Goin' Against the Flow

by Alfred Adask

MarketWatch.com reported in "Opinion: Almost no one believes the stock market will fall" that,

"Everyone believes the U.S. stock market has reached a permanently high plateau. . . . A recent Investors Intelligence survey showed bearish sentiment is at its lowest since 1987 (13.3%). . . . short-sellers have nearly disappeared along with the few remaining bears. . . . the VIX ("fear index")is at historic lows (near 12),which reflects investor complacency.

"Put another way, almost no one believes this market will go down."  

As I've repeatedly observed, the fundamental strategy for profiting from any investment is "buy low and sell high".  You buy an investment for $100 (when its price is low); you later sell it for $200 (when its price is high); you make a $100 profit. 

Conversely, if you buy an investment for $100 (when you mistakenly believe its price is low) and later sell it for $50 (when the price is even lower), you'll lose $50. 

The theory behind the "buy low and sell high" investment strategy seems obvious and simple.

In practice, however, "buy low and sell high" is complicated and hard to apply because: 1) it compels you to diligently research the current and historical price of whatever stock they're attracted to; and 2) compels investors to act contrary to whatever the mass of investors believe at any given moment.

Because most of us tend to be lazy, we don't want to "diligently research" whatever investment attracts us.

Because most of us are social creatures, we're most comfortable doing what everyone else is doing.  When everyone else is buying, we naturally tend to buy.  When everyone else is selling, we naturally tend to sell.  Most of us aren't emotionally wired to strike off on our own in violation of the "wisdom" of the majority.

Because most of us are lazy and inclined to "follow the herd," it's hard for most of us to "buy low and sell high".

However, the minority of investors who can "buy low and sell high are called "contrarians" because they act contrary to the majority's "conventional wisdom".

*  "Diligent research" into an investment is required in order to discern whether that investment's current price is high, low or somewhere in-between.  You can't "buy low" if you don't know a particular investment's price history and prospects.

Most investments rise and fall in price somewhat like a sine wave. Their prices go up for a while, then they go down, and later they go up again.  In order to decide if a particular investment should be purchased, "contrarians" must first accurately discern whether its current price is high (and therefore unlikely to go much higher) or low (and therefore likely to go higher).  If the price is already high and unlikely to go much higher, there's not much hope of applying the "buy low, sell high" strategy to make a profit.   On the other hand, if an investment's price is at historically or unreasonably low levels, unlikely to go much lower, and probably headed for a significant price rise-that's a candidate for applying the "buy low, sell high" strategy to making a profit.

All of which is easily said, but hard to do.

Lots of factors come into play:  the world economy, the national economy, the market for whatever product or service is provided for the particular investment, and even whether the Federal Reserve will continue to hold down interest rates or actually stop QE. 

The first step in "buy low, sell high" is to figure out for yourself whether today's price for a particular investment is high, low or somewhere in-between.  You'll have to figure it out for yourself because the essence of the buy low, sell high strategy is to be a "contrarian" and dismiss majority opinions as almost certainly mistaken.  That means you can't rely on other peoples' judgment. You have to be able to think for yourself.  If you're going to do what the majority does and believe what the majority believes, you will almost certainly lose your assets.

Of course, if you can find one or more good contrarian gurus to follow, you might not have to do all of your own research.  But, in the end, the great investors, the most profitable investors, tend to heed their own counsel and distance themselves not only from the majority, but also even from rank-and-file contrarian gurus.

*  "Buy low, sell high" is a perfect strategy for unemotional computers, but it's a terrible strategy for people with dependent personalities who are scared to death of being exposed as having acted in opposition to the herd.  Most investors would rather lose their investment than risk being seen to defy the herd's sentiment. They'd rather lose with the "herd" than profit without it.

If we're going to "buy low," we must buy at a time when majority agrees that our particular investment is not merely low-priced, but virtually worthless and unlikely to rise in the foreseeable future.  We "buy low" when the majority is convinced the particular investment can't rise.

Thus, to "buy low" we must be a contrarian who habitually bets against the majority's sentiment.   The more people who agree that an investment is going up (or down) the more likely they are to be wrong.  I.e., when 55% agree that an particular investment is going up (or down) they might be right, they might be wrong.  Hard to say.  But when 90% agrees that a particular investment is worthless and should be shunned, that investment is probably at or near its lowest price and (assuming other fundamentals are present to make that investment worthwhile) should be purchased.  The higher the percentage of people who believe that an investment is going up (or down), the more likely they are to be mistaken.

*  After you've done your due diligence and determined for yourself that a particular investment's price is unreasonably low, you buy.  You've completed the first requirement for making a profit:  you bought low.

Then you must exercise the second (unspoken) element of making a profit:  you wait.  You wait patiently until the price on your investment begins to rise and, ideally, reaches its "high".  That's when you sell high and take your profit.

In fact, the "buy low, sell high" strategy might be more accurately described as, "buy low, wait patiently, sell high". 

But there's a problem with patience.  Most of us don't have any.  We want what we want and we want it now.  We have trouble waiting patiently because we don't know for sure when our "sell high" profit opportunity will take place.  Patience instills doubt.  We lose confidence in our original "buy low, sell high" research.  We lose our nerve and are tempted to sell low rather than wait for the "sell high" moment.  Our mathematically undeniable formula (buy low, sell high) succumbs to our emotions.

But if we have patience and confidence in our original decision to "buy low," we can wait until the price of our investment rises and we can (finally!) sell high. 

Of course, if we truly "sell high," we'll be selling at a moment when 90% of investors agree that the price can only rise higher.  The price is high because the vast majority of investors believe that the price can only go higher.  To "sell high" means that, once again, we act as contrarians and go against the flow (which makes us uncomfortable).  We defy the majority's "wisdom" and it makes us nervous.  We sell when virtually everyone else is convinced that a particular investment can only go higher and can't possibly fall.

