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American Survival Newsletter:
Combining the World of Finance, Health & Politics
1/1/16

American Gold

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Edited by Alfred Adask
Friday, January 22, AD 2016
 
MARKETS 
 
From Friday, January 15th, A.D. 2015, to Friday, January 22nd, A.D. 2016, the bid prices for:
Gold rose 0.8 % from $1,088.80 to $1,098.00
Silver rose 0.6 % from $13.91 to $14.00
Platinum rose 0.1 % from $828 to $829
Palladium rose0.4 % from $492 to to $494
Crude Oil rose 8.5 % from $29.69 to $32.21

US Dollar Index rose 0.6 % from 98.93 to 99.53

DJIA rose 0.7 % from 15,988.08 to 16,093.51
NASDAQ rose 2.3 % from 4,488.42 to 4,591.18
NYSE rose 1.4 % from 9,299.60 to 9,426.91
All of these indicators rose this week. It reminds me of Garrison Keillor's fictional community of "Lake Wobegon" where all of the children are "a little above average."
 
 
 

"Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold
if the market shut down for 10 years." --Warren Buffett 

"If the markets shut down for 10 years, what investment would you dare to hold-- 
other than gold"? --Alfred Adask

Confidence in Debt Repayment

by Alfred Adask
 
According to Michael Snyder (TheEconomicCollapseBlog.com), "The [debt] crisis in Puerto Rico continues to spiral out of control." 
Michael might be right, but I don't regard Puerto Rico's plight as big news.
According to Wikipedia, Puerto Rico is over $70 billion in debt. $70 billion's not chicken feed. But, on the other hand, under Quantitative Easing 3 (QE3), the Federal Reserve was handing out $80 billion per month to stimulate the U.S. economy. Surely, the Fed could cough up enough to solve P.R.s debt problem-right?
I doubt that Puerto Rico's $70 billion debt is a domino that's big enough to start a chain reaction that will, eventually, topple the US economy. If I'm wrong, why doesn't the Fed simply lend Puerto Rico, say, $40 billion, to placate some of its creditors and at least kick the can down the road for another year or two? We could call it "QE4"-a one lump loan of $40 billion to save Puerto Rico.
However, even if Puerto Rico's debt problem is more noise than news, Puerto Rico's tactics for dealing with that problem might be illuminating.
Why? Because there are only so many moves on the board. I.e., there are only a limited number of tactics that any insolvent government can use to deal with its excess debt.
By understanding Puerto Rico's tactics for dealing with its unpayable debts, we can gain a pretty good idea of the tactics available to any other overly-indebted nation (including the U.S.) when it's finally forced to default.
 
* U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Jack Lew recently sent a letter to Congress describing Puerto Rico's debt problem. The following quotes are excerpts from that letter:
 
"Although there are many ways this crisis could escalate further, it is clear that Puerto Rico is already in the midst of an economic collapse. . . ."
 
Puerto Rico is in big trouble. It is therefore reacting as follows:
 
"1. It is shifting funds from one creditor to pay another.
 
The decision to take funds from creditor A to pay debts owed to creditor B might be based on the idea that creditor A's debt won't be due for another year, while creditor B's debt is due this month. If so, the oldest debtors will be paid now with the newest debtors' investments. The newest debtors won't ever be paid. That's a Ponzi Scheme. That's illegal.
Government is forced to engage in crime in order to maintain the public confidence that it can (somehow) repay its debts.
 
"2. Creditors are filing lawsuits.
 
Ooo--lawsuits!
So what?
The overly-indebted Puerto Rican government will ignore those lawsuits. Even if a judge rules otherwise, what can't be paid, won't be paid.
Do Puerto Rico's creditors really expect to be any more successful at recovering their funds from Puerto Rico than European creditors were at recovering their funds from Greece?
In the end, Puerto Rico's creditors will "take a haircut" and receive only a relatively small percentage of the debt due.
The first "haircut" given by Greece to its creditors was a 50% "restructuring" of the existing debt. By the time Greece stops handing out "haircuts," its creditors will have lost 80% or more of whatever funds they loaned. But, on the bright side, Greece won'thave to officially admit it's bankrupt and can't pay its debts.
You can bet that something similar will happen in Puerto Rico.
What can't be paid, won't be paid. Even so, government won't admit that its debt can't be paid.
"3. The [Puerto Rican] Government Development Bank, which provides critical banking and fiscal services to the central government, only avoided depleting its liquidity by halting lending."
 
