First Global Study on Climate Change and Arabica Predicts 'Severe Losses'

April 27, 2015 12:59 pm

Arabica coffees will have to be grown at higher elevations in almost all the world's producing regions to survive the projected effects of climate change by 2050, according to the first global study of its kind, which is being made public by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT).

Researchers suggest severe losses in global arabica production are imminent if coffee growing doesn't shift toward higher elevations in many countries. Such a shift, by virtue of limited land availability, will or may hurt many of the world's key growing regions, particularly in parts of Mesoamerica and Asia. Conversely, increases in temperature and rainfall could add some suitable coffee-growing land in specific areas, particularly some close to the equator in South America.

"Major producers - Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia and Colombia - together producing 65 percent of the global market share - are set to experience severe losses if adaptation measures are not taken," CIAT said in response to the published results.

The study suggests that Brazil, by far the world's largest producer, could face losses of up to 25 percent if adaptation measures are not taken. "Brazil's highly mechanized, commercial coffee production is not suitable for intercropping with trees, which could provide shade and bring temperatures down," said study co-author Dr. Peter Läderach. "That could mean shifting production east - from Central America to eastern Africa and the Asia-Pacific, if strategies are not put in place to adapt."

The research was funded by CIAT's CGIAR program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, although CIAT says the program played no part in the design or analysis of the study. The study follows numerous regional studies that have yielded similar projections for the future of arabica coffee.

Researchers based the 2050 climate change projections using 21 global circulation models and 62,000 specific location points, suggesting that in many locations, 2 degree celsius increases in temperature and increases in weather events such as rain can be expected. Generally, the study globally predicts decreases in climatic suitability at lower altitudes and higher latitudes.

Here is some regional and global analysis directly from the study (CIAT plans to eventually release the raw data here).

All the coffee-producing countries in America, Africa, Asia, and Oceania would maintain some suitability for growing Arabica coffee. Colombia, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Mexico, and Guatemala have extensive areas of land at high elevation that receive sufficient rainfall. An upward move of their coffee-growing areas could moderate the overall impact of climate change on their countries' coffee industry. An important proviso is that the areas at higher elevation are available for conversion to coffee farms, are accessible, have suitable soil conditions, and whose current or future inhabitants are willing to grow Arabica coffee rather than other crops. Very often, these conditions may not all come together, with the consequence that Arabica coffee production may locally decline.

The regions where Arabica coffee would be least affected by higher temperatures are East Africa with the exception of Uganda and Papua New Guinea in the Pacific. Mesoamerica would be the most affected region, specifically Nicaragua and El Salvador. Since Arabica coffee is an important export of Mesoamerica, we expect severe economic impacts here. As previously suggested by Zullo, strongly negative effects of climate change are also expected in Brazil the world's largest Arabica producer, as well as India and Indochina. Regions predicted to suffer intermediate impacts include the Andes, parts of southern Africa and Madagascar, and Indonesia, with significant differences among islands.

No matter if we agree on what is causing our earth to warm, we all will have to face the results.  Some of us will see little of the impact simply because of our age, however, those that are on the younger side of the age equation will most likely need to become quite innovative and willing to adapt.  By that time The Alpaca Bean Coffee will be grown higher in the mountain ranges of Peru and Bolivia...hopefully our future coffee men and women will continue to adapt their roasting routine so that the brand will continue to be loved and shared among many a friend to come!  :o)

Grand Opening!!!!!!!

The Southern Alpaca Connection opened its doors with a bang on

 May 9, 2015!

The Historic Downtown area of Lavonia, GA was alive with the music of Borderlyne, and the area hosted real live, pronkin', full of energy, alpacas from Walnut Knoll Farm.  We are excited about finally being able to show off the totally rebuilt historic building that houses the Southern Alpaca Connection.  So if you are in the neighborhood please drop by, enjoy, and tell all your buds as well...even if the Grand Opening has come and gone, believe me it still is Grand to be open!

Well, I have been writing over and over that we were going to open soon! We went and did it that is for sure, and I would like to give you a tour of this exciting store...soooo, hang on and hang in there 'til the end.

Welcome to the Southern Alpaca Connection...we decided to strike this in stone so that folks will know that this is, indeed, a rock solid commitment to raising the bar for alpaca stores and alpaca product presentation.

We are open and ready to welcome all that come to enjoy our open, friendly, and beautiful venue

As you walk into the door, you will immediately notice that The Southern Alpaca Connection housed in a fresh, and totally remodeled setting. Exposed brick that date back to the time of the original construction of the building in 1898.

Judy and I looked long and hard to find just the right furnishings to accent the time period of the venue, while seeking to enhance the shopping experience of our customers. You will notice the high ceiling and lighting of the period as well. We removed all heating and air duct work and replaced with units that are quiet, and cost effective.

The yellow bow is from our ribbon cutting and the flowers are from a good new friend in Lavonia. The windows you see had been bricked up...they are no more. The brightness and cheerfulness this adds to the store setting is really hard to describe.

I will let the pictures tell the story for now.....