*  Today, when the stock markets are generally at or near record highs, studies indicate that 87% of investors are convinced that the markets can only go higher.  That majority sentiment gives investors great confidence and comfort in their stock investment decisions. 

However, that 87% figure is also exactly the sort of exaggerated sentiment that normally precedes a significant decline.  When 87% believe a record-high price is going higher, you are at or near a "sell high" moment.

It follows that when 51% of investors believe an investment will go higher and 49% believe that investment's price will fall (or vice versa), we actually have a fairly accurate price for that investment.  So long as investor sentiment is about 50/50-half bet long, half bet short-you may not know if the market is going up or down, but you can be confident that there will be no drastic change in price, either way.  It might go up a little.  It might go down a little.  But the price set by a 50/50 split in investor sentiment will be roughly correct.

That's the purpose of the Free Market:  to "discover" a fair price-one agreed to by both buyers and sellers-by finding a price point that half think is a good buy and half think is a good sell.

However, as investor sentiment becomes increasingly polarized (say, to a 90% versus 10%), you can bet that the majority sentiment is wrong, and that the investment's price is due for a major "correction". 

More, you can bet that any investor polarization is due to some extreme and artificial stimulus that's affecting the investment or market.  That "stimulation" could be "hype" promoted by one investment firm or another.  That "stimulation" could also be the result of some distortion in the supply of currency or interest rates being caused by the Federal Reserve or national government.

Today's 87% confidence in the stock market almost certainly signals that the record-high market prices are irrational, unjustified and about to fall.  It appears to be a "sell high" signal.

*  The MarketWatch.com article continued:

"The overwhelming view of Wall Street can be summarized by two Morgan Stanley analysts, who predicted that the S&P 500 will be at 3,000 in five years, a 50% increase. If they're right, the Dow will hit 25,000 lickety-split. . . . This is a market that is unstoppable. If only they can convince Ma and Pa, the market would go even higher."

Indeed.  If Wall Street salesmen could only manipulate the remaining 13% of market sentiment that anticipates a price decline, the markets could rise to even higher records.   But can the 87% of Wall Street bulls convince the bearish 13%, that the bulls are right?  If they can't recruit more bull buyers, can the market set new records?  If the 87% of bulls are convinced that now is the time to buy, can they find sufficient sellers among the remaining 13% of bears?

 "No one believes the bears' Chicken Little doom-and-gloom warnings. . . . The market has shrugged off multiple geopolitical problems, low market volume, trillions of dollars of debt, sky-high sentiment, extreme P/E ratiosfor many high-flying stocks, and dozens of other red flags. Yawn. The only gorilla in the room that matters is the Fed."

To say that the "market has shrugged off multiple geopolitical problems, low market volume, etc. is like saying a meth-amphetamine addict has "shrugged off" the need to sleep.   What we see in today's markets is not, cannot be, evidence of anything as casual as "shrugging".  As with the meth-addict, today's markets' extraordinary "shrugging" can only result from some gross distortion of reality.

 As for the Fed being the only remaining "gorilla," that's true.  The Federal Reserve is the Great Manipulator, the Manipulator of Last Resort, the economy's 800-pound "gorilla".   The Fed has become the primary "reality" in our markets.  But is the Fed's manipulation "real" in the sense that it can be sustained?

Nearly 90% of American investors currently believe the stock market can only go up.  They ultimately hold that belief because they also presume that the Federal Reserve's "life support" for the stock markets can't and won't be significantly curtailed.  But is that presumption true, false or even irrational? 

The Fed's stock market life support system has worked like this:

1)    The Fed printed trillions of dollars to give to banks as Quantitative Easing (QE) under the pretext that the money would be loaned to ordinary Americans who'd spend the borrowed money to purchase new cars, new homes and flat-screen TVs and thereby stimulate the economy.

2)    The Fed suppressed the interest rate to irrationally low levels under the pretext that the low interest rates would entice ordinary Americans to borrow money from the banks and spend it on cars, homes, and TVs to stimulate the economy.  However,

3)    In the midst of the "Great Recession" ordinary Americans refused to go deeper into debt and stopped borrowing money from banks.

4)    More, the banks weren't genuinely interested in lending money to ordinary Americans at irrationally low interest rates since the banks couldn't make much profit off the loans and-during the "Great Recession"-ordinary Americans were more likely to default on their loans.  If the ordinary American defaulted on their loans, the banks not only couldn't make much profit, they'd lose their principal. Banks didn't want to lend to Joe Sixpack.

5)    But, banks were eager to lend money to major corporations because major corporations were less likely to go bankrupt and default on their loans

6)    Plus, irrationally low interest rates made it profitable for major corporations to borrow money and spend it.

7)    The problem was that major corporations had little interest in buying cars, homes and flat-screen TVs in order to stimulate the economy.  Instead, those corporations borrowed "cheap money" (low interest rates) from the banks to buy stocks in their own corporations.  These major corporations knew if their own stock had a high probability of generating a profit that would exceed the inflation rate.  A significant portion of the QE trillions of dollars (that were supposedly intended to be loaned to ordinary Americans to buy products that would stimulate the economy) were actually loaned to major corporations that invested the funds in the stock markets.   

8)    Result?  The Fed's QE policies did relatively little to directly stimulate the economy, but did a great deal to stimulate the stock markets.  Based on QE, corporations borrowed, corporations bought stocks, and stock market indices therefore rose to record highs.  This rise was "artificial" since it was primarily based on the artificial stimulus provided by QE. 

