As many of you know, I am capable of stacking several stupid things I do into an average day.  It is early yet, but I only have a couple to share.

I mentioned the other night that I had played guitar for a total of six or seven hours during our road trip to and from Utah.  I also wined about the friction blisters I got on my left had from playing the guitar.

Today, the blisters were full of this nice clear clean fluid and it was uncomfortable to touch anything but the most critical of items.  (TV remote, coffee cup, iPhone, etc.)  Before my shower, I decided it would be a good time to lance the annoying little blisters.

I made this decision as I was entering the shower, so I got out, put on my glasses, found a clean sterile surgical grade utensil (Nail clippers that have not been sterilized since . . . NEVER), and clipped the top of the skin off the blister.

Then I entered the shower once more and discovered I was losing my eyesight.  Things were getting blurry and at first I thought it was shock setting in, but my fingers did not hurt that bad.  Then I saw spots before my eyes and that had me very concerned, as I did not want to stroke out in the shower, as even I admit I could be a body double for Shrek.

I then realized I had left my glasses on when I returned to the shower.  So I was going to be OK.

Then I got in the shower, once more, and proceeded to apply shampoo to my hand liberally (As the label directs.  Obviously the marketing gal writing the directions does not take into account my follicle challenged scalp.) and as I do, I discover that shampoo is now in direct contact with the raw skin of my finger tips.

So there are two stupid things we did and that was well before noon.

I know I did not post last night because I have discovered that people don't read my, OK just kidding, you all read my blog everyday and you all have exciting productive lives.  (Still getting over that comment from last weekend.)  I did not post last night because Devin and I went to our annual block party here in Dove Canyon.

It is hosted by a wonderful Mormon family, and I only bring that up so you know it is a non-alcoholic party.  The first year we were skeptical, but it was cool seeing how a party actually ends, and remembering it.  We have had such fun every year and the food is delicious. 

Anyway we did not get home until about 10:30 and despite being terribly sober, I was a bit wankered (Old English for tired.  That was for my friends across the pond.  Martin take care and get better soon.) from the quick round trip to Utah.

Yesterday, (Friday), I also went to Guitar Center to get another Guitar an Amp, a PA system, a microphone, a 12 track sound board, and all kinds of stuff to make all that stuff work.  Unfortunately I have no idea how to hook it all up and make it work.

Even worse, the guys at Guitar Center Loaded the Fender 65 reissue twin reverb amp into my truck.  Imagine my surprise when I went to lift it out of the truck and discovered it weighs about 70 pounds.  Suddenly my inguinal hernia was alive and doing well after comfortably resting for many years.

So I have a fortune in sound equipment I can't lift and do not know how to use.  This recording studio is a great idea.

But that was yesterday and as the song says, Yesterday's Gone.

Today I had only two stupid things logged in my STJ Stupid Things Journal.  The journal is 36 volumes long with each volume having 750 or so entries.  (Bob H., that was a joke I do not have a STJ.  Bob H., complemented me on my study of ancient archaic languages a while back when I referenced the Papal Vulgate.  I was flattered, but I am not that intelligent.)

Whilst finishing my shower, man child, came into the bath room as my lovely wife had called and needed to talk to me.  (Needed is a very subjective word in our home.)  From in the shower with Man Child holding the phone on speaker, Devin asked if I could get her car washed today as she was in the midst of finishing Christmas wrapping today.

I am glad I am retired and have most of the week off so I can join the 384,000 other people in South Orange County to get their car washed in the middle of Saturday afternoon.  Of course I will bring her new gigantic white beast to the car wash and wait for hours while they clean the behemoth.

Still, while still in the shower she asked if I wanted to go to the "Steakhouse" as our son in law had never been there.  (Sorry Dave, I won't put a link to the place I promise.) 

The Steakhouse is actually called the Trabuco Canyon Steakhouse and it is in, you guessed it, Trabuco Canyon.  TC is known for the steakhouse, canyon fires, and canyon floods.  It has been serving above average steaks (until Hanna's started bring in dry aged beef) since the late 1960s.  My first meal there was about 1975.

