Does your EVM data confirm what you already know or does it cause you to think deeper? One of the benefits of using earned value management is the ability to quantify progress against our plans and expenditures. Add in the ability to drill down into control accounts and you can get to the truth about how our projects and programs are going. We want the truth, right? Can we handle the truth?

"Confirmation bias" is the mental state where we only see what confirms what we already think we know. Sounds good unless what we "know" or recall is not correct. Then what we are seeing only confirms a non-truth. Confirmation bias occurs to surgeons, pilots, juries, law enforcement, and just about anyone else, including project managers. The more critical the knowledge the more like to have confirmation bias creep into the debate.

Confirmation bias includes favoring information that confirms hypotheses, selective recollection of facts, or interpretation of ambiguous information as supporting one's point of view. "People are biased toward confirming their existing beliefs" according to Wikipedia. This can lead to overconfidence in these existing beliefs. The result is poor decision making or worse. The fact that NASA had previously seen O-rings fail without consequence confirmed {falsely} that O-ring failure was not likely to have consequences.

Human nature is what happened. We are spring loaded to see situations as we want them to be rather than as they are. It's a common phenomenon, yet not understanding it can lull us into a dangerous state of complacency.

Project/problems don't announce themselves at first. Frequently they are subtle; they whisper before they shout. They lull us into complacency before they become obvious and threaten the project itself. The real trick to handling an emerging project problem is realizing you have one in the first place. Then you can apply all your experience and training into handling it. Until the problem is recognized you are only along for the ride.

What might confirmation bias look like? 

• "Last month's poor CPI will be better next month because last month was unusual." 
• "Yes, the SPI is only 0.88 but all projects have start up issues. We should not do anything yet."
•  "There is a slight up-tic in last month's SPI and CPI so we are getting better. We have reversed the trend."

While each of these statements might be true, they might also just be what we wish we were seeing. Do you see clearly? What color are your glasses? We do want the truth.

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