BAGAKOAA; November 25, 2012 We're Makin a List

Post 747

 CLICK HERE To See Past Posts

November/2012
It has been a spectacular weekend.  This is my first Holiday weekend as a retired person.  Kinda weird because the urgency to enjoy the time off is gone.  Everyday is a day off.  It is good Jack has some down time though he takes the definition of down time to new level.  He does almost nothing till we ask.

  

Our Thanksgiving evening was grand.  From the pictures below, you can see Mrs. Cronin stuffing the hens, the hens about to enter the crematorium, the fabulous table setting, and Mrs. Cronin's almost finished Christmas Decorations on the house.  We enjoyed some football and of course you all got to hear the premiere release of Love Me As Much As Me Video

  Devin and her birds

 Pretty Birds All In a Row

 The Table of Thanksgiving

 The Lights of The Season

 

It really must be the Holidays because Devin and I actually started making our Christmas Gift List.  During that process I got notes from each of my Financial advisors letting me know the State of California has a special gift for me this year.  A new tax scheme called Proposition 30 which passed by a margin of 62% to 28%, gives us the opportunity to pay about 3% more income tax.  I knew that and that is why we did not vote for it.  What I did not know, was that it is retroactive to January 1, 2012.

 

Ho ho ho!  Yea the income from our sale of the company now allows us to give even more to the ho ho hos in Sacremento.  Only in California.

 

My mother in law, Dorothy, was here this week and that always make life interesting around the house.  She isn't that bad, but she has her moments.  Now Devin has another view of each and every moment.  I guess our own parents are harder to tolerate than other parents. 

 

Dorothy, can drive Devin crazy even easier than I can.  I don't have to worry as Dorothy does not have email, internet access, and still does not know how to use her cell phone all that well.  I know a couple of you readers know Dorothy, so I will be gentle as she is my children's grandma.

 

Now Dorothy will tell you she is not picky when it comes to food.  She is telling the truth, as she hates everything.  (That goes well beyond food by the way.  I think Dorothy has to use the word "hate" a minimum of 23 times a day.)  We have taken Dorothy to some of the greatest restaurants around and she can never find anything she really likes.

 

Ok she likes the fried chicken and mashed potato soup at Knott's Berry Farm.  (It is not soup but the consistency of the potatoes is closer to soup that potato.)  That is, in her words, "The best dinner I have ever had." 

 

Then there are the endless stories of her family from down south.  Now she is one of 14 children so she has cousins come out of the woodwork.  And they all have these quaint southern names like, Billy Joy, Aida, Wannzie May, (I can't make this stuff up), JoEllen, Ruffin, Sadie, to name a few. 

 

Anyway Dorothy will go on and on about the antics of her family in Baton Rouge, LA.  And almost all of the stories has to do with someone getting out of jail, someone going in jail, having a baby out of wedlock, someone just going on or coming off of welfare, some kid running away, some one having another cousin steal from them, someone leaving Louisiana to live with a felon in Florida, and those are some of the stories I can share in mixed company.

 

I am used to it because I find the stories absolutely entertaining because when we share an experience with Dorothy, there is always a cousin who has done it bigger, better, longer, etc.  Now these are the same gene pool that has all the sordid stories, but they always seem to out do us.  Or even worse, we share an experience and Dorothy will share one which has absolutely no relevance to the story we just told.  Sometimes Devin and I will just look at each other with that, "Where in the hell did that come from?" look on our faces.

 

That needs an example.  I will say something about Kristin and Ryan enjoying a certain museum in San Francisco which they visited a couple of weeks ago.  Dorothy will reply with something like, "Bobbie Flo used to work in a museum in Gonzales Louisiana till they found out about his warrant from Mississippi and he had to head down to Florida where he met a dancer and she worked in museum too."

 

Like I said, I kind just go with the flow (not Bobby Flo), but it drives Devin nuts as she has this fear that somehow she might have a toe in that gene pool.  I am convinced she does not, but I think it keeps Devin up at night.

 

Now I did have a moment this weekend, I believe on Thanksgiving Day.  I was alone with Dorothy and she was playing one of those four dollar electronic video poker games.  Devin was not home.  I believe she was driving around the neighborhood looking for another family to join. 

 

Now before I share this moment with you I must refresh your memory as to my definition of hell.  The Bible mentions Hell about 54 times, but the definition is fuzzy.  There was an ancient Greek word Gehanna which implied the fires of a hellish place, but it was also a valley near Jerusalem where they would burn infected bodies so they kept an eternal fire there to burn the bodies.  But I digress, (quite profoundly I might add).

 

My definition of Hell is skiing to Rap Music.  Well after this weekend, I can add to that definition of Hell.  Skiing to rap music while someone shares with me their detailed explanations of their video poker plays for the last three years.  I have another reader who insists on telling me his slot machine plays and he does it only because he knows my eye starts to twitch and my lips quiver while he is telling me.

 

Dorothy began telling me some off her 16,493 attempts to win money playing video poker.  Here are few of her brief stories; "And then there was the night I was the (fill in the blank) Hotel and I was dealt two twos and even though it was not a winning hand I was tired so I kept the two twos and I got two more.  I wish I had put in another nickel."  "And then when we went to the (fill in the blank) hotel, I was only going to play 20 dollars and after about 25 minutes I was down to my last quarter and I should have put more in but didn't and you know I got three kings and I won back a dollar twenty five and those last 5 tries I didn't get a thing?"  SHOOT ME NOW!

 

By that time I was eating raw Cornish Game Hens in the hopes of dying from Salmonella.

