The Miller Financial Group

Markets Snap Winning Streak by

"This Much"

Weekly Update - December 9, 2013 

In This Issue

Stocks ended their winning streak, preoccupied by the Friday jobs report, but quickly regained steam after data revealed a rosy jobs picture. For the week, the S&P 500 lost 0.04% (though it jumped 1.1% on Friday), the Dow lost 0.41%, and the Nasdaq gained

0.06%.[1]

Economic data dominated most of the week's action as investors waited for the latest news on job creation, economic growth, and manufacturing. Overall, the news was good. The November Employment Situation report showed a 203,000 increase in nonfarm jobs and a significant drop in the unemployment rate, from 7.3% to 7.0%. Even better, this drop was not driven by discouraged job seekers dropping out of the labor force. The data was supported by Wednesday's ADP jobs report, which showed that private sector hiring rose to its highest rate in a year.[2] Paired with October's surprise gain of 204,000 new jobs, the data could show that the labor market is gaining steam.

  

At first glance, GDP data was positive, showing that the U.S. economy grew faster than initially estimated in the third quarter - growing at 3.6% (annualized) instead of the 2.8% originally estimated. However, digging deeper, most of the growth was due to businesses aggressively accumulating inventory, which they may or may not sell this quarter. Stripping out the contributions from inventory growth, the economy grew at 1.9%, rather than 2.0%. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic growth, was actually revised downward a fraction.[3]  In short, the economic picture is still mixed. Businesses are clearly confident enough about sales growth to stock up on products, but it's unclear whether consumer demand will justify that optimism.

 

While investors gave in to economic worries last week, it's clear that the money isn't in any hurry to leave the market. Friday's stock market gains are evidence of another buythe-dip run that we may see continue this week. The wild card is the mid-December FOMC meeting; the Fed's Beige Book report showed that the economy grew moderately between October and mid-November, leaving the central bank in a policy quandary: To taper or not to taper?[4] 

 

The two most critical metrics that the Fed uses to gauge policy decisions are

unemployment and inflation. The November jobs report shows stronger job creation and inflation pressures are muted, increasing the odds that the Fed may announce a December taper. We believe that it's more realistic that the Fed will use its December meeting to clarify its timing and pave the way for a 2014 taper. While we can hope that the rally continues, it's very likely that we'll see more volatility as we approach the December 17-18 FOMC meeting and investors make bets on which way the Fed will move.

 

ECONOMIC CALENDAR: 

Wednesday: EIA Petroleum Status Report, Treasury Budget

Thursday:  Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, Import and Export Prices, Business

Inventories

Friday: Producer Price Index

 

 

 


12-9-13 Economic Calendar
Notes: All index returns exclude reinvested dividends, and the 5-year and 10-year returns are annualized. Sources: Yahoo! Finance and  Treasury.gov. International performance is represented by the MSCI EAFE Index. Corporate bond performance is represented by the DJCBP. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.  

HEADLINES: 

 
Chinese exports beat forecasts. The November export report handily beat economists' expectations, rising 12.7% year over year, and boosting evidence that the world's second-largest economy may be stabilizing. Exports are critical to China's economic growth and account for approximately 30 million jobs.[5]

 

Consumer sentiment surges in December. Americans are feeling much more optimistic about the economy and their job prospects, the latest Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report shows. Even more important, nearly all the improvement was in lower-income households, indicating that the good cheer is spreading.[6] 

 

October new home sales strongest in three decades. Sales of new single-family homes leaped in October to their highest level in over 33 years. Keep in mind that September and October housing data was affected by the government shutdown and it's very possible that this number is an outlier. Economists will have a clearer picture of the housing trend once November numbers are released.[7] 

 

Consumer credit rising faster than expected. Total consumer credit - which includes revolving credit like credit cards as well as fixed credit like auto loans - increased in October to its fastest pace in five months, a positive sign for holiday spending. Fortunately, though credit use is increasing, it is nowhere near pre-recession levels.[8]  

 
 

 

 

Quote Of The Week
Quote Of The Week
Fountain Pen

 

"When you have confidence, you can have a lot of fun. And when you have fun, you can do amazing things." 