9)    Prognosis?  As the Fed stops printing additional billions of dollars each month, the supply of QE dollars available to lend to major corporations (so they can buy stocks) will tend to wither.  That's already happening.  More importantly, when the Fed finally raises interest rates, corporations will no longer have access to "cheap money" and will slow or stop borrowing to buy stocks.  When corporations stop buying stocks, there should be a major stock market "correction".  Some guru's predict that this correction could cause markets to lose 30% or more of their currently-perceived value.

10)   When will we see the correction?  No one knows.  But, insofar as this correction: a) could be triggered by rising interest rates; and b) this is an election year, you can bet that the Fed will not begin to raise interest rates until sometime after this November's election-perhaps as early as December or, more likely, first quarter of next year.  Once it's clear that interest rates are rising and will continue to rise, corporations will stop borrowing to buy stocks, demand for stocks will decline and the stock market indices should fall.   

Most of the 87% who currently believe that the bull markets for stocks will never end don't know it, but they're basing that belief on the underlying presumption that the Federal Reserve will never stop or reduce QE. 

It's no surprise that this 87% doesn't understand the Fed's role in stimulating stock market prices.  Because this 87% are not "contrarians," they don't need to study the fundamentals underlying their investment decisions.  All they need to do is "follow the herd".  Because they don't study to discover the intrinsic value of whatever investment they're purchasing, their only economic indicator is other peoples' actions.  They believe that investing is a popularity contest and the best investments can be deciding by simply voting and without regard to intrinsic value. 

If most people are buying, the 87% will follow and cause stock prices to rise to irrational highs.  If people begin to sell, the 87% will not only follow but also cause a panic that will cause stock prices to plummet to an irrational "low". 

"Contrarians," on the other hand, will wait patiently, knowing that the "herd" will be every bit as over-emotional and ignorant when the price of stocks plunge as they were when those same stock prices soared.  When the "herd" pushes stock prices to an unreasonable high, that's the contrarians' "sell high" moment when they can capture profits.  When the 87% pushes stock prices to an unreasonable low, that'll be the contrarians' "buy low" point where they begin another investment cycle.

Contrarians are neither bulls nor bears.  They aren't optimists or pessimists.  They are objectivists who study particular investments and public sentiment and invest accordingly.  They are also people who regularly profit from their investments.  They know that the majority's sentiment-especially a large majority like 87%-will be wrong almost every time.  Therefore, the contrarians always seem to "go against the flow"-especially when that "flow" is strongly up or down.

Contrarians understand that whenever an investment's price is no longer close to a 50/50 split between bulls and bears, that price is due for a correction.  The stronger the majority's sentiment, the stronger the polarization between bulls and bears (say, 90% versus 10%) the more likely that the majority is wrong and the coming correction will be dramatic.

Today's contrarians understand that QE has stimulated the stock markets rather than the economy.  Today's contrarians believe that the Fed can't hold interest rates down indefinitely.  Contrarians know that once interest rates begin to rise, the stock indices should fall dramatically.  They also know that once the fall begins, the "herd" will not merely sell, but also panic and probably drive prices down to levels that are breathtakingly low.

If you accept the idea that only contrarians (those who go against the flow) tend to profit from the markets, and if you can see that majority sentiment is polarized in favor stocks and against gold, then you should recognize that stocks are near a "sell high" moment while gold is near a "buy low" moment. 

It takes some intelligence to understand the "buy low, sell high" strategy.  But it also takes courage.  

If you have sufficient brains and courage to be a contrarian, you could profit in today's markets by "goin' against the flow".   If you're an investor who lacks either the intelligence or the courage required to be a contrarian, you may soon lose much of your investments.  

Is ISIS going to attack our schools in the US?

BY ADMIN, ON SEPTEMBER 25TH, 2014

IN THE NEWS......

"Sad will be the day when the American people forget their traditions and their history, and no longer remember that the country they love, the institutions they cherish, and the freedom they hope to preserve, were born from the throes of armed resistance to tyranny, and nursed in the rugged arms of fearless men."

Roger Sherman, one of the five committee members who drafted and signed the Declaration of Independence

Britain on Thursday said new powers to punish rigging of Libor interest rates with criminal sanctions should be extended for seven major benchmarks, drawing in oil, gold and currency markets.

"The government has today launched a consultation on extending the new legislation the government put in place to regulate Libor to cover further benchmarks in the foreign exchange, fixed income and commodity markets," said a statement from the Treasury.

The government said it wished to extend the legislation to the London Gold Fixing and the LMBA Silver Price, which determine the price of gold and silver in the London market.

Also targeted is the ICE Brent futures contract, "which acts as the crude oil futures market's principal financial benchmark", the Treasury said.

The government wants to extend the legislation to cover also the WM/Reuters 4pm London Fix, or "dominant global foreign exchange benchmark" and the ISDAFix, described as the "principal global benchmark for swap rates and spreads for interest rate swap transactions".

The two other markets mentioned are the Sterling Overnight Index Average (SONIA) and the Repurchase Overnight Index Average (RONIA), which both serve as reference rates for overnight index swaps.

"Ensuring that the key rates that underpin financial markets are robust, and that anyone who seeks to manipulate them is subject to the full force of the law is vital," Economic Secretary to the Treasury Andrea Leadsom said in the statement.

"That's why the government is determined to deal with abuses, tackle the unacceptable behaviour of the few and ensure that markets are fair for the many who depend on them."

The government, working alongside the Bank of England and Britain's financial regulators, said it intends to have the new regime for the designated benchmarks in place by the end of the year.

Britain had announced in June its intention to punish the manipulation of key financial benchmarks with criminal sanctions. On Thursday it spelled out which markets would be targeted.

The proposals appear as a number of banks worldwide are being probed over potential rigging of the foreign exchange market. This comes meanwhile after some traders have been found guilty of manipulating the inter-bank Libor interest rate. Britain had already threatened prison for those found guilty of rigging Libor.