The "Government Development Bank" is Puerto Rico's rough equivalent to the U.S. Federal Reserve. It's their "lender of last resort".
"Depleting its liquidity" means exhausting its entire supply of cash and being forced to admit it's insolvent.
Figuratively speaking, Puerto Rico's "lender of last resort" has avoided "depleting" its entire "liquidity" (cash assets)-admitting that it's broke-by "halting lending" while there was still at least fifty bucks in its vault. Even so, the fact remains that regardless of whether that Bank stopped lending because it is already broke, or because it would be broke if it loaned out its last fifty bucks, you can bet that Bank is effectively broke.
The only thing gained by the Government Development Bank's refusal to lend more currency was avoidance of the public admission that that Bank is, for all intents and purposes, technically insolvent and therefore unable to pay its debts. It is likely that the Puerto Rican people's confidence in their government or economy is shored up by the Government Development Bank's refusal to publicly admitted that it's broke. But what is a bank that refuses to lend its last "liquidity"? It's broke.
Even if it's not broke, it's decided to "halt lending". If Puerto Rico's "lender of last resort" has decided to halt lending, that means that Puerto Rico's supply of credit is drying up.
A debt-based monetary system (like that of Puerto Rico, the U.S. and the world) runs on debt. Without more debt, the debt-based monetary system fails. But there can't be more debt, without first being more credit. If Puerto Rico's "lender of last resort" has "halted lending," then credit is drying up in Puerto Rico and that territory's debt-based economy must be on the verge of collapse.
 
* Incidentally, the Government Development Bank's refusal to lend more "liquidity" into the Puerto Rican economy reminds me of the Federal Reserve's decision to halt Quantitative Easing 3 in October of A.D. 2014. The Federal Reserve claimed it stopped QE3 because the US economy was strong enough to survive without additional financial stimulus.
That claim may have been cause for public optimism but, again, what is a bank that refuses to lend money? It's probably broke-or, nearly so.
Did the Federal Reserve really stop QE3 because the US economy was strong?
Or did it stop because the Fed was (nearly) broke? Like P.R.'s Government Development Bank, did the Federal Reserve stop lending under QE3 in order to "avoid depleting its liquidity"-and thereby avoid having to admit it was broke and destroy public confidence in the monetary system?
I don't know. But I think the answer may be Yes.
 
