Operators to embrace new RAN "philosophy"

 As CAPEX shifts to software, network door opens to IT giants

 

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

 

MIAMI, Florida, and BROCKENHURST, England, Dec 2, 2013- The changes in network planning will have a profound effect on the patterns of mobile operator spending with a disruptive effect that will see a significant shift of capex investment towards new software according to the latest report from Maravedis-Rethink's RAN Research Service 'The Network is Software: adapting to the new mobile economics 2013-2018'

 

For instance, by 2018, MNOs will be spending three times more on SON alone - $13.4bn - than on macro base stations. The report surveyed and modelled the network plans of the top 40 international mobile operator groups and found that, not only will software increasingly dominate hardware in the capex budget, but there will also be an accelerating shift to opex, driven in particular by network sharing and by managed services/outsourcing deals.

 

The new networks will hold back the data deluge by harnessing a complex mixture of cell sizes, spectrum bands and technologies, eventually evolving into full HetNets, in which all these elements are seamlessly combined in a common pool of capacity. To ensure that this delivers flexible, on-demand bandwidth, and not HetNet chaos, tools such as SON (self-optimizing network) and geolocation software will become extremely strategic. Indeed, the dramatic new approach to RAN planning will both drive, and be enabled by, a new generation of OSS and optimization products.

 

Specialist suppliers are often responding more quickly to these challenges than the network giants. They will increase their value and become targets for acquisition, as already seen in Cisco's purchase of Intucell and Amdocs's of Celcite and Actix. All these deals show how IT giants are moving to the heart of the network as OSS converges with big data, and traditional OEMs will have to adapt quickly to maintain their lead.

 

Other key findings:

  • There will still be hefty investment, totaling $22.4bn in 2018 across macro and small cells, in cell site hardware as operators continue to upgrade to LTE and introduce dense metrozones.
  • Public access small cells are having a slower start than initially expected, but will pick up significantly from the second half of 2014 and hit 7.5m unit sales in 2018, with 75% of those cells integrating Wi-Fi.
  • Macro layer deployments will fall gradually after 2014, with negative CAGR of 10% in the period, but there will be growth opportunities in certain areas such as Cloud-RAN and smart antennas.
  • AAS (Active Antenna System), after a slow start, will grow at just over 100% a year after 2014 even in a declining macro BTS market.
  • By 2018, 62% of LTE operators will support the NFV (Network Functions Virtualization) specifications.
  • By 2018, 94% of new base stations deployed will be LTE or 4G multimode, and 95% of those will support some features of LTE-Advanced, most commonly carrier aggregation, CoMP and eICIC. 
  

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MARAVEDIS-RETHINK is a leading analyst firm focusing on wireless infrastructure technologies and markets.  www.maravedis-bwa.com. 

 

For more information, contact:

 

Adlane Fellah,

Customer Engagement

Maravedis-Rethink

afellah@maravedis-bwa.com

Tel: +1 (305) 865 1006