The Libor scandal erupted two years ago when British bank Barclays was fined �290 million ($473 million, 371 million euros) by British and US regulators for attempted manipulation of Libor and Euribor interbank rates between 2005 and 2009. Euribor is the eurozone equivalent of Libor.

The London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor, is a flagship instrument used all over the world, affecting what banks, businesses and individuals pay to borrow money. 

Other banks have meanwhile faced far bigger fines than Barclays over Libor, notably Swiss lender UBS which was ordered to pay a penalty of $1.5 billion.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-britain-eyes-libor-abuse-powers-for-oil-gold-markets-2014-9#ixzz3ES0cCVJ0

EU proposes deal to ensure Ukraine gets winter gas supplies from Russia, pays back debts

BERLIN (AP) - Ukraine would repay $3.1 billion in debts to Russia in exchange for guaranteed gas deliveries through the harsh winter months under a proposal unveiled Friday after talks brokered by the European Union.

The proposed deal, which would expire next spring, is aimed at averting a supply crisis in Ukraine and the EU over the winter but wouldn't resolve a deeper dispute over what price Kiev should pay for past and future deliveries.

An arbitration court in Stockholm is expected to rule only next year on that. "Today, we worked out a sound draft for a winter package, and I am confident that this draft can win the approval of all those involved in Moscow and Kiev," EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said.

 He said there is a good chance of the deal being signed next week, when he plans to get the two countries' energy ministers and top gas executives back together in Berlin. Those officials will now consult with governments in Kiev and Moscow.

(I am glad the EU is patting themselves on the back for the commitment to pay Russia for the back payments so the people have heat this winter....However....as they think they have the solution and Russia will go along they still have to consult with Kiev and Moscow.  Will Putin accept Al?

BOSTON (AP) - Many Massachusetts households are going to see their electric bills shoot up 37 percent this winter,(there and everywhere will see rate increases)  a rate increase  will put additional strain on low-income families. State regulators approved the increase for National Grid household customers that would mean an average of $33 per month more for the typical residential customer and would push a typical monthly bill higher than $150.

Large-business customers will see even higher increases. National Grid has almost 1.3 million residential and business electric customers in Massachusetts. The new rates take effect in November.

"This is pretty bad, and it's going to really have a bearing on a lot of Massachusetts households' abilities to just make ends meet this winter," John Howat, senior energy analyst at the National Consumer Law Center in Boston, told The Boston Globe.

History shows higher interest rates don't always upend stocks

(this is what they want you to think but lets not forget the trillions of dollars in debt of this country....a bankrupt country...you can not compare today with yesteryear except fiat currencies always....and I mean always collapse.

NEW YORK (AP) - It's no surprise that the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate hike worries stock investors. The Fed's unprecedented economic stimulus has in large part driven a surge in stock prices since 2009. The central bank has bought trillions of dollars of bonds and kept short-term interest rates close to zero. That's allowed businesses and consumers to refinance their debt at lower rates, freeing up cash to spend. But if history is a guide, investors have nothing to fear. In the nine instances since 1955 that the Fed has started raising rates after a recession, the Standard & Poor's 500 index has risen by an average of 58 percent between the first hike and the peak of the market, according to LPL Financial, an independent broker-dealer based in Boston. The Fed is set to end its bond purchases in October and most economists expect the first short-term rate hike by mid-2015.

Late Thursday afternoon, the Obama Administration quietly announced a policy change that will allow illegal aliens to join the military.

The change to an existing policy, known as the Military Accessions in the National Interest (MAVNI) program, will allow up to 1,500 illegal aliens who qualified for deferred action under Pres. Obama's Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) amnesty to enlist if the illegal alien possesses high-demand skills, rare foreign language expertise, or specialized health care training.

Under existing law, illegal aliens are forbidden from joining the military, however, the Secretary of Defense does have some discretion if it is "vital to the national interest". But in order to be eligible for MAVNI, illegal aliens have to pass a background check, and the woman who create MAVNI said back in May that DACA recipients would in all likelihood fail the background check. We fully expect the Administration to find a way around it.

WHILE AMERICANS ARE TURNED DOWN

Sadly, Pres. Obama's announcement comes at a time when the military is rejecting Americans for enlistment more than ever before. A report published by the Kansas City Star earlier this year said that as many as 80% of Americans trying to enlist are ultimately rejected. Furthermore, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel announced plans earlier this year to draw down the overall number of troops while the military has been simultaneously forcing current officers out of service.

THE THIRD GREAT WAVE OF IMMIGRATION

A new report from the Center for Immigration Studies examines new data from the Census Bureau's latest release of its American Community Survey and finds that the U.S. immigration population reached 41.3 million in 2013. That's the highest level in our nation's history, and the proportion of the foreign-born population to the country's overall population is at its highest level since the Second Great Wave of the late-1800s and early-1900s.

Just 25 years ago, the share of the immigrant population was just 7.9%, but it has spiked to its current share of 13.1% more than doubling since 1980.

At the height of the Second Great Wave (1905-14), the average annual flow of legal immigrants into the United States was 1.01 million per year. But since 2001, the annual flow has reached 1.05 million. At all other times in our nation's history since the end of the Civil War, annual flows averaged 400,000 per year.

What's fascinating is that many political and business leaders alike think we need to further increase legal immigration and guest-worker programs even though these levels are at all-time highs. A report from the center for immigration studies found that all net job growth since 2000 has gone to newly-arrived immigrants while the number of native-born Americans holding jobs dropped by 127,000 over the same period.

Last week, House Speaker John Boehner told the American Enterprise Institute that we need to pass "comprehensive immigration reform" to grow the economy. And earlier this month, Facebook founder, Mark Zuckerberg was pushing for more immigration while hanging out with the world's richest businessman, Carlos Slim. The "immigration reform" that both Boehner and Zuckerberg support would double the current annual flow of legal immigrants, adding more competition to the job market for unemployed Americans and legal immigrants and driving down wages.

