BAGAKOAA; November 28, 2012 And If You Look Out The Left Window

Post 748

 CLICK HERE To See Past Posts

November/2012

You are all bright astute boys and girls so you have figured out I did not post last night.  Now you might surmise why, but let me make it easy for you.

 

Yes as we called it Melissa Rycroft won against a fabulous group of dancers.  Most (including Devin and I) assumed Shawn had the fan base to walk away with the Ball award, but Melissa held up.  What a great season of DWTS.

 

(I know not only have I been banned from attending anymore Steven Segal Fan Club Meetings, but now The Arnold Schwarzenegger Appreciation Association is questioning my eligibility.)

 

It has been a busy two days.  Yesterday, I dropped Jack off at school and was intending to head to Guitar Center and buy my drums.  That was on my list of things to do. 

 

But as one of the many Murphy Laws define, "Before you do something you must do something else first."  So before I could buy my drums I had to buy a car.  Yes a car.  Most of you know how I love to buy cars.

 

The great way you are treated when you walk on a lot and the efficient manner by which they price their product.  The smooth flow of the transaction.  The total absence of a hassle.  Yeah when Devin told me it was time to get the new car she had been talking about for a couple of months, I was just ecstatic.

 

Drums shrums.  Who wants to hang out at Guitar Center when you can go to Tustin Automall, specifically Tustin GMC Buick.  Yes there is a hot spot.  It is great to shop for cars at a place that sound like you just drank sour milk and charcoal.  BUICK! BUICK! BUICK!  One of my dogs makes than noise at least once a week.

Anyhoo, Devin had done her homework and decided on the Yukon Denali Yellowstone, Yosemite, Teton, XLVTGDRTXL or something like that.  She decided on the upgraded interior which looks a lot like the Cadillac Escalade we were turning in.  A lot like it.  Really a lot like it.  Enough, that I began to wonder why we were doing the deal.  (Interesting word, calling this a deal.  I guess when you strike a deal with a lady of the night, BUT I DIGRESS)

 

Devin reminded me it was all for the dogs.  You see, we have a Ford F 250 that we usually bring all the luggage and stuff (we travel with some weird things some times.  One time I had a box of Wheat Thins handed to me when we were leaving hour house in Utah to come home to California.  I reminded Devin they sell wheat things in California.  The arm still hurts to this day.) to and from our homes in CA and Utah. 

 

However we also bring our dogs.  Now unlike Mitt Romney, we do not strap our dogs to the top of the car.  They ride in the back of the covered F 250.  Well that is on April 11-17th, May2-4th, September 26-28th and October 9th, 13th, and 18th.  Those are the only days when the weather is mild enough to have the dogs in the back of the F 250.  The rest of the year it is too hot or too cold and they ride in the back seat with the people.

 

So Devin wanted a big long vehicle to allow the dogs to ride with us in comfort all year long.  (Ignoring the fact that Jacee has a tendency to BUICK BUICK BUICK on almost every trip.).  She even got Captain seats all around.  Ah Captain Seats, makes you feel like you have rank and tenure.  Well, we do know a dog named Captain so maybe he can enjoy the ride too.

 

So Devin cut her deal and told the salesman she had checked BlueBook and expected about 28 thousand for the 2011 Escalade with 37,000 miles on it.  That was what she expected.  Man did she get after them when they said they would only allow $35,000.  She said, "Oh, Ok." in one of those really cute sexy voices.

 

Once she cut her deal, as I sat reading the IBD and the WSJ, she asked, "What do you think?" in front of Anthony, the salesman.  I looked up from my papers and said, "You can charge a hundred more if we can be out in an hour."  It was a cash deal, but they apparently did not want the $100.00.  It took about 2 hours from that point to drive off the lot.

 

When we got home, Devin was busy putting in her new floor mats and learning the vehicle as I muttered "I am going to Guitar Center now."  And I did.

