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PEACE & SECURITY REPORT
IPSI's Peace & Security Report (PSR) is a concise weekly e-publication intended to brief busy students, academics, advocates, and conflict management practitioners on pertinent global news, events, and trends. The PSR empowers us all to take a step back from our immediate deadlines each Friday and gain a greater understanding of the week's global events.


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Africa  
BURKINA FASO: Interim president reinstated
On Wednesday, civilian rule was restored during a ceremony in Ouagadougou. Interim President Michel Kafando was reinstated and the presidential guard returned to its barracks. General Gilbert Diend�r�, leader of the military junta, agreed to step down when it became clear that the Burkinabe army would not support the coup. The army surrounded Ouagadougou on Monday, threatening to remove Diend�r� from the presidential complex. Leaders from the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) facilitated the transition, but have not released details of the settlement. Diend�r�previously stated that he desired amnesty for the presidential guard and an opportunity to stand in the upcoming elections, but it is currently unclear under what terms he agreed to step down. Before the transfer of power, Diend�r� acknowledged that the coup had been a mistake and unnecessarily cost lives and resources. Comment: Gen. Diend�r� and the presidential guard seized power in a coup on September 17. They briefly detained President Kafando, Prime Minister Isaac Zida, and two other ministers, who were later released. At least ten people have been killed and more than 100 have been injured in protests in Ouagadougou. Elections previously scheduled for October 11 have been delayed until November 22. (All Africa, BBC, BBC, Reuters, Reuters)
 
NIGERIA: Boko Haram attack kills dozens
On Monday, three separate bombs killed at least 54 people in the northeastern city of Maiduguri. At least 90 people were injured. The first bomb was detonated outside a mosque, and the second two in the surrounding area. A government spokesperson claims that the attack indicates Boko Haram is resorting to increasingly desperate measures due to increased military activity in the region. The attack came the day after Boko Haram's leader denied government claims that a number of Boko Haram camps had been destroyed. Last Friday, the Nigerian military announced that it had reclaimed several villages and rescued 90 hostages. Comment: Boko Haram is an Islamic military group attempting to establish an Islamic state in Nigeria by overthrowing the government. Nigeria and its neighboring countries, are currently conducting a joint military operation to reclaim territory from Boko Haram forces. The Nigerian army has stated that it will not halt its current campaign until Boko Haram is defeated. An estimated 800 people have been killed in bombings since President Muhammadu Buhari's inauguration in May. (Al Jazeera, All Africa, BBC, Reuters, Reuters)

SOMALIA: al Shabaab reclaims Janale town
On Friday, al Shabaab attacked two Somali military bases in the Lower Shabelle region, killing at least seven Somali soldiers. The day before, al Shabaab reclaimed Janale town following a retreat by African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces. The Somali government downplayed the defeat, claiming the area is not a strategically important location in the campaign against al Shabaab. Janale is the third town recaptured this month, indicating to some analysists that al Shabaab can effectively confront AMISOM and Somali forces. Comment: Al-Shabaab is an Islamic military group aiming to overthrow the Western-backed government of Somalia and implement a new government based upon strict Islamic law. Al Shabaab has faced increasing pressure from AMISOM and Somali government forces, but still controls large regions in southern and central Somalia. Janale town was the site of a major al Shabaab attack earlier this month, where 12 Ugandan soldiers were killed. (The East African, Reuters, Reuters)

Researched/Written by Colin Treverton
Americas 
BOLIVIA: Bill to change presidential term limits
A Bolivian legislative commission approved a bill on Tuesday to amend the constitution's presidential terms limits. President Morales' party holds a supermajority of more than two-thirds so legislative approval is guaranteed. A referendum must also be held to determine if President Morales will be allowed to run in the 2019 presidential election for a third term. It is uncertain whether the changes would allow Morales to run for only one additional term, or if it would eliminate presidential term limits altogether. Comment: Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous president, is very popular with a majority of the electorate, winning a landslide election last year for his third term in office. According to analysts, it is very unlikely that the amendment will not pass. His opponents warn that this attempt to change the constitution is an adaptation to the law to Morales' personal political ambitions. (teleSUR, Wall Street Journal, El Pa�s)
 