- Joe Namath 

 

Recipe Of The Week
Recipe Of The Week
Fork and Knife

 

Cheesy Rosemary Mashed Potatoes

 

  Cheesy Rosemary Mashed Potatoes

 

Dress up mashed potatoes with two simple additions. Recipe from RealSimple.com.

 

Ingredients: 

1 package (24 ounces) Mashed Potatoes or any basic mashed potatoes recipe

cup Parmesan cheese, shredded

2 teaspoons rosemary, dried & crushed

 

Directions: 

1. Peel film at corner of Simply Potatoes package to vent and heat on high for 3

minutes in microwave.

2. Completely remove film and stir.

3. Microwave on high for 1 additional minute. 

4.  Stir Parmesan and rosemary into cooked mashed potatoes and mix well.

Serve.  

 

 

Tax Tips
Tax Tips
Document

 

Filing Online, Create a PIN

 

For better security, create a five-number PIN when filing your taxes online; filing jointly requires each individual listed on the return to create a PIN. To validate the PIN process enter the date of birth and adjusted gross income (on the prior year) or the PIN for the prior year. You'll need to remember your PIN each year that you file taxes.

 

Golf Tip
Golf Tip
Golfer

 

Increase Club Speed

 

When taking your practice swings on the tee, remember to swing your clubhead several inches off the ground. This will encourage you to swing more around your body - instead of up and down. This will help increase your club speed and add distance.


Healthy Lifestyle
Healthy Lifestyle
Medical Cross

 

Longer Life with Omega-3s

 

Fat is good! At least Omega-3 fatty acids are, and recent research shows that they can increase life span. Eating high levels of oily fish and products fortified with omega-3, e.g., eggs, juice may also protect against depression, dementia, cancer, and arthritis. It's better to take in Omega-3s in high quality food because the benefits can differ according to the source.


Green Living
Green Living
Leaf

 

Program to Save

 

 A simple change in a HVAC system can significantly reduce your household energy costs. A programmable thermostat maintains an even temperature throughout the day and can be set to automatically adjust to a different temperature when homeowners are away or during sleeping hours. 

 

 

Share the Wealth of Knowledge!

 

Please share this market update with family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our list, simply click on the "Forward email" link below. We love being introduced!  

 

 

 

Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. 

 

Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets.

 

The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. 

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896. 

 

The Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of stocks of technology companies and growth companies. 

 

The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia. 

 

The Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index is a 96-bond index designed to represent the market performance, on a total-return basis, of investment-grade bonds issued by leading U.S. companies. Bonds are equally weighted by maturity cell, industry sector, and the overall index. 

 

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the leading measures of U.S. residential real estate prices, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate. The index is made up of measures of real estate prices in 20 cities and weighted to produce the index. 

 

The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market. 

 

Google Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods. 

 

Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. 

 

Past performance does not guarantee future results. 

 

You cannot invest directly in an index. 

 

Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. 

 

Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors. 

 

These are the views of Platinum Advisor Marketing Strategies, LLC, and not necessarily those of the named representative, Broker dealer or Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named representative nor the named Broker dealer or Investment Advisor gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial advisor for further information. 

 

By clicking on these links, you will leave our server, as they are located on another server. We have not independently verified the information available through this link. The link is provided to you as a matter of interest. Please click on the links below to leave and proceed to the selected site.

 

 

[1] http://briefing.com/investor/markets/weekly-wrap/weekly-wrap-for-december-2-2013.htm 

 

[2] http://briefing.com/investor/markets/weekly-wrap/weekly-wrap-for-december-2-2013.htm#ixzz2mtRNWXPh 

 

[3] http://www.cnbc.com/id/101249335 

 

[4] http://www.cnbc.com/id/101247179 

 

[5] http://www.cnbc.com/id/101255661 

 

[6] http://www.cnbc.com/id/101252993 

 

[7] http://www.cnbc.com/id/101246296 

 

[8] http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/06/us-usa-economy-credit-idUSBRE9B50VR20131206

 

 



Visit My Site
Email Me
Robert G. Miller, CFP , RFC, LUTCF
The Miller Financial Group
7700 West Camino Real
Suite 400
Boca Raton, FL 33433
561-353-3700
[email protected]
http://www.tmfg.com

Copyright © 2013. All Rights Reserved.