* As I write this article, the U.S. and global stock markets are in significant decline. Some people predict that the Federal Reserve will therefore be forced to start another session of Quantitative Easing (QE4) to save the U.S. markets and the U.S. economy. Those predictions might be right. Janet Yellen could surprise us all by suddenly announcing the onset of a new-and-improved QE4.
But, I have my doubts.
It's my understanding that the Fed's "balance sheet" is only 0.3% in the black. In other words, the Fed has only 0.3% more assets than liabilities. I'm not an accountant. I don't fully understand how "balance sheets" work.
However, I do know that 0.3% of anything isn't very much.
I also know that if my assets were only 0.3% greater than my liabilities, I'd be worried. I'd know that I was very close to being insolvent, maybe bankrupt, and therefore losing everything I had. I'd understand that if my assets declined just a little or my liabilities increased just a little, I could be financially ruined.
I know that I live in a world that's much different from the Fed's. The kind of debt problems that could drive me to drink, might not trouble the Fed in the least.
Still, I can't help wondering if the Fed's 0.3% in assets on its balance sheet doesn't correspond to the Fed's total "liquidity" (resources). If so, what would've happened if the Fed had continued QE3 beyond October of A.D. 2014, "depleted" its remaining "liquidity" and allowed its liabilities to exceed its assets? Would the Fed have become technically insolvent?
Similarly, what will happen if the Fed starts another round of Quantitative Easing (QE4) and is thereby forced to "deplete" it's remaining 0.3% "liquidity" by lending it out to shore up the U.S. stock markets? How much could the Fed lend under QE4 before its liabilities exceeded its assets? If the Fed's liabilities exceeded its assets, wouldn't the Fed be technically insolvent (unable to pay its debts)?
Of course, I understand that the Fed and U.S. government can combine under the guise of various accounting and financing tricks to "spin" more currency out of thin air. I understand that so long as there's any paper left anywhere on the face of the earth (and a bit of ink to color it), the Fed can issue more currency to supposedly stimulate the economy and/or repay its existing debts. Therefore, the Fed might not be frightened by the threat of technical insolvency.
I also understand that our entire monetary system is based on the American people's "confidence" in that system. So, I wonder what would happen to public confidence if the Fed loaned out more than the remaining 0.3% of its liquidity? What if the Fed had to publicly admit that its liabilities now exceeded its assets, its "balance sheet" had turned from black to red, and the almighty Fed was "technically bankrupt"?
Oh, sure, the Fed's wizards could mutter some "E Pluribus Unums" and "ipso factos" and explain that, despite its "technical" insolvency, it wasn't really bankrupt and circumstances were all under control. Most Americans might buy that explanation.
But, what if they didn't? What would happen to public confidence (on which the entire debt-based monetary system is founded) if the Fed had to publicly admit it was "technically" unable to pay its debts?
Could it be that, just as Puerto Rico's Government Development Bank decided to "halt lending" to avoid admitting it's broke, the Federal Reserve also stopped QE3 before it exhausted the last 0.3% of its remaining "liquidity" in order to avoid publicly admitting it's (virtually) broke?
Odds are, my concerns are misguided. The Fed is solvent and will forever be so.
But, if the current decline in U.S. and global stocks continues, and if the Fed fails to initiate QE4 by the end of February . . . and, then . . . even by the end of March . . . won't some folks wonder why? Will some people start doubting that the Fed's decision to refuse to lend under QE4 was because the economy has recovered and/or the Fed is initiating a new "get tuff"/austerity program to manage the economy. Would folks instead, wonder if maybe the Fed couldn't dare to deplete its last 0.3% in liquidity since doing so might destroy the public confidence on which the entire debt-based monetary system is based?
 
* We all acknowledge the importance of "public confidence" in maintaining our debt-based monetary system. But, how many of us know what the "confidence" is in? In Obama being a native-born American? In the Republican Party's dedication to limited government and fiscal responsibility? In Hillary's ethics?
Q: For our debt-based monetary system to survive, what, exactly, must we have "confidence" in?
A: Simple. We must have confidence in the belief that all of the existing debts will be repaid.
So long as we have "confidence" that our national, private, and corporate debts will one day all be repaid, we can reasonably continue to invest our wealth in debt-based monetary instruments like bank accounts, government bonds, stocks and pension funds. More importantly, so long as we have "confidence" that all of our debts can and will be repaid, we can continue use debt-based currency (Federal Reserve Notes) as if it was "money".
However, if Americans ever woke up and realized that most of our total debt can't and won't ever be repaid, the whole economy could collapse and the fiat dollar might die. After all, why would anyone want to continue to do business, work as an employee, or invest his savings in a debt-based economy if he didn't have confidence that all of the debt would (one day) be repaid?
Would any rational man want to invest his wealth in paper, debt-based currency, if he knew that the debt those dollars represented would never be repaid in full or even substantially? Of course not.
Once any rational man realized that the total private, corporate and governmental debt was so huger that it could never be repaid, he'd flee from all paper debt-instruments as if his life depended on it (and it just might). He'd convert his savings, wealth and pensions into assets like gold and silver-rather than debt-instruments made of paper or electronic digits.
 