COLOMBIA: Breakthrough in Colombian peace talks
This Wednesday, President Santos and Timochenko, the leader of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), announced they had overcome the last major barrier to a peace deal: justice and reparations for the victims of the 50-year long conflict. The two parties agreed to create special peace tribunals to try conflict related crimes committed by FARC members, government agents, and non-combatants. People who confess their actions, and pledge to not take up arms again will face a "restriction of freedom" of five to eight years and community service. Those who are convicted without having confessed, or lied, will face up to 20 years in prison. Purely political crimes, such as FARC membership and rebellion, are open to pardons. President Santos also reported that FARC promised to demobilize within 60 days of a final agreement, to be signed by March 2016, though plans for demobilization and decommissioning weapons has not yet been decided upon. The agreement will be put to a referendum, and will have to be passed by Congress. Comment: Peace talks between the Colombian government and FARC have been ongoing for the past three years in Havana, Cuba. Though some such as former president Uribe have criticized the deal for being too soft on FARC rebels, according to analysts this transitional justice plan is the best chance Colombia has to end its fifty-year conflict. According to CERAC, a Bogota-based think tank, FARC-related violence is currently at the lowest levels in the history of the conflict, with compliance of FARC's unilateral ceasefire. (AP, El Tiempo, International New York Times)
 
GUYANA/VENEZUELA: Tensions rise on border
On Tuesday, representatives from Guyana announced that a build-up of Venezuelan military on the border between the two countries has increased during the past week, a move that Guyana's President Granger has called a "persistence of aggressive behavior, hostile behavior towards Guyana." In response to the accusation, Venezuelan Defense Minister Padrino admitted to the troop presence, but asserted that these are military exercises. Late on Wednesday, Guyana reported that it had deployed additional troops and equipment to its border, though Minister of Foreign Affairs Carl Greenidge announced that the government would continue to pursue legal means to settle the border dispute. Comment: Guyana and Venezuela have a history of tension due to a centuries-old territorial dispute, which spiked this summer after ExxonMobil Corp. discovered an oil and natural gas well off the coast of the disputed territory earlier this year. Maduro's critics accuse him of heightening the Guyanese border dispute to distract Venezuelans from high inflation rates and a recession, and create a sense of national unity before December's upcoming elections. The same accusations were levied against Maduro concerning Venezuela's border dispute with Colombia, which began to de-escalate on Monday when Presidents Santos and Maduro agreed to normalize relations in the first of their peace talks. (Jamaica Observer, Reuters, Latin Times)

Researched/Written by 
East Asia & Pacific 
CHINA: 19,000 suspected triad members arrested
This week, China announced the end of a three-month crackdown on organized crime, an operation codenamed Thunderbolt 15. Through a series of raids in Macau, Hong Kong, and Guangdong province, more than 19,000 people were arrested for alleged activities relating to triads, a series of organized crime syndicates that often operate in China. Most suspects were arrested under the suspicion of dealing drugs, gambling, illegal lending, and facilitating prostitution. More than 11,000 arrests occurred in Guangdong, 3,977 in Macau, and 4,343 in Hong Kong. The police confiscated USD 13 million in cash, illegal drugs, weapons, pirated DVDs, and contraband cigarettes while searching more than 7,500 properties. Authorities also detained more than 31,000 people under the suspicion of being drug addicts. China conducts operations against the triad frequently, but Thunderbolt 15 is perhaps its most ambitious to date. Comment: Triads are international organized-crime groups that operate around the world, but are most active in Hong Kong, Macau, and Thailand. The current crackdown comes as triads continue to expand their activities into mainland China. The operation was canceled last year due to the Occupy protests in Hong Kong, leading to a more robust operation this year. (BBC Business Insider South China Morning Post)
 