You used to have to take a spine tingling ride up the hills and back roads of OC to get to the place.  Then my dad would proceed to knock back a few Irish whiskey's a bottle or two of wine and we would have an E-ride back to El Toro.  (Kids, look up E-ride in Wikipedia). 

The Steakhouse didn't have Irish Whiskey when my dad first went there.  On his second visit he brought a case for their inventory. 

The place has a cool history.  There were (possibly are) pictures of Richard Nixon eating there enjoying a steak (tie cut off) with his fishing buddy Bebe Rebozo.  Rebozo was later investigated for funneling money to Nixon's campaign fund from some guy named Howard Hughes.  That was the least of Nixon's problems.

But lore has it that when the server at the Steakhouse came to cut off Nixon's tie, the Secret Service tried to intercede, but Nixon wouldn't have it and the SS watched carefully as they trimmed his Nino Cerruti tie.  It still hangs behind the counter.  I personally have lost two ties there.

On the walls are thousands and thousands of ties that have been snipped over the years.  There are even ties from several readers of this blog hanging in this hallowed epicurean historical venue.

Is There A Worm In the Apple?

The market was up a tad .008% aka a skosh this week, while AAPL tumbled about 9%.  We got everyone out of AAPL about three weeks ago.  The stock hit 527 on Thursday.

How can one of our super heroes like AAPL fall from the sky ($702ish in September) to a 532 range?  Well, the answer is in the question.  This is a Mega Stock.  In September, its market cap was equal to almost half of the market cap of the entire S&P 500.

There a  lot of funds holding huge multi year gains in AAPL.  What happens to those gains as of January 1, 2013 (or in the case of California January 1, 2012).  They will be taxed more than they are now.  There is tremendous selling of this holding for individual tax considerations and hedge fund window dressing.  (If they close out a winning position by the end of the year they get to send out notes to all constituents about what a good year they had.)

Is there anything fundamentally wrong with the equity.  Possibly some more fierce competition, but all in all, we think it is a still a great long term bet.  Rumor's suggest that AAPL will have more than 100 billion in cash by years end.  I would not bet against Apple.

Most analyst target prices are in the 700-900 range.  It's forward looking P/E ratio is 9.2.  That is like saying I want to buy a car, and the average price of a car is 14 dollars (average of the S&P 500 forward looking P/E), and this Rolls Royce can be bought at a 35% discount at 9 dollars.).

Am I suggesting you buy AAPL?   Great question and it depends on your time frame.  If you think AAPL will pop back to 700+ in a few weeks, I doubt it.  I even thing there maybe some more room on the downside.

Remember, the price of a stock is and I quote "Each price represents a momentary consensus of value between buyers and sellers and undecided traders at the moment of the transaction." (Elder's Trading For A Living).  There are fund managers and people who are undecided as to their tax considerations and their need or desire to get out of AAPL.

I personally don't to pick a market or equity bottom as I am no good at it.  I can see APPL below 500 in the next 3 weeks, but will consider buying below $525.  If we can catch a 525 we will put a stop in at $475.  We would be looking for a 600 my Q1 2013 when iPad mini and iPhone 5 numbers begin to add to the 100 billion in cash. 

We should also see the impact of China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom all offering the iPhone.  That could support some of the 800-900 target prices this time next year.

WE DO NOT OWN AAPLE AT THE MOMENT.    

And Now A Word From Our Sponsor

I received an e-mail from Spike Trade yesterday.  I wanted to share it with you:

"Dear Brian Cronin,

Congratulations! During the latest week, your pick URI has outperformed the bronze Spiker.

You have earned a $17 performance bonus, which we will credit towards your next monthly renewal.

We are glad to see that your homework is paying off!

Best regards,

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Yes my URI trade passed the mustard for the Spike Trade people.  I rang the bell (in the contest) with a 2.8% gain for the week.  Now I will be looking for next weeks play.

Tomorrow I will let you know what that is and what Barron's had to say. 

Since 11/25/2012

I am not a professional investment advisor. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.

BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages

Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit.

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