* And, therein lies the danger facing the Fed.
Suppose Puerto Rico's "Government Development Bank" and/or the Federal Reserve were forced to admit that their liabilities exceeded their assets and they were therefore "technically insolvent". Would the public realize that that Bank and/or the Fed couldn't pay its debts and therefore lose their "confidence" that the debts can and will be repaid.
Once confidence in debt repayment dies, the entire debt-based monetary system and debt-based economies of Puerto Rico, the U.S. and even the globe dies right along with it.
So, can the Fed dare admit that it's "technically insolvent" without triggering a national or even global economic collapse? Can the U.S. government dare admit that it can't repay most of the National Debt? Can the U.S. government even dare to admit that the true size of the National Debt is not a mere $18 trillion but is closer to $100 trillion or even $200 trillion?
No, they can't.
Why? Because an express admission of such facts would constitute admissions that the total debt is too great to ever be repaid. What can't be paid, won't be paid.
I've speculated for five years that no more than 20% of the National Debt will ever be repaid-and that the real percentage could be as little as 10%. If I'm right, the day is coming when the purchasing power of the $100 bill in your wallet will suddenly fall from $100 (in today's dollars) to $20 or even $10. Same thing with your bank accounts, retirement accounts, pension funds, wages and salary. If your wealth is stored in debt-instruments, you'll lose most or all of your wealth if the government admits the debts can't be repaid.
The major institutions don't dare admit that the debt can't be paid, because once they do, the whole debt-based monetary system and debt-based economy will collapse. The resulting economic and political chaos could rival that of the American Civil War.        
I can't prove it, but I strongly suspect that if:
 
1) U.S. and global stock market declines seen in the first two weeks of January persist; and
2) The Federal Reserve fails to respond by implementing QE4; then,
3) It will be reasonable to conclude that the Fed's assets/"liquidity" are so depleted that if must refuse to lend more under the guise of QE4 in order to avoid admitting to the world that it's "technically insolvent".
 
If my suspicions are correct, that means that despite predictions to the contrary, there'll be no QE4 and no "QE to infinity".
 
* Finally, Treasury Secretary Lew wrote that, in order to deal with its debt default, the government of Puerto Rico is:
        
"4. Sweeping in additional deposits from other Puerto Rico governmental entities."
 
Apparently, it's easier for Puerto Rico's government to rob the city and county municipal accounts than it is to directly rob the Puerto Rican people (who are prone to rioting and setting fire to government buildings).
However, you can bet that once lesser municipal accounts are exhausted, the Puerto Rican government will start to rob the people's bank accounts and other bastions of private savings.
 
* In broad strokes, Puerto Rico's tactics for dealing with their debt defaults have been:
 
1. Rob its creditors by stopping payment on all of the debts due. There aren't many creditors so they don't have much political clout. More, nobody likes 'em anyway because they're rich. Therefore, governments can rob rich creditors without causing much political heat.
2. Ignore the creditors' lawsuits. Since everyone knows lawsuits take years, there won't be any political heat, so long as creditors are tangled up in court.
3. Rob smaller governmental agencies and entities. Robbing cities, counties and pension funds will precipitate more political heat than robbing rich creditors or ignoring their lawsuits. Nevertheless, governmental entities are generally despised, so the political heat generated by robbing them won't be unbearable.
4. As a last, desperate resort, Puerto Rico will rob its people by imposing "austerity" or seizing their savings accounts-and praying that they don't riot, don't burn the island down to the waterline, and don't hang all government officials.
 
Implication? Government will first rob rich, private creditors and stall those who complain with lawsuits. Then, government will rob smaller governmental entities. Finally, government will risk overtly robbing the public even though they might riot. Even if people riot, government will rob them rather than admit that the debts can't be paid.
Once they admit the debts can't be paid, the whole debt-based system implodes.
To protect the debt-based monetary and economic systems, governments can't admit that the debts can't ever be repaid.
 
* If the pattern seen in Puerto Rico holds true for most government insolvents, there's a good chance that when the US defaults (as it must since the National Debt can't be paid in full or even substantially) we'll go through a very similar set of steps: 1st, government will rob its creditors; 2nd, it'll rob smaller governmental savings accounts; and finally, 3rd, it'll rob the American people of their savings. But it will never admit that the debts can't be paid-at least not until we're on, or past, the edge of absolute collapse.
In a worst case scenario, the government will steal every dime they can find before they admit that the government debt can't be paid.
Therefore, if you ever hear the President admit that the debt can't be paid and must be "restructured" or some such, you can bet that the End Has Come and all Helk is breaking loose.

HEALTH
NECESSARY TONICS
There is a long history regarding herb tonics. How did they get started and were they necessary? Every culture seems to have invented its own medicinal tonic and with a goal in mind; to restore, tone, invigorate, cleanse and promote general well-being. The tonic ingredients were selected consisting of an assortment of plants (herbs). Whoever it was that said that the "Golden Age of Herbalism" was from 1400's to the 1600's was mistaken. Germany and France never lost sight of their herbal healing roots as many other cultures. Let's take a look at the pivotal role of herb tonics.  
 