 

That is where I met Tim.  A nice young kid who was very focused on putting merchandise on the store floor.  I walked up to him and said I want to buy some drums.  He looked at me and basically said, "Dah!" and continued to hang his drum keys and brush sticks.  I told him I was looking at the DW collector's series.  (That noise you just heard was Terry C. in Australia fainting, he is a great drummer and would druel for this set of drums-Dark Walnut Finish Terry)

 

Tim suddenly came over and shook my hand and I had his undivided attention for the next two hours.  I told him I would pick the kit up tomorrow and he introduced me to the Store Manager Ryan.  I told Ryan about my recent purchase of the James Burton Telecaster.  He asked if I could bring it in so he could see it.

 

He then told me about a great offer on a Gretch Country Gemtleman "Chet Atkins" Guitar.  He knew his pitch well and knew that Elvis Played that same guitar (actually there were two, one is still on display at Graceland the other was auctioned off in 2008 for $138,000. 

 

Ironically Steven Segal was rumored to have bought it.) for the first two year he played Vegas in 1969-1970.  Duane Eddy and George Harrison are tow other artists who loved the Gretch Chet Atkins.  I should have mine in about a week.

 

Today, I had Jack at school and got home in time to clean up a few trades and head to the office to put a few things away and then pick up Jack so he could help me schlep the new drums to the future home of ACMAR studios.  All of the employees at guitar center came out to bid farewell to the DW Collector's Kit.  A few had tears in their eyes.

 

I kept my promise and showed Ryan the JB Telecaster which he thought was incredible but was blown away by the autographed picture and the personal note from James Burton.  What a cool feeling, to make a guy who sees great guitars all day long grin from ear to ear holding that guitar.

 

I made it home in time to get Jack to his work out and me to my crown install.  Now they have not made me king yet, but my dentist had my permanent crown ready for me.  Dr. Bianci asked if I wanted some numbing shots and I said no.  I then said I can reach up and grab your head if you hurt me and proceeded to lift my hands next to his ears.

 

He nervously laughed.  It is amazing how a great set of drums will make you fearless.  When he finished he told me not to have alcohol for 24 hours. 

 

Then I fainted.  I can't remember the last time I went 24 hours without alcohol.  The whole time he was cranking down on my tooth I was thinking, "Glenlivet, Glenmorangie, 21 year, 25 year?"

 

I asked why no alcohol.  He explained the alcohol could break down the polymers that bind the adhesive to the crown.  I Googled his answer in doubt.  I then explained how the clean spirit of a fine single malt could actually enhance bonding agents in the 3M ESPE Scotchbond Adhesive he was using. 

 

He, thinking he was cute said "Yes that would be true of only the 21 year old or 25 year old scotch."  I replied "Damn."  He does not know that is what I have at home. 

 

I asked about eating and he said to be careful not to chew on the left side for about 24 hours.  I would be sure to ask my waiter to only serve beef from the right side of the steer. 

 

Then the Dentist, who is a doctor said, "You can eat what ever you want."  You heard it her folks my doctor said, "You can eat what ever you want!" 


Sailing Away

 

As if we don't need another analogy to describe investing, but I think I came up with one today as I was cleaning up some of my recent trades.

 

If you have been following the blog for the last few weeks, we have been maintaining our cores positions ABT, AGU, BDX, BOFI, CVX, KO,XOM, GOOG, INTC, JNJ, MCD, MSFT, PG, SYY, and WAG by taking some profit and looking for buy opportunities on the dips, all the while enjoying some decent dividends.

 

And more recently was have getting back into day trading.  Probably better described as week trading as my target window is one day to one week.  In those trades you have heard us talk about WDC, NTAP, LF, KBR, ESRX, and ANF (short).

 

All of this is in the scope of the stock market.  Well if you compare it to sailing, think of it this way.  When you sail, you can very seldom head right for your destination.  You must plot your course and use the estimates of the prevailing winds, both speed and direction to get there.

