Bitcoin and other Intangible Savings Vehicles
by Alfred Adask
Reuters reported in "Bitcoin plunges after marketplace indefinitely halts withdrawals," that,
"The price of the digital currency bitcoin slid to its lowest level in nearly two months on Monday after bitcoin digital marketplace Mt. Gox said a halt on withdrawals it announced on Friday would continue indefinitely after it detected "unusual activity."
"The bitcoin price varied dramatically from one exchange to another, with Tokyo-based Mt. Gox, the best known operator of a bitcoin digital marketplace, recording one of the biggest drops for the day.
"On the Mt. Gox platform the currency plunged to as low as $500 early on Monday, down more than 27 percent from Friday's final price of $692, according to the Mt. Gox website. It last traded at $595.74, off nearly 14 percent from Friday."
What's the "halt on withdrawals [can] continue indefinitely" mean?
It means that the Bitcoin market is manipulated and not a true, free-market currency.
The reason for the halt on withdrawals was said to be "unusual activity".
What do you suppose "unusual activity" means?
It might mean that the Mt. Gox exchange is heavily invested in Bitcoins, and the free market (or hackers or government) is pushing the price of Bitcoins down, so the Mt. Gox exchange is endeavoring to protect its investment in Bitcoins by refusing to allow withdrawals by people who are bailing out of Bitcoins.
If so, I'll bet that the Mt. Gox Bitcoin exchange's "halt on withdrawals" will continue until Mt. Gox has managed to secretly liquidate most of the Bitcoins it currently owns and thereby protect its own wealth. Then, when the management of Mt. Gox is safe from further Bitcoin losses, it will allow its "depositors" to withdraw and sell their Bitcoins for whatever they can get.
Lesson #1: Those who live by the digital currency, die by the digital currency.
Lesson #2: Those who invest their savings in something tangible like gold will be comparatively safe from being robbed by "hackers and bankers and governments"
(Ohh, my!).
Retirement Savings Begin at 40? . . . 50? . . . 60?
by Alfred Adask
CNBC.com published an article entitled, "40-plus? It's not too late to start saving". The thrust of the article is that, while it's best to start saving for your retirement long before you turn 40-it's still possible to accumulate meaningful savings if you start shortly after 40:
"From a retirement-planning perspective, this is the decade [from age 40 to 50] where the rubber meets the road.
"Those who started socking money away sooner are best positioned to meet their long-term goals, of course, but there's still plenty of time to shore up your savings if you've been hitting the snooze button on your 401(k) plan for the last 20 years. "
But what about those who haven't saved anything and turn 50? Or even 60? Is there any hope for them to save enough for their retirement? Or is it too late to start saving? Must they instead rely only on So-So Security?
Generally speaking, those who don't start saving for their retirement until they're over 50 are unlikely to save enough to build a "nest egg" big enough to get them through their "golden years" with anything other than So-So Security.
But that depends on how they save.
In other words, if you store your savings in a bank account in the form of cash that are subject to devaluation by inflation, your post-50 savings may not generate much of a retirement "nest egg".
However, if you saved your wealth in the form of stocks, you might do better.
In you invested your savings in U.S. bonds, which are comparatively "low" right now and therefore destined to rise, you might do even better (assuming the government doesn't repudiate its bond debts).
But what if you started saving right now in the media of gold? We can't predict the future with any accuracy, so there's never a guarantee. But we can see a couple of fundamentals and probabilities:
- As compared to paper dollars, the price of gold is up 3,700% since A.D. 1971.
- Even after the painful correction of A.D. 2012 & 2013, the price of gold has increased by an average of 13% per year over the past fourteen years.
- The price of gold fifteen years from now (and perhaps even five years from now) will be several times higher than it is today.
That means that instead of investing your savings in bank accounts, stock or bonds-which will be lucky to generate a 5% annual return on investment and thereby increase by 40% every seven years-you could invest in gold which can be reasonably expected to increase by a factor of 13% per year to a 135% increase over seven years. That's over three times the increase you might expect from conventional investments. Thus, if you start saving late, you may be able to overcome that disability by saving in gold and enjoying a much higher annual return on your investments.
If the price of gold rises by 20% per year (and it did from A.D. 2000 through most of A.D. 2011), any savings invested into gold today, might increase 250% within the next seven years-and it could conceivably go even higher and/or in a shorter period.
In truth, most of your conventional investments (bank accounts, stocks, bonds, pensions, etc.) will be lucky to generate more than 5% return on investment each year. That means that over the next seven years, $1,000 saved today in conventional investments will probably be worth no more than $1,400 seven years from now.
That same $1,000, saved in the form or gold or silver, will probably be worth $3,500 seven years from now-and maybe much more.
These kinds of returns on precious metals can't be guaranteed, but they're not only possible, they're probable. Over the next seven years, the total return on gold could be at least 250%. Over the same seven years, the total return on conventional paper and digital investments are unlikely to be more than 40%.
