Every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts, and investment & market strategists about where home prices are headed over the next five years. They then average the projections of all 100+ experts into a single number.  

The results of their latest survey include:

• Home values will appreciate by 4.4% in 2014.        
• The cumulative appreciation will be 19.5% by 2018.  This would result in an average annual appreciation of 3.6% over the next 5 years.        
• Even the experts making up the most bearish quarter of the survey still are projecting a cumulative appreciation of 9.4% by 2018.

As a point of reference the median price in Cumberland County at year end 2013 was $241,000, representing a 7.1% increase over 2012.  YTD, the median price is down - to $225,000, which probably would surprise most people.   

As you look at each individual month, however, there is a wide variation in the mix of homes sold (i.e. price ranges) that lead to dramatic differences in monthly median prices.   

For this reason, it is very important to look at the most micro-level of data available when trying to interpret (i.e. make sense of) actual prices.  For more local information, visit Sales Data.    

According to Market Watch, the federal government had a budget surplus of $114 billion in April. That is $1 billion more than a year ago and would be the largest April surplus since 2008. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates receipts were 2% higher in April versus the same month a year ago. Spending rose 2.5%.    

For the fiscal year to date, CBO estimates the deficit to be $301 billion, down $187 billion compared to the same period in 2013. The fiscal year runs from October to September. 

Strange things are going on with interest rates and mortgage applications.  According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), loan applications fell a seasonally adjusted 1.2% last week, despite anticipated higher home sales.

Mortgage rates are now at their lowest level since June of 2013 for a fixed rate conforming loan.  

Mortgage applications to refinance home loans have fallen precipitously since last summer, when rates jumped over a full percentage point. Refinance applications are down 62% over the last year and now represent only 52% of total applications, compared to over 80% in early 2013.  

Applications to purchase a home - an indicator of future home sales - fell 1% last week, but the year-ago comparison continues to widen. Two weeks ago purchase applications were down 11% vs 1 year ago; last week the annual drop increased to 15%.  Interesting.