At the time of writing we have a fraction over 7 billion people alive on the planet. If I told you that this was currently still increasing by 1.2 percent per annum it might not have too much affect on you as you might be inclined to think that with such a small number this isn't too much of a big deal.
However when you start to think of this growth as being exponential so not only is it 1.2 percent on this year but it is also likely to be 1.2 percent next year on the increased figure then the actual amount of people alive on the planet is going up by more and more comparatively each year.
Dr Albert Bartlett tells us that it is one thing to look at the growth rate of any particular entity but quite another to look at its doubling time as a consequence and without getting too technical the magic number that we need to think about is 70. Taking that magic number and dividing it by a 1 percent growth figure per annum we can work out that it would take 70 years for that entity to double in quantity.
Therefore if we have a figure of 7 billion people alive on the planet today growing at 1.2 percent per annum we can soon work out that if that growth rate was to stay the same we would have 14 billion people alive on the planet in just 58 years, less than one lifetime and that is a figure perhaps a little more worthy of our consideration.
Similarly we can work out how much of a commodity we need to have by way of supply if we know the current growth rate for demand. Our modern population has been built on a cheap and abundant oil supply. Oil as a commodity experienced an average of 1.3 percent annual growth in demand throughout 2001 - 2010. So based on those figures in 54 years time we will need to double the amount of all oil which we have ever consumed to be able to sustain such a demand, current estimates are that we only have an equal amount and not all that will be able to be used as it becomes increasingly difficult to extricate.
These two calculations alone should tell us that these current growth rates are unsustainable and whether nature does it or ourselves they will have to fall to nothing if not beyond, how dramatically they will fall and where they will level off will depend on what alternative energy sources we can find to replace oil and in what quantity.
Something has got to give and I predict very soon all this continued growth is going to come to an abrupt halt, it is just a question of when, one thing is for sure however it is going to happen on our watch or that of our children and if all of our social models are geared towards a continual growing economy and population we are in for a big shock if we haven't sourced a viable alternative. Initially there will be an awful lot of disgruntled people that will feel let down by the system having invested all their lives into its ongoing success, however there will be little time to get angry as survival by that point will be more imperative.
Our mission should we choose to accept it is to find a more sustainable alternative now and for all, but it will need all our efforts to bring about the change that is necessary and a totally new way of thinking about things in the way that we live our lives and do business, both locally and globally operating in a more loving and compassionate way.
The good news is we have the collective genius to resolve the problem. I firmly believe that there is a purpose to all of us being here at this time and it will come down to all what we are most talented at, passionate about and what we want to see changed in the world once we become more aware of the likely scenario ahead of us and start to focus more of our time on a new way of operating beyond exponential growth.
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