If you want to start saving late in life, conventional savings in the form of digital or paper vehicles are unlikely to do much for your retirement.
But, if you start saving in gold or silver, there's a good chance that a relatively small amount of savings might serve you very well in just a few years.
When it comes to savings, the issue isn't merely how much you save, but also in what investment media do you save? It's a virtual certainty, that if you save your wealth in conventional investments, you'll be lucky to receive an annual return of your investments of more than 5%. If you save in the form of precious metals, you can expect an annual return of 15% to 20%.
If 5% can't possibly add up to enough to make much difference in your retirement savings, but 20% just might make a significant difference, where should you put your savings? Conventional investments in paper debt-instruments? Or precious metals?
The answer's obvious.
You could even start saving for your retirement as late as age 60, and-if you lived frugally and saved in gold-you might still generate a decent nest egg for your "golden years".
No matter how old you are and when you started saving, if you don't have savings in the form of gold, you shouldn't be surprised if your "golden years" turn to "brass".
Suspending the Debt Ceiling's Limit
by Alfred Adask
Bill Holter (The Holter Report) recently wrote in "No Debt Limit? Why?":
"Did you scratch your head . . . just a little bit at how easy John Boehner rolled over and the debt ceiling got lifted by Congress? "Clarity" it was said, and the "uncertainty" of a debt limit was lifted so all should be OK for another year. No sequester, no cutting back ...no nothing. That's right, NO debt limit at all for a year so we (and the markets) should party like its 1999 all over again! Right?"
In fact, only one other nation in the world-it might be Ireland, I don't recall-has a "Debt Ceiling" like that imposed by U.S. law. For other nations, governmental borrowing is limited only by common sense and whatever the market will bear.
Here, in America, governmental borrowing has been limited only by the Debt Ceiling law-if even that has truly limited our government's insatiable appetite for more and more borrowing.
For example, the previous debt ceiling was $17.2 trillion, and the National Debt was $17.2 trillion. But John Williams at Shadowstats.com has calculated that the true National debt is closer to $90 trillion. If Williams is right, this implies that the actual $90 trillion National Debt exceeds the legal "Debt Ceiling" by about $73 trillion-over 400% higher than the legal limit.
If so, the official/legal "Debt Ceiling" has been routinely ignored for years. Apparently, government may be legally in debt for $17.2 trillion and illegally in debt for another $73 trillion.
I'm not even sure what that means. I assume the American people are legally liable for paying the official/legal National Debt of $17.2 trillion, but who is liable for paying $73 trillion that was borrowed in violation of the Debt Ceiling law?
The Congressional Budget Office has calculated that, including unfunded liabilities, the federal government is actually in debt for over $200 trillion. I also have no idea if "unfunded liabilities" in excess of the $17.2 trillion Debt Ceiling limit are legal or illegal-but that question may now be moot since the this week's Debt Ceiling law declared that there'll be no express borrowing limit at all for the next year.
* Hmph. As Mr. Holter wondered, Why has government chosen to suspend the Debt Ceiling?
I can imagine three possible explanations:
- The absence of a Debt Ceiling means that government anticipates an approaching economic debacle, is desperate for more currency, and has therefore removed any restriction on its ability to borrow enormous and unprecedented sums needed to survive that debacle. That's possible, but it implies that government expects to see big trouble this year.
- You might conclude, as I have, that government wants to escape the legal borrowing limits and all of the political hoopla that are attached to borrowing limits and permanently repeal the Debt Ceiling law. This year, they'll suspend the debt ceiling; next year they'll repeal it completely.
- But there's a 3rd possibility: The absence of a specific Debt Ceiling might help to suppress the growing suspicion that the government is no longer credit-worthy. Here's why that peculiar hypothesis might be possible:
For a least a decade, we've understood that the debt ceiling was imposed by Congress to limit on the federal government's seemingly insatiable borrowing. Therefore, whenever a new ceiling was declared, the Executive branch was expected to quickly borrow up to whatever maximum limit had been declared by Congress.
For example, if the debt ceiling had been $8 trillion, and Congress declared the new debt ceiling to be $10 trillion, the government might quickly borrow another $2 trillion, push up against the newest $10 trillion Debt Ceiling limit and force Congress to raise the Debt Ceiling again to, say, $13 trillion. Then government would borrow another $3 trillion, push up against the $13 trillion Debt Ceiling and force Congress to engage in another melodramatic debate and another inevitable increase in the Debt Ceiling to, say, $17.2 trillion-which is where the official National Debt was up until the recent Debt Ceiling law suspended that Debt Ceiling for a year.
Now we have no debt ceiling. When it comes to government borrowing, the sky's the limit . . . or is it?
Let's suppose that Congress raised the new Debt Ceiling from $17.2 trillion to $18 trillion. Government would quickly borrow the additional $800 billion. Congress would soon be forced to play another episode of the Debt Ceiling Follies. Who needs all that aggravation every six to twelve months?
