BAGAKOAA; November 17, 2012 I Can't Hear You

Post 742

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November/2012

First off I have to tell you I can not hear out of my left ear.  Sorry, its my right ear, but of you were facing me, which you kinda are, it would be the ear on the left.  Ok it is my right ear.  Ya see I get these really nasty wax plugs and the only way to get them out is to go to urgent care and have a procedure called curettage(sp?).

 

They soften the wax and get these crochet hooks called curettes or ear picks, and go digging for the plugs.  It is a blast.  It can make your toes curl.  All I can think about is how my dogs scratch their stomach with their back legs while I rub their ears and wish I was that limber.

 

Way too much information and felony digressing.

 

We did not post yesterday as we were a bit busy and we went to the Santa Margarita Catholic High School Eagle Football team.  Harry and team delivered another amazing night of spine tingling entertainment.  I was giving Mike and Dennis CPR in the last minute of the game. 

 

After a slow start, we were behind 21 to 7 in the fourth quarter.  We tied things up with about two minutes left.  St. Bonaventure looked good and the game was determined by turnovers.  We tied it up and almost pulled off a miracle, but went into over time.  St. Bon, did the business quickly and for some reason chose to go for the conversion and came up short.

 

We needed a TD and extra point to pull it off.  It was not to be.  The final was 27 to 21 St. Bon.  It was a great battle and a classy game.

 

By the time I got home, I realized I had taken care of the dogs, the cats, Man Child, but forgot to have dinner myself.  It was Cheerios and banana's at 10:45 PM for me. 

 

This morning, I got the animals squared away and headed off to the club for breakfast with the guys.  I am getting really good at this child abandonment program.  I let Jack know I would be back about 8:30.  He was still sound asleep when I got home.

 

It was a great visit, just one on one with one of my mentors, Tim T., one of my financial advisors.  He is a proud Yale alumni and assists with their screening process for potential students.  He was sharing with me the caliber of seniors coming out of SMCHS and he was duly impressed. 

 

I shared with him my recent VIX/VXX option set backs and he paid me some very nice compliments and was very supportive.  It was a nice breakfast.

 

Once home, I started trying to make sure the home was in Bristol Fashion for my lovely brides return home.  I solved my Devin's stuff quandary.  I gave everything to our cleaning crew so that when Devin asked me where something is I could tell her, and be absolutely sure of my response. 

 

I really do have a problem remembering things.  About a month ago, Dennis and I were in Utah and I had a keypad installed outside our garage door so our landscape guy and the neighbors could have access to the garage with out setting off the alarm.  The garage guy came and viola it was all set.

 

Today Devin asked me for the garage code and I'll be damned if I can remember the number.  I felt like such a dork.  I know it is one of 3 combination of numbers, but none seem to be working.  I gave it to my gardener, but now he has lost it?  I fool like such a feel.

 

Today, Jack (aka ACMAR Studio's warehouse manager) and I moved supplies and storage stuff to the building.  He was working quite hard and I was proud to take him to Hanna's tonight.  It was cool havin a guys night out with my son.  And the meal . . .

 

Austin took real good care of us.  Jack enjoyed their sausage rigatoni, and I had the fish special which sounded great.  Fresh Mahi Mahi over a bed of vegetarian fried rice on grilled Bok Choy on a small pool of a teriyaki reduction sauce.  OMG it was one of the best fish dishes I have ever enjoyed. 

 

I washed it down with a 2010 Massimo Prestige Vineyards Sauvignon Blanc.  

 

That pour was pumpin the nose with apple blossoms, citrus blooms, some metal shaving smell that worked somehow.  In the mouth, the first swig had a metallic sting to it then you could taste the citrus, apples, and apricots.  I had one glass that made me wish I brought Jack's learning permit so I could caress this wine the way it deserved.  Great wine, great meal, and great kid.  FYI, the wine runs about 12-15 a bottle retail so anybody could enjoy it.

 

Here is a link to a quick video tour of the new building.  CLICK HERE HOPE YOU ENJOY.


Homework at Home

 

Price Performance

4:56PM EST 11/16/2012

 

DJIA:              12,588.31         +45.93

S&P 500:         1,359.88          +6.55

NASDAQ:        2,853.13         +16.19

 

Ok my Friday say it Black Friday Doomsday scenario did not happen.

