BAGAKOAA; November 30, 2012 "WHY", The Evil Three Letter Word

Post 750

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November/2012

"WHY", The Evil Three Letter Word

 

I was not going to blog tonight.  The main reason is, that my readership drops from about 44 or 45 to 22 or 23 on Saturday and Sunday.  Yes, you slackers finally get around to reading my post when you get back to work on Monday, but many of you flaunt the fact you have a life by not reading my blog all weekend long.

 

Now I have nothing against you reading my blog on company hours.  That is because I don't have a company anymore fool.  In fact, I happen to know my blog is compulsory reading in places like Seidler Partners, UBS, Goldman Sacks, Edward Jones, Precept Group, to name a few.  It is compulsory because these people can not believe the verbiage I post on a continuous basis.

 

So if you have no life and find yourself enjoying this on Saturday and or Sunday Morning, thank you.  If it is Monday and you are reading this, I am sending an email to your boss (and you know I know who they are) and letting them know what a valuable asset your are to the company. 

 

Tonight, as I said, I was not going to blog because I had a great meal with my lovely wife at our favorite place, Hanna's.  I had a salad and a burger.  (See Butch, even though I eat there all the time it does not mean they are huge meals.)  I had fun with our server Katie as I asked for my cheese burger raw or as close as they could come to raw.

 

Sean and the team in the kitchen listened to my request as the burger was presented while they were providing CPR to the piece of meat.  When Katie came to check on us, I complained that the burger had barely been cooked.  Devin told me to shut up and told Katie to ignore me.  Katie left the table quite confused.

 

I had a fun filled day today.  I actually slept in till 8:00 AM and took care of the dogs.  I went into the market and closed out some nice trades to end the month.  (More later).

 

Then I had to wait for Appliance Masters to arrive as we are having problems with our Viking Range double oven.  Our guy arrived and was excited as he had not seen this model and he deals with all of South Orange County California.  (If you do not know, South Orange County is where all the uber rich selfish greedy guys like me live.  It was because of South Orange County that Proposition 30 was created as we have so much money we do not care that 13.8% will now go to the fine fiscally responsible coffers in Sacramento.) 

 

He spent about an hour and as usual could not recreate the problem we were having.  He decided he would all new controller boards and replace them.  In his words, "When you spend this much on a range, it should work." 

 

Then it was time to take Jack to workout.  I was going to go with him, but I had 30 minutes to close the market today and with it the end of the month, decided it was better to make some money than sweat some sweat.  Besides I have a drum set now and will be sweating a lot.

 

I closed the market and did some record keeping and forensics on my trades this month just into time to get Jack and be home to wait for Audio Toyz to show up.  This is our Audio Visual contractor.  (I told we have a person for everything.)   They were here to make Jack system work the way it should.  They were also here to place electronic eyes on our AV in the new entertainment center in the office so we don't have to open cabinets to make the TV work. 

 

Then the last item and the subject of the title of tonight's blog, they needed to explain to us WHY the remote downstairs does not work every time.

 

I will admit that on occasion we have a glitch in getting the TV to turn on in the morning.  Devin knew the Audio Toyz folk were coming out and she asked me to ask them WHY it does not work properly every time.  I suggested that maybe we should just have them fix it so it does, but NO, Devin wants to know WHY it doesn't work.

 

Now you have heard me rant in these 750 blog posts about Devin's obsession with the word WHY.  I am discovering as I spend more time at home that since she now has someone there to ask, the rhetorical inner voice question are now being asked of me.

 

Here are a few that have been lobbed at me lately.

 

Why do people think it is OK to let their dogs crap across the street from our house and not pick up the mess?

 

Why don't computers do what you want them to do with having to do all that other stuff?

 

Why do those people have dogs when they are never home to take care of them?

 

Why would HE suggest that Susan Rice is a good candidate for Secretary of State?

 

Why didn't they have a Castle episode this week?

 

Why did they replace that character on Bluebloods?

 

Why do THEY think it is OK to make the tax changes retro to Jan of 2012?  (Ok I'll give her that one.  I checked today and I can get the vanity license plate F PROP30.  Unfortunately I no longer have the 45 dollars to buy it.)

 

And the hits just keep coming.  Now some of these are rhetorical and by nature do not need to be answered.  My challenge is to determine which are and which aren't.  So far I am batting about .190.  When I go to answer the question, it becomes my opinion against her opinion.  I have won 3 of those in 35 years.  I am not due for a win for another 3 and half years.

 

If I don't offer an answer and or an opinion, It comes across as though I don't care and I do not like being considered inconsiderate. 

 

If I offer an answer for example, the doggie poop WHY question.  I would answer that my understanding of group dynamics is that 80% of the work gets done by 20% of the people.  We see about 20 dogs a day go by the corners out front.  We have 4 dogs.  That would be the 20%.  We pick up the 80% of the poop.

 

Now that is a perfect answer to the question "Why do people think its OK to let their dogs crap across the street from our house and not pick up the mess?"  But then it comes, like a lightning bolt out of the sky.

 

Devin will say, "That is a bunch of bull.  I just want to know WHY?"

 

Now in my spare time as a retired person, I have studied ancient archaic Greek, Hebrew, and Latin.  Just for fun I have mastered Aramaic, the language of our Lord.  In researching the story of the Garden of Eden, specifically Genisis 3:9-17 you will see where this terrible word WHY came from.  Please read along:

 

Genisis 3

 

And Jehovah God called unto the man, and said unto him, Where art thou?