A report this week from fivethirtyeight.com included data showing that the median household income in the United States has become stagnate over the last 15 years, and today's inflation-adjusted median household income is at the same level it was at the end of the Reagan Administration after growing steadily for decades. Coincidently, that was the time Congress granted amnesty to 3-4 million illegal aliens and increased legal immigration to its current levels.

Abandoned trailer containing thousands of pounds of rotten chicken towed to Montana landfill

MISSOULA, Mont. (AP) - An abandoned trailer containing 37,000 pounds of rotten chicken was towed to a landfill Friday after sitting at a western Montana truck stop for possibly a month or longer, and its contents were dumped in a freshly dug pit. Authorities say a truck driver abandoned the trailer after his employer, Dixie River Freight Inc., refused his demands for more money to deliver its then-frozen cargo. He left the chicken worth $80,000 to thaw and then rot when the fuel for the trailer's refrigeration unit ran out. The Nampa, Idaho-based trucking company reported it missing Aug. 27. The trailer was discovered this week at the Flying J Truck Stop west of Missoula, dripping rancid juices onto the concrete and attracting flies. Nampa police Sgt. Joe Ramirez said it might have been there for more than a month.

Orders for durable U.S. goods (goods, as household appliances, machinery, or sports equipment, that are not consumed or destroyed in use and can be used for a period of time, usually three or more years)  .plunged by a record 18.2% in August after a record 22.5% gain in July, mainly because of up-and-down demand for airplanes.

 Orders rose by 0.7% if the volatile transportation sector is stripped out and business investment also increased, government data showed, a sign that companies continue to spend at a moderate pace.

 Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected orders to fall by a seasonally adjusted 17.3%.

Orders for core capital goods - a broader measure of business investment - climbed by 0.6% in August, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Shipments of core capital goods, a category used to calculate quarterly economic growth, edged up by 0.1% and rose for the fourth straight month.

How does that happen when yesterday the report for sales of new single-family homes in the U.S. rose sharply in August, reaching the highest level in more than six years - quite a relief from the unexpected decline last month.

Data released by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development on Sep 25 showed that new home sales increased 18% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000

The sharp increase in August suggests that consumer demand is improving. The number also improved 33% from the year-ago quarter. (doesn't seem to be with the drop of durable goods)

New homes inventory for sale was 203,000 units in September. This is a 4.8-month supply at the current sales pace - the slowest so far this year.

Per data released on Sep 17, U.S. Homebuilder Confidence hit a 9-year high in the month, clearly indicating that builders are upbeat about their prospects for future sales. Homebuilders' confidence, as indicated by the National Association of Home Builders (:NAHB)/Wells Fargo housing market index rose 4 points to 59 in September - the highest since Nov 2005 and the 4th consecutive monthly gain for the index.

Sale of existing homes fell 1.8% in August, after four consecutive months of gains, per the Sep 22 data release.

A good day ....Resignation of Eric Holder

With Eric Holder's announcement Thursday that he's stepping down as attorney general, only two original Cabinet members remain for President Obama's final White House years. (let us not forget Iranian-born Communist sympathizer Valerie Jarrett is a Senior Advisor to the President of the United States and Assistant to the President for Public Engagement and Intergovernmental Affairs in the Obama administration.)

   Holder apparently decided to leave over Labor Day, .

   Holder is the fourth-longest serving attorney general ever - third-longest if he stays into December.

   In the Bush administration, only Labor Secretary Elaine Chao stayed for both terms.

   President Bill Clinton retained four: Attorney General Janet Reno (after a slightly delayed start); Interior Secretary Bruce Babbitt; Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala; and Education Secretary Richard Riley were there from 1993-2001.

   Now if we can get rid of the rest starting with Reid, Pelosi, Feinstein, Boxer and Schummer and the list goes on.

   We only go after evil dictators that stand in the way of our oil and gas interests? Saudi Arabia and it's monarchy is about as evil as you get ( along with the Israeli government) but why are they our BFF? This is and always has been about deposing Assad so we can run a Qatar pipeline through Syria once Assad is out of the way.

Watch for the next false flag when we claim Assad shoots down one of our planes or drones and now we have to take him out! So many times before as in "remember the Maine", the Lusitania, Gulf of Tonkin in Vietnam, OBL in Afghanistan, Yellow Cake in Iraq and so many other false flags. If we want real peace, arrest the Banksters and leaders of the MIC along with wackos like John McCain, John Kerry etc.              

USDA rolls out details of new farm payment programs based more on farmer risk

By DAVID PITT

(AP:DES MOINES, Iowa) DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) - Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack says farmers can begin signing up for new safety net programs next week established in the 2014 farm bill that replace the much-criticized direct payments with government payouts based on risks farmers face.

Vilsack announced the roll-out of the programs on Thursday, and said farmers can sign up as soon as Sept. 29.

The programs can help farmers protect themselves against price drops and from lower revenue in poor crop years.

Payouts this year could be significant since anticipated record corn and soybean harvests have sent commodity prices plummeting. If farmers lose money in the harvest, the programs will enable them to collect significant government payments.

Vilsack expects farmers will take several months to research their options, talk with advisers and use online calculators to determine their best choices.

The farm bill, signed into law in February, provided $6 million to set up local meetings and for the design of online tools and creation of educational materials for farmers to help them choose which program would be best.

Instead of direct payments, farmers of major row crops - mostly corn, soybeans, wheat and rice - can choose between subsidies that pay out when revenue drops or when prices drop. Cotton and dairy supports were overhauled to similarly pay out when farmers have losses.