 

Just to refresh your memory:

 

"Since I am so well read today, let see what went on and what might move the market tomorrow.

 

Italy, Spain and The Netherlands are all in recession and Spain and Germany on the edge.  A lot of folk are watching that real close.

 

The news today that BP will have to pay 4.5 Billion as part of their settlement opens the door for the civil lawsuits.  Look for the number to be in the 10-14 billion range and that will hold oil stocks down a few days once announced.  I mention it because the energy sector will drap the S&P and DOW even lower.

 

A clever analyst from Barclay's brought up the 53rd week issue on the PETM call.  That could bring into question quite a few of the marginally positive retail numbers we have seen in the last couple of weeks.

 

The Philly and Empire Mfg reports will define the loss of factory production from Sandy.  It will not be pretty.  Neither will the employement number as there are still a bunch of folk out of work.

 

Late today, it was announced that the FHA is almost 14 billion more in debt.  I am sure we will come to rescue again.  The administration has already set in motion a write off program. 

 

The temporary lull in oil prices will probably end now with tension getting higher and higher in the Gaza strip.  Hamas and Israel are lobbing bombs at each other almost everyday now.  The White House is playing a very low key role in this lose lose situation.

 

All of that does not bode well for nice options expiration day tomorrow.  This could be a very black Friday?" 

 

No one cared about that stuff.  Boehner and the President were playing nice in the sandbox and that was all the market seemed to care about.  It was enough to give some traction to some support level in the indexes.

 

The cover of Barron's was about the war between AAPL and Samsung.  

 

We took some profits in AAPL on Friday as we do not like the speed of the slide.  I know a couple of you are picking up AAPL at 520ish and it may be a good move.  We had given up about 80% of our gains and did not want to give up any more.

 

Barron's had a special report this week covering ETFs.  For those of you who do not want to do the hour a week of homework on each holding you have and don't like giving up 1-2% on you mutual fund, you really should consider ETFs.  This article is great.  With this article, and a few online resources ( http://etfdb.com, Morningstar, and http://xtf.com) you can be saving fees and placing monies where you want to grow. 

 

Here is a quick example.  I know several of you recently bought into high yielding dividend mutual funds.  A quick scan of Morningstar and XTF both selected BOND, Pimco's Total Return ETF.  The annual fee is .55%, more than half of any similar mutual fund.  Do your homework.  A half a point income is awfully hard to come by.

 

David Englandar writes a good piece about SPA, Spartan.  WE DO NOT OWN SPA, but I recommend the article so you can see the type of research the Barron's writer's put into an article.  It is a good primer on how to see the components of value.

 

Gene Epstein does a great analysis of what Taxes will look like come January 1, 2013 assuming the selfish greedy 1 per centers pay their fair share.  Here is what it looks like:

 

(Courtesy of Barron's, well they don't really know, but you should buy the issue.)

 

Yeah even with the uber rich paying their fair share more than half of the 506 billion in new income will come from sources other than the uber rich.

 

We are working on a few trades for Monday morning.  Once I got them wiggled out, we will drop you a note before the opening.  Here are a few things we are watching for next week.

 

Monday

 

My mother in law is coming to town.  It is a quiet day in the markets.  Existing homes sales are expected to soften a bit but look for a disappointment and a drop in the market of the gain we saw on Friday, say a half a point on light volume.

 

Tuesday

 

The same story could apply to housing starts.  It is expected to be down a bit, but the Sandy effect will be larger than anticipated.  At least that is this humble man's opinion.

 

Wednesday

 

Turkey day Eve will see a day early jobs report which is expecting to come down to about 415,000.  I am thinking we might touch or break 400 which will be a nice surprise.  Look for a disappointing energy inventory report.  Not much impact on the markets though.

 

Thursday/Friday

 

Look for a glut of tryptophan and a real sleepy market.  Pent up demand on the downside will greet us On Monday morning.    

 

 

Salve Lucrum

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brian Ireland
 
 
Since 10/10/2012
BAGAKOAA;

I am not a professional investment advisor. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.

BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages

Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit.

2012 Year Ending

Dow 13,073

S&P 500 1,358

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