10 And he said, I heard thy voice in the garden, and I was afraid, because I was naked; and I hid myself.

11 And he said, Who told thee that thou wast naked? Hast thou eaten of the tree, whereof I commanded thee that thou shouldest not eat?

12 And the man said, The woman whom thou gavest to be with me, she gave me of the tree, and I did eat.

13 And Jehovah God said unto the woman, What is this thou hast done? And the woman said, The serpent beguiled me, and I did eat.

14 And Jehovah God said unto the serpent, Because thou hast done this, cursed art thou above all cattle, and above every beast of the field; upon thy belly shalt thou go, and dust shalt thou eat all the days of thy life:

15 and I will put enmity between thee and the woman, and between thy seed and her seed: he shall bruise thy head, and thou shalt bruise his heel.

16 Unto the woman he said, I will greatly multiply thy pain and thy conception; in pain thou shalt bring forth children; and thy desire shall be to thy husband, and he shall rule over thee.

17 And unto Adam he said, Because thou hast hearkened unto the voice of thy wife, and hast eaten of the tree, of which I commanded thee, saying, Thou shalt not eat of it: cursed is the ground for thy sake; in toil shalt thou eat of it all the days of thy life; and I shalt teach your wife the word WHY to pain you the rest of your days.

Ok the last line there was a bit difficult for me to translate, but I think that is how it went down.


StaleMate

 

After the Speaker of the House announced a stale mate in the budget talks and President Obama took a moment from campaigning (someone would finally tell him he won.) to agree that there was a lot of work to be done, the market went NOWHERE

One could only ask WHY (just kidding).  Bulls and Bears alike just kinda sat by the sidelines waiting for the next big move.

 

President Obama and Boehner both admitted there is a lot of work to be done before the printing machine printing dollars and be adjusted to printing new tax instructions.  Mmmm.

 

Haven't we known about this fiscal cliff for say, oh I don't know, three years?  Didn't the President have a super committee in August of 2011 that made some whacky suggestions like cut entitlements and raise taxes to save a miniscule 4.8 trillion when our deficit was 14.8 trillion? 

 

Now both parts of the legislature is worried that they won't have a deal before they go on Holiday break.  Yeah that is their worry.  Not that their might be major doo doo in the market if they don't come up with a significant solution to a deficit which is now 16.2 trillion, but the fact they might have to work over the holidays. 

 

But we got a good start as the Whitehouse sent over a proposal which imposes 4 dollars of taxes for every one dollar of cuts.  It yields a whopping 1.4 trillion.  Yeah that sound like a good starting point. 

 

What's that noise?  Bangity clickity bang bang clang bang clickity?  Just the sound of a can being kicked down the road.

 

Let's see the numbers for the day and our crazy trades. 

 

Price Performance

at 4:59PM EST 11/30/2012

 

DJIA:          13,025.58          +3.76

S&P 500:     1,416.18          +0.23

NASDAQ:     3,010.24          -1.79

 

(BTW, with a month left, I thought it a good time to remind you of my year end prognostication as to where we would end the year.  This was uploaded over there to the right in February of this year.  My guess was the DOW at 13,073, and the S&P 500 at 1,358.)

 

We took the profit on our VRSN short sale seeing a nice quick 20.59%.  We sold it short at 40.59 and bought it back at 33.68.  SELLING SHORT IS VERY RISKY AS THERE IS NO END TO AN UPSIDE LOSS.  BECAREFUL AND KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING.

 

We were happy taking a 7.46% gain on LF after a weeks time.  We were long and in at 8.41 and took our gain at 9.26.

 

We took a little win with NTAP which got us in at 30.15 and out at 31.94 for a 5.9% gain.

 

I must have been in the mood to take wins where I could find them as I closed out a little win with KBR.  We were in at 26.42 and out at 27.68 for a 4.7% win for two weeks holdings.

 

They were not all winners today as we hit our stop on the WDC play from Monday.  We got in at 35.70 and was licking our wounds today at 33.82, a 5.3% loss.  We are looking at this again for another run at it next week.

 

Then we took some profits on some GOOG Puts we sold back in September 28 (It was in the blog.)  we sold them at 7.10 a contract and bout them back today at 2.20 each.  That would be a gain of 222%.

 

This was the worst month in my personal history of trading which began back in 1986.  This will be the first year I will show a loss since 1986.  My big loser, again was a VXX hedge gone bad and some bad timing on an AAPL play.  I am on target to have a 5.2% loss on the year.  If I could erase the VXX and AAPL boo boos, I would be just hair into the red.  Nothing to be proud of.  I have analyzed those losses and would not have changed a thing on the VXX play, except maybe have gotten out when the 4 to 1 reverse split happened in August.  If I had watched my stops more diligently with the AAPL play, I would have had a 9 or 10% loss on it instead of a 23% loss.

 

These notes are more for me than you, but if you learn something, great.    


 

Salve Lucrum

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brian Ireland
 
 
Since 11/25/2012
BAGAKOAA;

I am not a professional investment advisor. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.

BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages

Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit.

2012 Year Ending

Dow 13,073

S&P 500 1,358

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