic are you."

 

All of us played Bocce for the next hour or so and headed off for a quick Mexican meal in the canyon.

 

Today it was a bit leisurely as we started moving things into the new place. Devin had some kitchen stuff and I moved two more cases of wine. It was a great weekend.

Every Which Way But Loose

 

Let me apologize as last Thursday I said we had a shakened market but still in an uptrend, GREEN FLAG. Well I miscounted my distribution days and underestimated the volume on Thursday. That downward volume and sell of gave us enough distribution days to call this an uptrend under pressure, aka YELLOW FLAG.

 

That means, you should have real conviction before entering a new long position. You might also want to dump any stock you are having second thoughts about. And you might want to take some profits from some of your winners.

 

With that in mind, we did look for some pearls and might have found a few only to second guess what might happen to them if Congress does not take some responsible action by this Friday. As a result, here are my notes attached to my Spike Trade for next week.

 

"Last week, we had a beautiful set up and the right idea with the RDC pick, but Mr. Market shifted on us on Tuesday and Wednesday and kicked us out. Even our second choice ESRX did better due to a nice earnings call which we had assumed, popped 9% then Mr. Market said, "Not so fast."

 

After looking at many Long (DRI, FORR, VZ, OIH, GY) and Short (ANF, V), opportunities, the best play would be a volatility play due the inevitable volatility brought on my the results of the sequestration vote or lack there off by Friday. Many Barron's articles mentioned the impact and the big casino bosses will probably be playing all six sides of the dice this week. We will go long VXX and play the April 23 Call below 2.50 a contract.

 

We want to get into VXX below 23 and we will put in a stop at 19.75 (Resistance seems to be at the 20.25 level, and our target is 28.00 in the next two weeks.

 

Other ideas this week, I like Farley's comments about SFLY, and GLD might be worth the play if our guess on VXX turns exciting.

 

Lessons learned from last week:

 

Having a physical therapist tell you "You are not very stoic.", means that you are a weenie.

 

African Bees do not like their colonies disturbed.

 

41% is a great two day gain in a call option. Take it and don't be greedy.

 

If you want your friends to read your blog, write about them, not you."


Salve Lucrum
Brian Ireland
 
 
Since 12/31/2012
G to Y 12/27/2012
BAGAKOAA;

I am not a professional investment adviser. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. Except for a nasty VXX trade is 2012.   There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.

 

BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages

 

Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit.

 

Brian's estimate :

2013 Year Ending

Dow 14,361

S&P 500

1,610

 

2012 Year Ending

Dow 13,073

Actual 13,104

S&P 500 1,358

Actual 1,426

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hannas