Therefore, rather than set a new Debt Ceiling that's just a little higher than the current Debt Ceiling, why not authorize a new Debt Ceiling of, say, $20 trillion or even $25 trillion? Then, the government couldn't quickly borrow all the funds that are authorized, and Congress might avoid another episode of the Debt Ceiling Follies for several years.
So, why suspend the Debt Ceiling rather than authorize a substantial increase of $2.8 trillion in the Debt Ceiling to say, $20 trillion total?
Maybe it's because Congress fears that that government can't find any more creditors willing to lend another $2.8 trillion to the government.
In other words, what if Congress authorized a $20 (or $25) trillion Debt Ceiling, but government couldn't quickly borrow up to the limit of that new Debt Ceiling? Could government's inability to borrow up to a new Debt Ceiling limit be viewed as proof that the world regarded the U.S. as an unworthy credit risk?
If government couldn't quickly borrow up to the limit of a new Debt Ceiling, the world might suddenly see that the "emperor was nude". Once the world openly refused to lend more credit to the U.S. government, the U.S. and global financial systems might collapse.
However, if there were no express debt limit and government could only borrow, say,$1 trillion, government could deny that it's been "cut off" by the lenders and claim that it "only" borrowed $1 trillion, because that's all it wanted. It's like going to a party and not being invited to have a piece of cake. Instead of admitting that you were snubbed, you can save face by claiming that you didn't have any cake because you didn't want any.
Without a specific Debt Ceiling, government might similarly claim that if it only borrowed, say, $500 billion, it's because that's all it wanted to borrow-not because the lenders refused to lend any more.
This conjecture is certainly a long shot. Still, it might be conceivable that, in order to:
- Avoid having another congressional Debt Ceiling melodrama every 6 to 12 months if they set a low Debt Ceiling limit; and also,
- Avoid the risk of showing that no one will lend to the U.S. government if they set a huge Debt Ceiling; that,
- Congress therefore suspended the Debt Ceiling. Result? No low Debt Ceiling; no high Debt Ceiling; no Debt Ceiling.
So, what's the most likely reason for a Debt Ceiling suspension?
- Is it to allow government to engage in unlimited borrowing in order to cope with what may be a fast-approaching economic catastrophe? Maybe. If so, we can expect an economic debacle in A.D. 2014.
- Will government use this one year of Debt Ceiling suspension as a first step to repealing the Debt Ceiling laws? Almost certainly, Yes. This is the most benign explanation and does not presume an approaching catastrophe in A.D. 2014.
- Or, could it be that government has suspended the Debt Ceiling limit in order to avoid the public embarrassment of being openly denied credit by the world's lenders and thereby creating proof that the government is no longer credit-worthy? As these three explanations go, this one's the least likely.
* Still, this 3rd explanation isn't impossible since, to some degree, it's already taking place.
I.e., for the past year or more, the government has been unable to sell most of its bonds on the free market. The world's lenders have already begun to openly despise U.S. bonds. We know that's true because the Federal Reserve has been purchasing about 70% of the federal government's bonds. Purchase by the Fed has been an act of "charity" intended to help government borrowing when no one else would. The purchase of U.S. bonds by the Federal Reserve has been designed to maintain the illusion that the federal government is still credit-worthy.
But, more recently, even the Federal Reserve is trying to avoid lending to the federal government by "tapering" their monthly QE purchases of U.S. bonds.
Given these current realities, it's not so fantastic to suppose that government might be very sensitive to allowing any program that could further derogate U.S. credit. If so, it is possible that the Debt Ceiling was suspended to avoid creating proof that the U.S. government's credit rating had fallen.
* As 2014 unfolds, we'll see how much the U.S. government borrows under a suspended Debt Ceiling.
If government tries to borrow a lot and is successful in doing so, the government's credit rating will be proven to be high, and explanation #3 will be shown to be ridiculous.
If government (now authorized to engage in unlimited borrowing) is surprisingly subdued in its attempts to borrow, and is perhaps openly rebuked in its attempts to borrow, then we'll have evidence that the federal government's credit rating has fallen, and the Debt Ceiling may have been suspended in order to conceal that fact.
We shall see.
In the meantime, the facts remains that the federal government's access to credit is already shrinking and that loss does not bode well for government's future borrowing or power.
Gold was up to $1,320 Friday.
That's up $75 in the previous 30 days or an average of about $3.40/trading day.
There are about 220 trading days in the rest of this year. If gold continued to rise at an average of $3.40/day, the price of gold could be up another $750 for a year-end price of $2,075-that's an increase of 57% in the next 10.5 months. Over 5%/month.
Most conventional paper-debt investment vehicles will be happy to generate a 5% increase per year. We don't know what gold will actually do, but gold has a shot at an increase of 5% per month.