February 2013
The Electronic Materials Report  
New Econometric Forecast Provides Accurate Monthly Forecasts for Semiconductors  
Groundbreaking New Demand-Driven Econometric Forecast Model 
The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast is the first semiconductor industry forecasting service to use rigorous state of the art global GDP macroeconomic models to provide forecasts at a quarterly frequency with monthly updates, allowing senior executives, business managers and business planners to understand and plan for short-term fluctuations in the volatile semiconductor industry. Forecasts cover the next six quarters and four full years.
Forecasting Semiconductors: A Demand-Driven Approach
The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast uses a proven macroeconomic forecasting tool that incorporates measures of economic uncertainty, global economic shocks, and regional volatility to develop a Silicon area forecast for the global semiconductor industry. 

Predictions for 2013 show several notable trends: 
  • Overall Si area growth for 2013 should average approximately 6%. 
  • A slow first quarter will be followed by a strong second quarter with moderate growth in the second half of the year.
  • The modest growth forecast for 2013 is predominantly demand-driven since inventory levels have not shown a significant increase in 2012.
Econometric semiconductor forecast graph
 The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast provides subscribers with monthly updates of quarterly forecasts of total semiconductor production in Million Square Inches(MSI) of silicon processed, as well as segmentation by device as follows:
  • DRAM
  • Flash
  • MPU
  • ASIC
  • Analog
  • Discrete
The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast is based on an advanced econometric forecasting model developed by Duncan Meldrum, business economist and founder of Hilltop Economics, in conjunction with Linx Consulting.  The model is based on a demand-driven equation that captures >98% of the long run variation in semiconductors and includes:
  • Global real GDP growth (from consensus forecasts)
  • US consumer and business spending on technology goods 
  • Inventory-shipments ratio, computer & electronics
  • Financial crisis shock indicator to capture panic behavior in latest cycle
Join us for a live demo of our groundbreaking econometric forecast

Learn how our econometric forecasting service can improve your bottom line in a free webinar on March 7 at 2:00pm EST. Webinar attendees will be able to download a free copy of our first major quarterly report, with forecasts for the next 6 quarters, after our 30 minute webinar.

Register now for a live demo and get your FREE quarterly econometric semiconductor forecast. This is our first comprehensive quarterly forecast and a $1,000 value. Get a glimpse of the year ahead and a jump on your competition with the very first quarterly Econometric Semiconductor Forecast.

For more information about The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast, call 617-273-8837 or email us.
Mike Corbett & Mark Thirsk
Linx Consulting
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