TONIC BENEFITS
In many cases the tonics with the most power contained herbs with adaptogen action. In other words, the herbs selected contained compounds that could read chemical markers and adapt to the needed human receptors. It also improved the action of the other herbs and helped stabilized a human condition. The concept of "adaptogens" was supposedly first used by a pharmacologist involving drug trials in 1947. Herbs with adaptogen capabilities have been thought to have the ability to help the body fight conditions such as cancer. Modern science has been studying herbs to see how they are able to offer this miraculous benefit. They hope it may lead them to more discoveries why bacteria are able to adapt and resist antibiotics. Most of the research on the topic of adaptogen herbs has been carried out in Russia, Korea and China. However, more study needs to be done to satisfy the FDA's definitions on cure, treat or prevent disease using herbs and tonics. However, what scientists do know is that whatever the mechanism is within the herbs it decreases cellular stress on the body. Research has shown that Ginseng has that ability as well as other herbs. Here are the scientific and medical definitions of adaptogens for nonspecific remedies:
 
"Adaptogens increase resistance to a broad spectrum of harmful factors (stressors) of different physical, chemical and biological natures." Phytomedicine 1999 (Panossian, Wikman & Wagner)
 
"Adaptogens are a new class of metabolic regulators (of a natural origin) which increase the ability of an organism to adapt to environmental factors and to avoid damage from such factors." Phytomedicine 1999 (Panossian, Wikman & Wagner)
 
The Russians have by far conducted to most research into the concept of plant adaptogens (1500 pharmacological and clinical published studies). Their research has boldly stated that, "Adaptogens sources have been described as medicine for healthy people." There are a few products today stating the adaptogen benefit. In 1998 the FDA and European Medicine Agency approved a monograph on Siberian Ginseng root as an adapotgen. The point is modern science and medicine has difficulty rationalizing the adaptogen mechanism in natural medicinal sources. Herbal medicine all over the world has included herbs with the adaptogen benefit regardless what science now discovers or believes. Science may never understand the full benefit of medicinal plants with their cellular transcription or adaptogen action.
 
WINTER THAW
In many cases, herb tonics had a common use of being taken in the spring after a long winter. Spring tonics were a necessity to refortify the body with the nutrition missing throughout the winter. Before the 20th century, the human diet in winter consisted of dried meat, some grains and root vegetables. Later we discovered that vegetables quickly lose their vitamins and minerals after harvest. The herb tonics often contained herbs high in nutrients such as calcium, iron and vitamin C. Added benefit to the tonic was that it often cleansed the system while supplying the needed nutrients. Herbs such as nettle and red clover would sweep the blood and detoxify it. Other herbs such as parsley or lobelia would act like diuretics and flush and tone the kidneys.
 
MONK TONIC
The Asian monks love their tonics and sustain themselves on them. They claim that herb tonics take you from "disease prevention to optimum health." The monks are the first to tell you that Western medicine focuses on disease-prevention, while their Eastern philosophy to health focuses on longevity, vitality, rejuvenation and working with the energy of the body on a physical and spiritual level. Asian monks love American Ginseng and Astragalus root. Both offer adaptogen qualities and ginseng is well known as a "panax" (panacea) herb. Ginseng has many saponins responsible for helping the body with many illnesses. The Asians understand that Astragalus root offers immune support and can help export toxins out of the body quickly. American Ginseng and Astragalus root together offer synergistic effects. They offer stamina to the body to reduce fatigue. Patients unlucky enough to be treated with radiation and chemotherapy for cancer find that Astragalus root reduces the negative side effects of the cancer treatments by modern medicine and they recover much faster (Anderson Cancer Research Center University of Houston, TX). Astragalus root has also been known to improve sperm mobility as a male fertility solution. Asian monks will tell you that they use herb tonics for "radiant health."
 