JAPAN: Lawmakers ease pacifist role of Japanese military
Japan's parliament approved a security bill that would give the military latitude to use force overseas in the event that its own security or that of its allies is severely threatened. The legislation reinterprets Article 9 of Japan's post WWII Constitution that reads: "the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes." Although the bill does not change Article 9's language - which would require a constitutional amendment - it does reinterpret the language to make "collective self-defense" permissible. The controversy over this bill has sparked widespread protests and even led to a scuffle between lawmakers in parliament itself. Comment: Although this bill gives the military the ability to intervene if its allies are attacked, many limitations still remain in place. Nonetheless, both the Chinese and South Korean foreign ministries have issued statements urging Japan to learn from history and remain dedicated to the spirit of peace. (CNN The Atlantic Washington Post)
 
MALAYSIA/THAILAND: Malaysian police arrest eight people in connection to Bangkok bombing
Malaysian police announced Wednesday that they have arrested another six people, in addition to the two arrested Monday, on suspicion of aiding the bombers who killed 20 people at a Hindu shrine in Bangkok in August. The six are not directly linked to the bombing, but to a human-trafficking gang, and are accused of having helped one of the bombers escape from Thailand. Four of the arrested persons are Malaysian, and four are foreign nationals thought to be minority Uighur Muslims from far-western China. Comment: Thousands of Uighurs have fled in the past few years, alleging persecution. The connection could be significant, as Thailand forcibly repatriated 109 Uighurs back to China in July at Beijing's request. A linked political motive between the forced repatriation and the bombing has been dismissed by Thai police, who suggest the reason for the attack was instead a response from the human trafficking gang to recent police crackdowns on their activity. (Bangkok Post NewsAsia Reuters)

Researched/Written by Colin Treverton
Europe & Central Asia
CROATIA/SERBIA: Economic security weakens as Croatia closes its borders
An economic trade dispute between Serbia and Croatia intensified Thursdayafter the closure last week of Croatian borders this past week. In an effort to enforce strict security measures along theborders, Croatian Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic refused to open theborders to the tens of thousands of migrants seeking refuge in Europe.Serbia responded to the border closures by placing a ban on all Croatian imported goods, costing both nations "as much as EUR one million a day" in economic deficits. Comment: Thousands of migrant refugees have traveled to the borders of eastern European countriesbut have been denied safe access into countries such as Hungary andCroatia. Serbian Interior Minister Nebojsa Stefanovic stated that theSerbian government needed to take protective measures against traderelations with Croatia, because of the strained resources of acceptingmigrant refugees that Serbia cannot handle on its own. (Reuters, US News, NY Times)

GREECE: Tsipras wins election
On Sunday's elections, Alexis Tsipras was re-elected prime minister of Greece. The most critical challenge for Greece will be to address the struggling economy in light of its third international bailout package, which placed Greece EUR 86 billion more in debt. Prime Minister Tsipras has stated to political officials that he will focus on critical economic and social conditions in Greece, particularly with the thousands of migrants seeking refuge and the need to establish job production that will target the rise in unemployment and secure debt relief. Comment: Tsipras was first elected as Prime Minister of Greece in January 2015, but the recent bailout crisis inGreece forced a rebellion in the parliament, which resulted in hisresignation later in August. Analysts say the current economicinstability in Greece could account for the victory for Tsipras,leaving voters to decide on a familiar political leader instead ofrelying on "political uncertainty" with the economic bailout. (Al Jazeera, Reuters, CNN, NY Times)

REGIONAL: Migrant crisis calls for a united Europe
On Wednesday, the European Council held an emergency meeting to discuss the financial support and obstacles that European countries must address in order to find a "comprehensive solution of the refugee problem." The meeting between European leaders resulted in the temporary solution, to provide financial aid in the amount of EUR one billion to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and the World Food Program. The agreement between EU leaders will also result in greater cooperation to strengthen border controls and security forces, and to establish reasonable mandatory quotas that each country must receive of migrant displaced persons. Comment: The European governments have struggled to set a united mandate on how to managethe increasing migrant population, who seek refuge from conflict areassuch as Syria, Libya, and Afghanistan. The conflict situation in theMiddle East appears to have no immediate resolution in sight, whichcreates the potential for millions more displaced persons to flee fromtheir home countries and seek refuge in western European countries. (The Guardian, CNN, NY Times, BBC)