US judge orders Texas brothers to give up 'staggering' $187M for brazen fraud spanning years

NEW YORK (AP) - A federal judge in New York has ordered a Texas businessman and the estate of his brother to surrender more than $187 million after a jury found that they engaged in a massive fraud to evade taxes. Judge Shira Scheindlin on Thursday ordered Sam Wyly and the estate of his brother Charles to give up the money. She said the final amount including prejudgment interest could reach $400 million. The judge said she knew the amount would be "staggering" and among the largest ever awarded against individuals, but it was necessary nonetheless. A jury earlier this year found that the brothers evaded taxes from 1992 to 2002 on more than $500 million earned through offshore trusts set up to dodge taxes. Attorneys in the case did not immediately return messages seeking comment.

Navajo to get $554 million in settlement with US over mismanagement; largest deal of its kind

FELICIA FONSECA

(AP:FLAGSTAFF, Ariz.) FLAGSTAFF, Ariz. (AP) - The Navajo Nation is poised to receive $554 million from the federal government over mismanagement of tribal resources in the largest settlement of its kind for an American Indian tribe.    

Much of the land on the 27,000-square-mile reservation has been leased for things like farming, grazing, oil and gas development, mining and housing.

 The leases once were largely overseen by the government, which mismanaged the revenue and failed to properly invest and account for it, according to the tribe.

The Navajo Nation originally sought $900 million when the lawsuit was filed in 2006."We had a strong claim," said Navajo Nation Council Delegate Lorenzo Curle for October.

"Tribes across the country have filed more than 100 breach-of-trust cases against the U.S. government. The Navajo Nation settlement is the largest, exceeding the next highest amount by $170 million, Sandler said.  The Interior Department said it is working to resolve cases with other tribes without going to trial. Since April 2012, the federal government has resolved about 80 cases, totaling $2.5 billion.

Study: One in Ten Adults in U.S. Not Proficient in English

By Andrew Johnson

The number of working-age adults in the United States with limited proficiency in English has more than doubled since 1980, according to a new Brookings Institution study. Immigrants proficient in English, the study notes, tend to earn substantially higher incomes.

"English proficiency is a strong predictor of economic standing among immigrants, regardless of the amount of education they have attained, and it is associated with the greater academic and economic success of the workers' children," the study found.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the rise comes out to nearly 1 in 10 adults who lack sufficient English skills, two and a half times more than three decades ago. Two-thirds of those lacking proficiency are Spanish speakers.

In large cities, the numbers are even higher. For example, in Los Angeles and Miami, the Journal reports almost 25 percent of adults lack proficient English. The study also finds that cities such as Indianapolis have witnessed a near 100 percent increase in limited-English speakers since 2000.

BORN TO RUN

By Herbalist Wendy Wilson 

Modern times have promoted leisure more than any time in human history. Technology and modern inventions have delivered convenient devices.. Thank goodness not everyone is sitting around neglecting to exercise their common sense and their body. The human body was built for movement and if you are into running, we are built to go the distance. Some people are reluctant to get into jogging or running for fear of wearing out their joints. It is true that while running a marathon that 90% of the runners will sustain injuries. You have to wonder how the ancient people ran great distances in just a thin pair of sandals without injury. Do you suppose the invention of the sneaker has promoted a poor running technique and the injuries? Is it possible that the association of running and painful injuries is a new concern and didn't impact ancient man? What can we learn from the past that will make our future healthier and safer? Let's find out.

DUSTY FEET

According to Harvard biologist Daniel Lieberman and biologist Dennis Bramble of the University of Utah, humans were born to run and we got really good at it. Being able to run was a life-saving endeavor. You would need to run fast as a defensive strategy and you would also need to catch your dinner. Most four-legged animals can outrun man in a short distance but not with regard to long distances - humans are designed to out run nearly all animals. When animals overheat they cool off by slowing down and panting. Humans cool off by sweating and there is little body hair to hold in the heat. This offers humans the advantage of endurance. The biologists believe that early man engaged in distance running, chasing animals to overheat and tire them and then kill them for food. Primitive hunting inventions came later making this job much easier.

FOOT MECHANICS

Another interesting observation which was documented in the February 2009 Journal of Experimental Biology is the human foot is designed to run with less effort. Our feet, compared to animal paws, make running more efficient according to the report. Humans have shorter toes than animals and when you increase the length of the toes by 20% it doubles the mechanical effort it takes to run.  Man's big toe is straight and is designed as a push-off for running. An ape's toe is to the side. The design of man's feet and legs all lend themselves for great movement and speed; no animal has this design. For instance chimpanzees and apes don't have the ligaments and tendons humans have, which are essential for endurance running. This design also helps man keep his head balanced as he runs and to also use the glycogen stored in the muscles for an easy twenty-mile run.

WHY THE INJURIES?

If we are designed to run why do runners sustain injuries? Endurance running needs to start early to help the body develop the ligaments and tendons to support the exertion. Waiting to run in adulthood will stress these areas. Our ancient ancestors did not run on artificial surfaces in scientifically designed sneakers. They ran barefoot or in sandals. Introducing artificial surfaces to running will change the biomechanics of running and it appears not for the better. The experts recommend that adult runners avoid the strenuous runs and build-up to long distance runs over a long period of time. They also recommend adopting the strategy of a long-distance runner who would periodically take walking breaks. Running on a variety of surfaces in simple shoes will help build up the foot and leg strength. Runner Christopher McDougall and author of the book Born to Run says that he was often plagued with running injuries and then studied the running techniques of the Mexico Tarahumara Indians. For three years now McDougall runs without the Americanized running shoe and it has corrected his form and has prevented further injury. 