From clothing to yarn and all the tools needed to bring the two states together right here in one place. Not only that we have a class room just waiting for you to join friends and new friends in creation time. Knitting, spinning, weaving, and many other classes will be offered for the beginner as well as the experienced craftsperson.

Now that you have seen the major attraction, we will take a stroll to the rear of the store.

Two of Walnut Knoll Farm's Champion Herdsires guard the entrance! Do not worry, they are real gentlemen!

Welcome to Alpaca Java Joe's Coffee Cave. Well stocked with appliances, accessories for the coffee lover, and of course, plenty of The Alpaca Bean Coffee for purchase. We also have a coffee nook for those that just cannot wait until they get home for this fantastic brew!

Well, looking at the old clock on the wall, it is time to let you go so you can begin planning your trip to beautiful historic downtown Lavonia, Georgia. The sooner the better is all we can say.

There is much more to experience when you visit...pictures are nice but real life is even better!!!  We look forward to having you with us soon...take care, drive carefully and we will have the coffee on for you!            

On a Personal Note

February 2014

The vision for The Southern Alpaca Connection began to develop with the purchase of a historic building in Lavonia, Georgia.  The developing idea of having a location that could place an exclamation point on the emerging alpaca products being developed by Georgia farmers as well as other farms in the southeastern United States, and throughout the entirety of the United States and Canada, was strengthened by the support of four other North Georgia Alpaca Farms.

Once we purchased the building at 1192 East Main Street, we asked those four farms to join us for a strategy meeting.  We discussed the ins and outs of where we all needed to be headed and this gave Jude and I a direction to follow.

We had a vision, we now had a direction, and we had a historic building.  The journey had begun, and we plowed into the total renovation of the dream building.  The only problem was that we soon understood the headaches that are a part of such a venture...the historic building we had bought, that had looked so good, and was praised so highly by all in this beautiful community, should have been condemned as unfit for occupancy.

As I recall, it was just at this moment, a moment that found us debating our wisdom of undertaking such a task, a young woman walked into the destruction zone, talked of our wishes and hopes and dreams...then she asked us when we would like to open.  We told her by November (it now was early September), she asked us if she could pray with us.  She enveloped us with a prayer that encouraged while it engaged us to pursue the goal we had originally set.

Shortly, we found that a gentleman of our church was looking to find work in his field of choice...contracting.  We called him and asked him if he could take over the work ahead of us and apply his expertise to getting it done in an expert, and speedy manner.

The original concept had us using parts of the building as they existed, however, each new day brought about a further realization that it was not to be.  Matter of fact, it became quickly apparent that none of the elements of the building would remain.  The entire project then took on a very different outlook.  We knew we would be involved in a lengthy but, hopefully, successful effort to bring a historic dam of a lady back to her full glory.

We now can fast forward to the near opening of the store...one week from the Grand Opening.  We set up a tent in front of the store during Lavonia's Spring Festival.  We greeted folks that came by, gave them information about the upcoming opening, and invited them to drop by to see the alpacas, hear a fantastic band, and to tour the storefront facility.  As the day drew to a close, a woman approached Judy and I, invited us to attend a planned series of sermons and then told us that she and her husband had moved to the Lavonia area because of a job advancement for her husband.  That job had gone away with the deep recession, they lost their home, and had to move into a small trailer.  Then she said she and her husband had been deeply blessed despite the problems.  She asked about the store, our hopes and our plans.  She then asked if she could pray with us...her prayer focused on the possibilities of The Southern Alpaca Connection, on the blessings it could bring the community, and the strength it would take to make it reach its full potential.  We told her that our minister would be offering a blessing for the store at our ribbon cutting the following Tuesday and we knew that her prayer, coupled with his blessing meant more than we could express.  With that we went on our way preparing for the days ahead.

The ribbon cutting, the blessing of the store, and the grand opening came and went.  Community leaders, people that had worked in the building when it had been used for many other uses came by to look and to enjoy the new found life of the building.  This went on for a number of days, until one day a gentleman with a good deal of wealth ventured into the store.  He toured the total space, talked to Judy and I, asked questions as to what we hoped to accomplish and listened intently as we answered.  Then he asked us if he could pray with us.  Again, we welcomed yet another person joining hands with us, bowing our heads, and hearing the words of prayer...prayer from strangers, strangers we hope will become friends.  These three prayers, and the prayer of blessing, touched our souls because they did not ask for riches to be dumped upon our laps, but rather that those that entered our store would be blessed and would gain from simply being a part of this creation.

I do not wish to offend anyone as you read this account, however, we do want to share whatever blessings can be gained simply by being in the calm but engaging activities of our store, our farm, and yes, even our coffee roasting company.  Plan on dropping by as you travel away from home, or plan a day to visit our part of this beautiful state and country...believe me we will have the coffee pot on, the alpaca products present, and maybe even a class or two so that you can learn more about the fantastic creature known as the alpaca.

 Until later....... 

Peace,

The Coffeeman

Drop Us A Line Anytime 

   
Want to Shop??? Look Here!
Find Out a Little More About us

466 Stone Lane

Canon, Georgia 30520