 

Today we sent Dorothy home.  Devin is slowly recovering and hates me less than she did earlier this morning.  I escaped to talk to my buddies at breakfast.  Apparently that was cruel to my lovely wife who attacked me with a mechanical reindeer when I got home.  I hope to make up to her by preparing stuffed jalapeno's and blackened Sea Bass atop a roasted Bok Choy and teriyaki infused fried rice.  Oh yeah and gallons of New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc.  Let's hope it works.

 

Well it worked well.  She and Jack loved it.  Everyone is happy except my right hand.  I chose not to use a glove to seed the Jalapeno's and my right hand is paying the price.  It is quite warm as I type this.  The stuffed peppers were not too warm, but my hand is really warm. 

 

I hope I have a hot hand in the market this week.   Oooooo nice segue.

  

 

Look There In The Sky

 

It's a red flag, no it's a yellow flag, no wait for it, IT'S A GREEN FLAG.  Ok, I find it hard to believe as well, but according to the positive sentiment in Barron's, bullish technical indicators, and chart patterns (according to Recognia, Schwab's really cool charting platform) O'Neil at the IBD confirms, we are in a confirmed uptrend.

 

Friday's volume was light, but enough to warrant it being a follow through day.  That defines this recent upswing as an uptrend or Green Flag. 

 

What does that mean to you as a trader or investor (there is a difference boys and girls).  Well hopefully you took some profit during the Red Flag flying since October 10th.  You have some cash and you have been reviewing your watch lists.

 

Take some baby steps to get back into the market.  Here are few trades we have and will be executing tomorrow. 

 

In a contrarian move we a selling ANF short.  This is the same trade we made last week and got stopped out when the stock continued up.  We are looking to sell short at 45, looking for a quick turn (by weeks end) to 42 and we will have a protective stop at 47.

 

This is a good time to consider selling naked puts against core positions.  Go to the CBOE website and get know the tactic of selling puts as it is a good strategy when the market is headed up.  We were doing quite well with that tactic until the first week of October.  Mmmm.  That was when we flew the Red Flag.

 

Do your home work talk to your broker so you understand the liability of the strategy, but give it some thought.

 

Here are a couple we are entering tonight.  MSFT January 28 put limit sale of 1.00 a contract.  That makes my entry price 27.00 if it goes below $28.00.  If not I keep the 1.00 a contract.

 

PG is offering a January Put for 1.80 making my entry an attractive $68.20.  If not, I'll keep the 1.80 a contract. 

 

Again, only consider this strategy on stocks you really like and want to own.

 

I will also try and catch some AMZN and EBAY long tomorrow as the success of Black Friday should force these to on line retailers to have a great Cyber Monday.

 

Good luck and let's keep this green flag flying for a while.

 

Here is what we have to keep an eye on this week.

 

Monday

 

The Chicago Fed and Dallas Fed activity reports are released.  Look for Dallas to be scorching hot.  Chicago will be meza meza.  Assuming we still hear nice things out of DC and we choose to ignore the bad news in Europe and the cease fire holds and the Cyber Monday expectations are met, look for another 100 points on the Dow to the positive.  (Please not all the connective ands)

 

Tuesday

 

We have a couple of Fed Bank presidents vying for sound bites early in the morning so it could be leaks before Bernanke Speaks later in the day.  We are guessing more dovish banter about keeping rates low in perpetuity or Bernanke is replaced. 

 

We will also get the yo-yo report for durable goods.  We have guessed wrong the last four months.  Let's go for five.  The consensus is basically flat and we feel we will see a downward drop this month. 

 

Consumer confidence is expected to be up a wee little bit.  Look for a positive surprise. 

 

Look for the Richmond fed report to be a downer.

 

The market will continue its euphoria as long as the folk in DC continue to lie to us about the progress we are making.  Heck let's call it another up day say 50 points on the DOW.

 

Wednesday

 

A lot of folk will be watching the New Home sales numbers.  It is expected to be flat.  We see some disappointment.  Our guess is based upon the sandy factor and the fact that the last mortgage app report was heavy on refis.

 

The New Beige Book is here.  The New Beige Book is here.

The New Beige Book is here.  The New Beige Book is here.

 

Nothing there to shale the world.  We will see creeping improvement in productivity and employment and home inventories shrinking.

 

Look for a little correcting today as I am sure there will be a realization of bad Euronews and or Middle East unrest.  Let's call it 100 points down.

 

Thursday

 

GDP will be up as expected.  Maybe even a bit better.  The Administration will take all the credit. 

 

Jobless claims will fall below 400K.  Ditto.

 

The Kansas City Fed reports.  (That reminds me of a little city outside of Las Vegas called Pahrump.  The saying for Vegas is "What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.  The Saying for Pahrump is "What happens in Pahrump, who cares.")  Ok they should do better than expected, and you will hear two steer say Yahoo!

 

Another good day in the market.

Friday

 

Look for personal income to come in a little lower than expected and spending to hit the mark. 

 

There will be some selling on Friday but a gentle easy going week in the market.  It should be up 2-3% on the week.  If you are a gambler, play a short term call option on the SPY.  Use only the Vegas Money.

 

Talks to you soon.

Salve Lucrum

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brian Ireland
 
 
Since 11/25/2012
BAGAKOAA;

I am not a professional investment advisor. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.

BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages

Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit.

2012 Year Ending

Dow 13,073

S&P 500 1,358

Tool Box

 

Salvay And Lewcrum Explain

Buying Call Options

Market Direction

  
  
  
  
IBD 
                           Survey Of One
Blog
  
  

 



 

  

 

hannas