NO SWEAT

Our bodies were also born to sweat. We have glands (apocrine and eccrine) designed to release fluids to cool us off and release toxins. We sweat when we exert, when we're nervous and when the weather is hot. These events will stimulate the sweat glands and they release fluids from the glands through the skin's surface. Modern man blocks the unpleasant sweat and smell with cosmetic products (antiperspirants and deodorants). The health problem we face is that the ingredients in these sundry items can clog our glands and trap toxins in. The average antiperspirant/deodorant will have wax, liquid emollient (blocks the gland from sweating), and aluminum compounds, which out of all the ingredients is the highest in volume. How does the antiperspirant block the sweat? The aluminum ions are taken into the cells, which line the gland ducts. According to dermatologist Dr. Eric Hanson of the University of North Carolina's Dermatology Department, moisture flows in with the aluminum ion and swells the ducts shut. Sweat cannot be released. The average over-the-counter antiperspirant contains between 10% to 25% aluminum, which decreases sweating by a minimum of 20%.  Normally, the liver and kidneys will help remove toxins from the body however, for those with organ failure the 2.5 million sweat glands will be a backup.  Keep in mind that scientific research as discovered that the aluminum salts in underarm products can damage cell DNA.

IT'S IN THE BLOOD

Your skin is your second kidney and it absorbs what you put on it. Sound reason would dictate that if the average antiperspirant can change or damage DNA then that means the chemical ingredients in many sundry items are hazardous to our health. The cosmetic industry has over 10,000 chemicals at their disposal and many of them are carcinogenic and many disrupt our endocrine system and harm our reproductive system. So what is a consumer to do? Health authorities and the FDA say the additives are safe and consumers are not at risk of diseases like cancer or Alzheimer's. However a study which appeared in the Journal of Inorganic Biochemistry in 2013 found aluminum in the nipple fluids of breast cancer patients. These patients were compared to healthy women with no history of cancer. The study opened to door to the question, does aluminum in antiperspirants and vaccines cause breast cancer? If it could be proven that it does you can imagine the legal ramifications and therefore I suspect such research is discouraged or buried. There is this one article in pubmed in which researchers wanted to see how a breast mammary epithelial cell reacted to the type of aluminum found is antiperspirants or vaccines and they reported that there was a loss of independent cell growth followed by mutation of the DNA. The study concluded that aluminum encourages a sequence of events to trigger or induce stress on the cells creating an normal cell. So, they claim the aluminum is not a direct cause of breast cancer but can be a contributing factor by weakening the cells. Another study measured to see if any aluminum from antiperspirants made its way into breast milk and it did. Of course, if it is in the blood it can be in all the body fluids. Consumers need to be careful of any cosmetic products used as heavy metals are also found in lipstick. A study done at the University of California Berkeley School of Public Health, tested commercial lipsticks for dangerous levels of heavy metals and toxins. Out of thirty popular brands they found products to contain 20% metals and toxins to be a health hazard when used daily. Their findings were published in the journal of Environmental Health Perspectives. 

BACK TO EDEN

The more I read about how toxic a majority of products and foods are I'm encouraged to live more simply. Our ancient ancestors used essential oils to smell sweet. Any cosmetics they used were plant-based and a majority can again be found at organic markets. Even natural hair dyes are available. For a deodorant I us a mineral crystal or spray and I liked them so much I offer them in my herb shop. Look for Crystalux solid push-up sticks (small and large) and the spray. You will still sweat but you won't smell. The solid sticks last 1 to 2 years. Why risk yourself to heavy metals and the possibility of diseases like cancer when there are healthier options. Also, just like our bodies are designed to run so is our immune system designed to encounter and neutralize pathogens. Using antibiotics or antiviral drugs hinders this process and creates an immune system that can't run a marathon. Each of us has a due diligence to protect and support the body God gave us and not corrupt it. Now is the time to change to a simpler and healthier lifestyle and cleanse away the heavy metals, pharmaceutical residues and radio active particles lodged in your body. You can do that with my Organ Cleanses. Use my immune boosting formulas for the cold and flu to build your life-long immunity as nature intended. Call Apothecary Herbs to order your Organ Cleanse package (standard or upgrade) and a Pandemic Kit or Cold & Flu pack. Don't forget the Dr. Mom approved My 3 Amigos for children to keep the viruses away. Call now toll free 866-229-3663, International 704-885-0277 http://www.thepowerherbs.com, where your healthcare options just became endless.      

Sources:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/27/health/27well.html?_r=0

http://health.howstuffworks.com/skin-care/underarm-care/problems/question627.htm

http://www.collective-evolution.com/2013/09/14/attention-deodorant-users-new-studies-link-aluminum-to-breast-cancer/

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22223356

http://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/1205518/

OUTTA THE PARK I will be interviewing the inventor of this excellent and organic hot sauce on Herb Talk 9/25/14 at 7:30 pm EST.

COMING UP ON HERB TALK LIVE

Herbalist Wendy Wilson on Herb Talk Live

Saturday morning show:

7 am EST on GCN

Weekday show:

7 pm EST on AVR

9/25/14 Scott Granai makes Otta the Park Hot Sauce will be my guest

Shortwave show 8 pm EST WWCR 4840

Go to http://www.thepowerherbs.com/archive.html Herb Talk Live & Radio Archive area for network link access and past shows to download and share. For Android users you can download a FREE app for Herb Talk Live on GCN. See the download link under radio archives at top of page.

THE NEW HMO

Apothecary Herbs is introducing their version of the HMO (Herb Medicine Options). Unlike insurance companies, our HMO is not about drugs, co-pays and deductibles. Our HMO is about a healthy lifestyle without drug dependency. Our HMO members are savvy and can often take advantage of the HMO discounts. There are no member fees and you can simply request to sign up by emailing or calling Apothecary Herbs support@thepowerherbs.com or 866-229-3663, International 704-885-0277.  Current members can take advantage of discounts. I like discount coupons but they tend to expire. HMO members you can use your discount when they want.