HISTORY LESSON
Herb tonics are a very old way to help the body heal itself. Hippocrates wrote about herbal tonics as it was a part of traditional Greek medicine. Both Hippocrates and Galen both felt that the nutrition in tonics was a superior approach to healing than therapeutic intervention. If they were alive today their assessment may go something like this:
 
Superior - tonics to build strength, vitality and health
Average - therapeutic agents to influence bodily function
Inferior -   toxic drugs
 
Aside from all the life-saving trauma treatments modern medicine uses today, it still lacks the ability to cure or prevent disease. So, why did medicine lose sight of its traditional holistic or vitalistic priorities? Why did medicine abandon supporting and building the human system in order to acquire natural resistance in lieu of stronger drugs and invasive surgery? The ancient Greeks can answer that for us. The Greek physicians were known for their superb ability to teach people how to care for themselves to the point that the population was so healthy that Greek doctors were out of a job. The Greeks always treated the person and not the disease. Greek physicians had such a superior reputation in the healing arts that they were usually the first professionals to be taken into captivity alive to heal the invading armies. Inorganic mineral drugs, toxic mercury and the misuse of botanicals (such as opiates, henbane and belladonna) were unfortunately adopted by medicine to offer the illusion of health. Later medicine added antibiotic, viral drugs and vaccines to their list of disease treatments. The patented greed of man has lead to defects in medical treatments and is becoming increasing more clear with each decade. Medicine's drug therapies turn people into drug addicts or slaves to their drugs and put them in early graves.
 
THE CATALYST
It was a 16th century physician and philosopher Paracelsus who told his students that to combine herbs with the liquid catalyst to extract the nutrition making the liquid a living, bio-available matter taken from the plant and is more potent than a single plant alone. History has proved that the tonics overall furnish the body with "live", whole food vitamins, minerals, plant proteins, flavonoids and amino acids. Tonics help revitalize the system with a slow infusion of nutrition removing cellular stress. Tonics offer a relaxing effect to the organs because it strengthens and tones the entire system. Vinegar-based tonics are excellent for systems overwhelmed with yeast. They are also good for colds, flu, epidemics, chronic fatigue, immune system weakness and digestive problems. The best catalysts for herb tonics which extract more nutrition are vinegar and or alcohol. Glycerin from plants is not as effective as a catalyst because it does not extract the full spectrum of plant nutrition leaving the formula weak and incomplete. Some plants have multiple alkaloids that must be captured for optimum benefit and a catalyst of vinegar and alcohol must be used to make a powerful concentrate.
 
FULL CIRCLE
As modern medicine attempts to manage drug-resistant bacteria they often find they must resort to other natural sources. For instance, hospitals that cannot stop the spread of staph infections are using honey. There are natural antibacterial agents in honey and it only destroys the bad pathogens and none of the healthy flora. Another option is liquid garlic (non-sticky) for the same reasons. Mutating viruses and bacteria may be immune to anti-viral or anti-bacterial drugs but they are not immune to the human immune system or natural medicines. An immune system that is allowed to function and is supported with herbs will help the human immune system in the following manner:
 
  • Improves in the neutralization of the infection with antibodies (killer T-cells)
  • Speeds up the removal of pathogen debris (speeds recovery)
  • Assists in immune system functions such as; fever & flushing out pathogens
  • Improves sleep, strength, stamina, breathing, circulation
  • Reduces phlegm or mucous (congestion)
  • Strengthens and speeds up overall healing
 
STRENGTHENING
If we remove the knowledge filter that medicine likes to place on things that it cannot prove, we find that God was truthful when He said, "...herbs are for the service of man" (Ps 104:14). We may never uncover all the secrets to creation but we are comforted that there is natural medicine resources used for thousands of years that we benefit from. I for one will tonic-it-up to overcome infections and recover much faster than those on prescriptions. Apothecary Herbs offers whole-food immune boosting herb formulas in tonic and tincture form. Look for their All-In-One, My 3 Amigos, Astragalus Root, Echinacea Deluxe, Pandemic Kit and more. Call now to order or for a free catalog 866-229-3663, International 704-885-0277 http://www.thepowerherbs.com, where your natural healthcare options just became endless. Herb saving coupons on their website.
 
Sources:

 
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The information contained herein is not designed to diagnosis, treat, prevent or cure disease. Seek medical advice from a lincensed medical physician (if you dare) before using any product or therapy. 
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