Homework at Home
Price Performance
4:56PM EST 11/16/2012
DJIA: 12,588.31 +45.93
S&P 500: 1,359.88 +6.55
NASDAQ: 2,853.13 +16.19
Ok my Friday say it Black Friday Doomsday scenario did not happen.
Just to refresh your memory:
"Since I am so well read today, let see what went on and what might move the market tomorrow.
Italy, Spain and The Netherlands are all in recession and Spain and Germany on the edge. A lot of folk are watching that real close.
The news today that BP will have to pay 4.5 Billion as part of their settlement opens the door for the civil lawsuits. Look for the number to be in the 10-14 billion range and that will hold oil stocks down a few days once announced. I mention it because the energy sector will drap the S&P and DOW even lower.
A clever analyst from Barclay's brought up the 53rd week issue on the PETM call. That could bring into question quite a few of the marginally positive retail numbers we have seen in the last couple of weeks.
The Philly and Empire Mfg reports will define the loss of factory production from Sandy. It will not be pretty. Neither will the employement number as there are still a bunch of folk out of work.
Late today, it was announced that the FHA is almost 14 billion more in debt. I am sure we will come to rescue again. The administration has already set in motion a write off program.
The temporary lull in oil prices will probably end now with tension getting higher and higher in the Gaza strip. Hamas and Israel are lobbing bombs at each other almost everyday now. The White House is playing a very low key role in this lose lose situation.
All of that does not bode well for nice options expiration day tomorrow. This could be a very black Friday?"
No one cared about that stuff. Boehner and the President were playing nice in the sandbox and that was all the market seemed to care about. It was enough to give some traction to some support level in the indexes.
The cover of Barron's was about the war between AAPL and Samsung.
We took some profits in AAPL on Friday as we do not like the speed of the slide. I know a couple of you are picking up AAPL at 520ish and it may be a good move. We had given up about 80% of our gains and did not want to give up any more.
Barron's had a special report this week covering ETFs. For those of you who do not want to do the hour a week of homework on each holding you have and don't like giving up 1-2% on you mutual fund, you really should consider ETFs. This article is great. With this article, and a few online resources ( http://etfdb.com, Morningstar, and http://xtf.com) you can be saving fees and placing monies where you want to grow.
Here is a quick example. I know several of you recently bought into high yielding dividend mutual funds. A quick scan of Morningstar and XTF both selected BOND, Pimco's Total Return ETF. The annual fee is .55%, more than half of any similar mutual fund. Do your homework. A half a point income is awfully hard to come by.
David Englandar writes a good piece about SPA, Spartan. WE DO NOT OWN SPA, but I recommend the article so you can see the type of research the Barron's writer's put into an article. It is a good primer on how to see the components of value.
Gene Epstein does a great analysis of what Taxes will look like come January 1, 2013 assuming the selfish greedy 1 per centers pay their fair share. Here is what it looks like:
(Courtesy of Barron's, well they don't really know, but you should buy the issue.)
Yeah even with the uber rich paying their fair share more than half of the 506 billion in new income will come from sources other than the uber rich.
We are working on a few trades for Monday morning. Once I got them wiggled out, we will drop you a note before the opening. Here are a few things we are watching for next week.
Monday
My mother in law is coming to town. It is a quiet day in the markets. Existing homes sales are expected to soften a bit but look for a disappointment and a drop in the market of the gain we saw on Friday, say a half a point on light volume.
Tuesday
The same story could apply to housing starts. It is expected to be down a bit, but the Sandy effect will be larger than anticipated. At least that is this humble man's opinion.
Wednesday
Turkey day Eve will see a day early jobs report which is expecting to come down to about 415,000. I am thinking we might touch or break 400 which will be a nice surprise. Look for a disappointing energy inventory report. Not much impact on the markets though.
Thursday/Friday
Look for a glut of tryptophan and a real sleepy market. Pent up demand on the downside will greet us On Monday morning.
Salve Lucrum
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