 

Now you can accomplish this by using a little day skiff or a huge multi-masted ketch or sloop.  Day trading would be a small one person sailboat like a Laser or Sunfish.  Long term investing would be like a three masted schooner.

 

Each can be fun and rewarding, but one takes more planning and work than the other.  All need one thing, wind.

 

In the case of the market day trading and investing need momentum and direction.  Just like determining which side of the boat the wind is coming from,  port or starboard, investors need to know if the direction of the market is up or down.

 

You can't physically fight the wind with a sail boat, and you shouldn't fight the overall direction of the market.  I learned that lesson just a few weeks ago when I left my sold puts out there (a bet that only makes sense when the market is on the rise) as the market was showing a red flag.

 

And just like sailing, if the sea is turbulent, trim the sails.  Take some profit reduce your sail square footage (exposure in your portfolio).  If your in a little day boat (Day Trading) keep close to shore (reduce your bets to smaller buys) or stay in the house for the day.

 

It is yet another analogy about the market, but this one is easy for me to understand.  I thought it might help some of you. Let's see what the wind threw at us today.

 

Price Performance

at 4:59PM EST 11/28/2012

 

DJIA:              12,985.11        +106.98

S&P 500:         1,409.93         +10.99

NASDAQ:        2,991.78         +23.99

 

It was not a smooth sail today.  There was a bit of a squall this morning as we drove up to the edge of the fiscal cliff and looked out the left side of the car, but then eased away with none of the passenger falling out.  

 

Poor new home sales (we got that one right) drove the market down 100 points at one time (that is what we suggested Sunday Night).  Then we listened as Boehner and Obama read us a nice night night story about how good the meetings are going despite the main issues of new taxes and entitlements has not been resolved. 

 

Then the Beige Book came out and pontificated about QE 392 going out into 2013-2014 and that little drop of acid into everyone's tea made Mr. Market kick his heals and take the three masted schooner out to deep waters. 

 

(Is that a reef ahead?)

 

Enough about what I think, let's talk about what I did. 

 

VRSN Verisign Inc. provides Internet infrastructure services to various networks worldwide. It offers registry services that operate the authoritative directory of .com, .net, .cc, .tv, and .name domain names, as well as the back-end systems for various for all .gov, .jobs, and .edu domain names.

 

Just from a technical aspect, this stock has fallen from high heavens and has attempted to hold at its 200 day average and just can't.  We see more slippage and want in on the action.  (Good catch I selling short while the market is going up.  Fighting the wind.) 

 

We shorted at 40.59, one round lot of 100 shares.  We have a break stop above at 42 and we are looking for a 8-10% drop by the weekend.  It's low on the day was 39.18 and it closed a hair above 40. 

 

In another day trade courtesy of Daily Swing Trade from The Street.com, we liked URI United Rentals, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an equipment rental company. It offers approximately 3,000 classes of equipment for rent to customers comprising construction and industrial companies, manufacturers, utilities, municipalities, homeowners, and government entities.

 

This was a three dollar stock in 2009.  We are probably in a bit early on this stock (Kind of like turning into the wind a bit too soon in sailing.) but if we can break through 41,50 in the next day or so, we could see a real nice pop.  We got in long for one lot at 40.37.  We have a stop at 38.50 and we are looking for 42.75.

 

An astute reader asked what happened to my SPY call we got into at 1.39.  We stopped out at 1.13 for a 20% loss.  Had we been patient, it was at 1.61 today.  C'est La Vi.

 

Salve Lucrum

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brian Ireland
 
 
Since 11/25/2012
BAGAKOAA;

I am not a professional investment advisor. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.

BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages

Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit.

2012 Year Ending

Dow 13,073

S&P 500 1,358

Tool Box

 

Salvay And Lewcrum Explain

Buying Call Options

Market Direction

  
  
  
  
IBD 
                           Survey Of One
Blog
  
  

 



 

  

 

hannas