BAGAKOAA; October 16, 2012 Just Talk As Though I'm Not Here!

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October/2012

Today we had a very interesting meeting.  We brought together our brain trust of folk who would be responsible for takin' care of business should I or Devin or both of us met a untimely demise.

 

Some people (and I know a couple of readers specifically) prefer not to talk about life after their life.  That sounded weird.  We have some mechanical reasons for putting these things in order involving taxes and trusts.

 

It was not so bad.  After talking to my daughter, she was very relieved to know the mechanics of a trust and what some of our specific wishes might be.  I encourage everyone regardless of income, wealth, or age to plan and share the specifics of what you want done.  Here is a good reason.

 

We all will die.  Perhaps not on the same day, but our existence here on Earth is not in perpetuity.  I have personally seen Johnny Carson die several times in one week before his ultimate demise.  I watched Letterman die so badly about week ago, I was actually wondering if he were actually dead.

 

In the end, the gig is up.  Elvis and you will leave the building.  So don't wait. Take care of these things now.  I have seen families deal with the passing of a loved one where everything is squared a way, and it is a much more palatable experience than seeing what it is like to start from scratch. 

 

If my mom had made her arrangements for her casket, she would not have ended up in a fine balsa wood box.  Don't laugh, balsa is really cool wood and with the Thompson's Water Seal, I am sure it held up several rainy seasons.

 

Seriously, despite you thinking that you will live forever and you will beat the odds, think about the loved one or ones who will have to deal with all the details of your passing.  It is not fair to them, in fact I would say, if you really love and care for that person or persons, prove it by sitting down and at the very least explain your wishes regarding, extended health care (this is very detailed explain how much effort you want invested in keeping you around.  How much and how long you would want hydration, food and life support are all things to consider.  I have chose hydration with 21 year old single malt until I can't remember the words to Danny Boy or two weeks which ever comes first.), funeral arrangements, memorial services, memorial donations, how to pay for those things, have cash available for the grey period between your passing and death certificate processing, who and how to maintain the current income your estate now enjoys, where the will is, where relevant trust information is, what attorney you want handling specific matters, where your list of contacts are, who you want notified and who will notify them, if appropriate what your significant other or others need to know about your probate status, all the assets and debt you have including account numbers, where to find your historical tax records, any current employment records including 401K information or bonus and salaries due, and of course, what kind of wine you want serviced at your celebration of life.  And put this explanation in a letter.

 

Now it would have been easy for me to plagiarize this list from that handed to us by our FA at AYCO, but he expressly asked me not to share this information.  So I did what I always do, I Googled "Executor Checklist" and found a wealth of executor's checklists to choose from.  I would suggest you do the same, as it will help you craft your note to your loved ones expressing your wishes.

 

After a long meeting talking about being incapacitated and trusts and taxes and feeding tubes, it seemed appropriate that several of us went to McCormick and Schmicks Seafood for lunch.  A dozen raw oysters and a fish taco always makes me feel better after talking about death and taxes.  It was a great lunch.

 

Thank you for everyone who sent ideas about the hole and leaking water in our back yard.  Opening an iconic religious miracle based destination was one of the most interesting suggestions.  I have checked with the Vatican and discovered all major Saints and the Holy Family are booked till after the Holidays for personal appearances.  We hope to have the issue resolved long before then or I am guaranteed a cameo by Noah. 

 

Our closet is almost complete, which is good as I am wearing clothes only because I can find them, not because they are appropriate for the weather, in fashion, fit, match, or are even mine.  I do fill out the sports bra better than I would like.  By tomorrow, we should be able to start putting some things back into this amazing closet.

 

Tonight we are having a Hanna's fix.  They have their fall winter menu working now and they have (Ben, your gonna love it.) a prosciutto ham, pear cheese salad.  Yes the same one I pontificated about all last winter.  I personally sold about 35 of those salads to complete strangers.  My commission check was huge.  (Ok, before everyone call's Dave, there are no commissions on selling his menu items.)

 

Here is one of the specials on the menu.  It is a Pot Pie.  Sean made one special for me, he called the bucket pie as it was as big as a bucket.

Brian L., counselor extraordinaire will be joined us for this lovely evening.  We only wish his lovely wife Elizabeth was with him as well.

 

Jack is quickly getting caught up from the day he took off last week and we just found out he aced a biology test.  He seems to do well under pressure.  Perhaps we should travel every weekend?


Are we fooling ourselves?

 

The first few days of earnings season seem to be going well.  However the BEATs as we have seen are beats of adjusted earning expectations.  More importantly the consensus has indicated that this season should be disappointing.  So are we beating poor guesses or doing better than the bad case scenario we are had defined for our self.

 

Either way we had another great day.  The S&P is back up to 1,454, closing in on that 1,465 resistance we warned you about last week.  KO missed the galss a bit by missing top line sales, but Goldman Sacs GS had a good quarter (we got coffee and doughnuts this morning), JNJ and UNH also beat with no apparent accounting gimmicks.

 

Don't get excited yet we are still in a Red Flag condition.  Do your homework, brush up your watch lists, and be ready to take some of that cash you generated by taking some profit and find some new plays.

 

JNJ was a solid beat with sales coming from new drugs like Zytiga for prostate and Incivek for hepatits C while Tylenol keeps chugging along.  With a forward looking P/E under 13, and little debt and a 3.5% dividend throw, long term investors (12-24 months) might consider this for their watch list.  More homework to do.

 

Gross Margins and Operating Margins at United Health UNH made it possible to beat expectations.  With a price to book under 2.0, little debt, and a forward looking P?E around 10, another one for the watch list.

 

WE DO NOT OWN JNJ OR UNH.

 

Bob "Hutch" got back to me on his feedback about AAPL.  Here is what he had to say:

 

"Hi Brian,

 

Apple will go up in short term, they are announcing a new tablet on 23rd Oct.  But this link will kill Apple in Tablet game,  

 

(It refers to the Kindle Fire HD 8.9" 4G LTE Wireless)

 

This is a serious tablet big time and Amazon does not mind losing money to get you in their store.

 

On the Phone Front Google and Samsung have declared war on Apple.  The trouble with Apple is they huge enemies now.

 

Long term I would not own the stock.

 

Bob"

 

I don't share his sentiment though I am not adding to my AAPL position unless I get PUT with more shares at $625 a share.  AAPL holds 4.1% of the Salve Lucrum portfolio if you extract the cash position we hold.  We are 22% cash and 12.6% fixed income at the moment.  This refers to our fun money, not our major asset allocations. By comparison, our top equity holding is BRK/A at 8.5% of our portfolio followed by MSFT at 5.5%.  We will give a detailed spreadsheet for anyone who asks.

 
Salve Lucrum

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brian Ireland
 
 
Since 10/10/2012
BAGAKOAA;

I am not a professional investment advisor. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.

BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages

Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit.

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