Extreme Temperatures
Does your plan really work?
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Summer is barely upon us and already we are seeing temperature increases that result either directly or indirectly in death. Whether you believe in global warming or not, there is no escaping the fact that summers in the US are growing warmer. A recent paper in Nature Climate Change predicts that temperatures could increase as much as 22% in New York City by 2020. For many of us, planning for severe temperatures is part of our seasonal planning. But are we up to the challenge as heat waves become more common?
The traditional way we prepare is through the development of a severe temperature annex that identifies responsibilities, triggers for government action, and the activities that will happen once we hit those triggers. I don't believe this old paradigm is going to work all that well for us. |
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Greetings!
Welcome to the May issue of Emergency Management Solutions. As I was completing this issue, I heard the news about the tragedy in Oklahoma City. It is a costly reminder that seasonal weather events cost lives and underscores the vital work we do in preparing for these types of events. My best wishes to my colleagues in Oklahoma; I know the work you've done and are doing made a difference in this terrible time. This issue is devoted to another type of seasonal emergency: extreme temperature emergencies. Unlike the shock of a tornado, we have some warning with these types of emergencies and we can stop the loss of life. But we can't do this by focusing solely on response. I hope you find this issue useful. Remember that in addition to this monthly newsletter, you can also follow my personal blog Canton on Emergency Management or my new blog in Emergency Management Magazine Managing Crisis. |
Regards,
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Professional Development Are you up-to-date with the various levels of warning issued by the National Weather Service for excessive heat? Many times it's the local emergency manager who is in the best position to identify a long range threat and initiate planning. Here's a quick refresher: Excessive Heat Outlook :issued when the potential exists for an excessive heat event in the next 3-7 days. An Outlook provides information to those who need considerable lead time to prepare for the event, such as public utilities, emergency management and public health officials.
Excessive Heat Watch : issued when conditions are favorable for an excessive heat event in the next 12 to 48 hours. A Watch is used when the risk of a heat wave has increased, but its occurrence and timing is still uncertain. A Watch provides enough lead time so those who need to prepare can do so, such as cities who have excessive heat event mitigation plans.
Excessive Heat Advisory: issued when an excessive heat event is expected in the next 36 hours. Issued when an excessive heat event is occurring, is imminent, or has a very high probability of occurring. An advisory is for conditions that cause significant discomfort or inconvenience and, if caution is not taken, could lead to a threat to life and/or property.
Excessive Heat Warning: issued when an excessive heat event is expected in the next 36 hours. Issued when an excessive heat event is occurring, is imminent, or has a very high probability of occurring. The warning is used for conditions posing a threat to life or property.
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The future is a dangerous place but, whether you realize it or not, this is where emergency managers must live.
We sometimes forget that risk, the fundamental basis of our profession, is rooted in the future. An event that occurs is no longer a risk, it is reality. We also tend to focus on where we should be, seeking always to continually improve our capability to deal with crisis.
But this commitment to the future carries a burden. Focusing on the future implies a dissatisfaction with the status quo, which can be threatening to more complacent colleagues. We are frequently branded as disgruntled trouble makers who are never happy with anything.
There's certain truth to this. Because we see how things could be, we don't always accept things as they are. This is not a bad thing; our job demands that we push for continuous improvement. But it does take its toll and can produce considerable stress as we continue to tilt at windmills.
So do two things for yourself today. The first is to take your eyes of the future for just a moment and look back at how far you've come. I think you'll be surprised. The second is to take some time to live in the present, at least where your family is concerned. You'll be much happier.
And don't worry, the future is still out there waiting for you.
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From the Bookshelf
Heat Wave: A Social Autopsy of Disaster in Chicago (Illinois)
by Eric Klinenberg by University Of Chicago Press
I first reviewed this book back in 2010 but given the theme of this month's newsletter, I thought it was worth another look. It still stands as one of the best studies on social vulnerability in disasters.
The book demonstrates how we have created in our urban environments both the physical and social conditions for disaster. Major cities serve as heat sinks that increase the impact of high temperatures while creating pockets of socially isolated seniors and low income residents vulnerable to excessive temperatures.
While focused on social issues, there is a considerable amount of information in this book about response and lessons learned that will help you craft more effective extreme temperature response plans. If you have not read it yet, now is the time. It's not getting any cooler out there.
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