A Trillion Here, A Trillion There
We were stopped out of our GM short sale because the political banter about a solution to the fiscal cliff tricked the market into going higher today and most of the auto sector fell for their lies. I took a 3.9% loss as well as a 12% loss on January Call option for GM as well.
We added to our EZJ position after some glorious confirmations form various respectable research papers. As well as the MACD trend line on the 6 month daily chart. (We will talk more later.)
We also bought our way out of a VERY profitable AAPL Put we sold last week for 19.10 a contract. Today's price was 8.41 so it was a nice exit. We probably could have had this ride a while, but we will be on the road for two days and I will not be able to babysit it so we took the profit.
Setting Up For A Fall
There was a lot of banter about the possibility of the fiscal cliff being resolved. Personally I do not see the WOW factor. Even if the two groups can agree on 1 trillion in cuts and 1 trillion in revenue, which it seems like they have not, that is 2 trillion over about a 5 year period on a debt ceiling that reaches its max in about two weeks.
I would keep a close eye on your protective stops boys and girl. Here is a suggestion to anybody who cares. Look at a six month daily chart and set a 20 day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) but more importantly use a traditional MACD 12,26,9 (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) oscillator.
Don't worry most of the finance and broker websites have this as the default overlay. If not go to another site. Anyway, look up SPY, the Spider ETF for the S&P 500. Look at the MACD line.
When you see the MACD cross the signal line to the upside it is a bullish trend. When it reverses, it is a bearish sign. Go and look at it today or tonight. You will see a cross on Nov 27th. Two days after we floated the green light. If you go back in the year, almost every flag change in this blog has been within a day or two of the MACD crossing the signal line.

If the two sides do not come up with even this poor two trillion dollar agreement, and this signal line crosses the MACD to the down side, tighten your stop and be ready to cash out and sit on the sidelines. Watch for the red flag my friends.
Salve Lucrum
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