HMO1 offers FREE ground ship on orders over $75 (US orders)
HMO2 offers 15% off orders over $100.00 
HMO3 offers $15.00 off plus FREE ground ship on orders over $250.00 (US orders)
*These discounts will be active for about 3 months and will change. Members will also receive special offers on selective items in our store.

"NEW" from Apothecary Herbs POWER GREENS FOR PETS - Keeps you away from the vet.  Natural herbs for dogs and cats. Because we want organic pets

Power Greens is a blend of organic plants and natural herbs containing vitamins, minerals and 22 amino acids found naturally in these whole-food plants. Easy to digest with healthy digestion enzymes. You will notice the vibrant color of the greens and other ingredients in Power Greens for Pets because it is made with certified organic herbs grown to Tilth Standards (the highest organic standards in the industry). Compared to Dinovite�, Power Greens for Pets is made with superior grade ingredients and will produce much faster and better results in the health of your pet. No need for large scoops of our Power Greens for Pets to get results. Depending on the size of your pet 1/2 teaspoon to one tablespoon is all you'll need. Your pet will be healthier and you'll save money. For more info call 866-229-3663 http://www.thepowerherbs.com/herb/Natural-Pet-Food.html

MORE HERB SECRETS IN THE POWER HERBS e-BOOK. By popular demand The Power Herbs e-book is available with symptom/herb reference guide, information on organ cleansing and how to make your own herbal tinctures plus a whole lot more. Go to http://www.thepowerherbs.com/Books-And-Newsletters/The-Power-Herbs-e-Book-cleansing-immune-boosting.html and click on Books. You must have email to order and receive the e-book a PDF version of The Power Herb book for just $14.99. At this time, we do not offer this title in hard copy.

NEW DANDELION ROOT LIQUID

Try Dandelion Root Tincture for inflammation, blood purification, respiratory infections, digestion and cancer protection at http://www.thepowerherbs.com/herb/Dandelion-Inflammation-Blood-Purifier.html. 

HERB KITS EXTEND YOUR FIRST AID KITS

Do you have your Pandemic Kit yet? Here is what folks are saying about the 100% organic Pandemic Kit made by Apothecary Herbs. "I have this kit and recommend everyone have at least one on hand (or more depending on family size) for a pandemic." Rebecca Carley, MD, Hickory, NC and "I have one and glad I do; just in case. I like the long shelf life." Melody Cedarstrom, Port Matilda, PA (more customer feedback at http://www.thepowerherbs.com) or call 866-229-3663 to order your kit today.

PURE ZINC ENERGY

Pure energy is organic and instantly absorbed - transporting nutrition to every cell in your body. It is a super food for the body to repair, build and fortify itself. Where do you get it? It's called Body Foundation Food Mix and is at Apothecary Herbs 866-229-3663, International 704-885-0277 http://www.thepowerherbs.com. This pure energy food source is so efficient; you won't feel hungry between meals and can safely lose weight.

DETOX PRODUCTS

Apothecary Herbs has released a new product called Liver Detox Tea. You can layer this tea with Milk Thistle Tincture for a gentle yet effective liver cleanse. This is a nice option if you can't do the Liver/Gall Bladder Flush using olive oil. You will find this new product under Herbal Teas at http://www.thepowerherbs.com. Also new is the Liver & Gall Bladder Tincture with dandelion root for more anticancer protection. This formula is available in 1 oz, 2 oz and 4 oz sizes. You will find this item under Organ Body Cleanses at http://www.thepowerherbs.com. You can layer this tincture with the Liver Detox Tea and be well!

BE PREPARED

Being prepared is never a waste of time. Get your own organic garden growing and stock as much healthy foodstuffs as you can. You'll also need backup medicine but the over-the-counter and prescription medicines have a limited shelf life of two years or less. However, your organic medicines have a ten year shelf life without side effects. Call the folks at Apothecary Herbs for their Natural Medicine Starter Stock-up Package or make sure you get one of their many herb kits for boosting immune system and protecting you from viruses, bacteria and other pathogens. Call Apothecary Herbs 866-229-3663, International 704-885-0277 online http://www.thepowerherbs.com, where your healthcare options just became endless.

ALLERGY RELIEF

If you suffer from allergies (sneezing, itchy watery eyes, stuffy or runny nose, sinus pressure or sinus infections) try the Echinacea Deluxe formula and Herbal Eyewash both around $20.00 from Apothecary Herbs. Call now toll free 866-229-3663 http://www.thepowerherbs.com.

APOTHECARY HERBS VITAMIN VAULT - STOCK UP AND SAVE!

You already know that you can save on the half and full case discounts in the Vitamin Vault area at http://www.thepowerherbs.com. Apothecary Herbs has added a new item called the Natural Medicine Starter Stock-up Package. This package is designed for those preparing for their medical future and contains immune boosting, pain & inflammation, organ cleanses, vitamin, mineral, amino acid and protein products plus a Pandemic Kit and it comes with a savings. Visit http://www.thepowerherbs.com or call toll free to order your Starter Stock-up Package 866-229-3663, International 704-885-0277.  

MALE & FEMALE ORGAN CLEANSES KITS - Don't give disease a foothold. You will have the power to cleanse the bowel, urinary, liver, gall bladder and blood system with this cleanse package. For added cleansing, ask about how you can upgrade your order to include the prostate cleanse for men or the Kidney/Bladder cleanse for females.  Go to http://www.thepowerherbs.com or call their 24-hour live customer service line 866-229-3663, International 704-885-0277.

STARTER KIT & ONE-YEAR SUPPLY OF HERBAL MEDICNE (shelf life 10 to 15 years)

See Apothecary Herbs One Year Supply of Herbal Medicine at http://www.thepowerherbs.com or call 866-229-3663, 704-885-0277. Call for a customized year supply or to set up installment payment for this package.