 Researched/Written by Jessica Gaytan
Middle East & North Africa 
IRAN: IAEA given samples taken from Parchin military site
On September 21 Yukiya Amano, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said that Iran handed over environmental samples from the Parchin military site, east of Tehran. Traditionally the Parchin military site has been dedicated to the research, development, and production of ammunition, rockets, and explosives. According to Western intelligence agencies, it was allegedly the site where Iran previously carried out work related to the development of nuclear weapons. Amano and other IAEA officials were given a tour of the Parchin site and were able to inspect a building that the agency had previously only observed via satellite imagery. At a recent press conference in Vienna, Amano said "inside the building, we saw indications of recent renovation work. There was no equipment in the building". Comment: Under the July 14 nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers (P5 +1) the IAEA must verify that Tehran's nuclear activities have no military aims. The nuclear deal cannot go ahead until the accusations of a weaponized military program are cleared or resolved. (BBC, Times Live, Reuters)
 
SAUDI ARABIA: 700 die in Mecca during pilgrimage
On Thursday morning, during the annual pilgrimage known as the Hajj, a crowd surge left over 700 people dead and at least 863 injured. The incident occurred in Mina, about 2 miles outside of the holy city of Mecca, where pilgrims throw pebbles at 3 stone walls to symbolize "stoning the devil". According to one source, the surge occurred at about 9 am where two massive lines of pilgrims converged and caused a large number of people to fall. In response to the crisis 220 ambulances and 4,000 emergency workers were sent to help the wounded. Comment: Despite added security measures this incident is the deadliest to occur during Hajj in the past 25 years. It comes only two weeks after a crane fell near the Grand Mosque killing 107 people and injuring 238 others. King Salman Abdulaziz al Saud had ordered a review of the Hajj plans but faces criticism from Iran's Supreme Leader who has urged Saudi Arabia to take responsibility and has stated that "mismanagement and improper actions have caused this catastrophe." (BBC, CNN, ReutersAl Jazeera)
 
YEMEN: Houthi rebels free six foreign hostages
On Sunday Houthi rebels in Yemen released six hostages: two Americans, two Saudis and a Briton. The hostages were flown to neighboring Oman; one American hostage still remains in Houthi custody. According to one source the three westerners had been held on charges of improper visas since the beginning of the Saudi-led campaign began in March. Their release has come on the heels of talks between Houthi rebels and the UN envoy to Yemen. UN-sponsored talks are supposed to focus on finding a strategy for implementing a UN resolution for Houthi's to withdraw from the areas they have seized and end nearly six months of fighting in the country. Comment: Although both Houthi and government leaders claim that a political solution can be found, each side has their reservations. The leader of the Houthi resistance said that they were open to political solutions but would resist what he called Saudi-led aggression. President Hadi said he wouldn't agree to attend the talks with the Houthi rebels unless they comply with the resolution and withdraw from the capitol. (BBC, CNN, Al Jazeera)
 
REGIONAL: Report reveals defectors' disillusionment with Islamic State
A report released Monday by the International Center for the Study of Radicalization (ICSR) at Kings College in London reveals the stories of 58 known self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) defectors and their reasons for leaving. According to the report some defectors disapproved of IS's hostility toward other Sunni groups and Sunni rebels; others left because of the group's brutality and killing of innocent civilians. Still others left for reasons of corruption, inequality, and racism. In addition to reporting the individual stories of IS defectors, the ICSR says that governments need to remove legal "disincentives" to those wishing to speak publicly about their defection from IS; currently defectors who do speak out face the possibility of criminal charges for their involvement with the organization. Comment: Analysts note that these narratives highlight the hypocrisies between the claims of IS and the realities of life under IS rule, and that their examples may encourage others to defect as well, while their credibility may prevent individuals from joining in the future. (CNN, NYT, The Guardian)

Researched/Written by Josh Gazdik
South Asia
BANGLADESH: Militant groups threatens international bloggers
On Wednesday Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) issued a hit list of foreign-based bloggers to be killed if its demands are not met. ABT is calling for the bloggers' Bangladeshi citizenship to be revoked, saying the bloggers are "atheists and apostates" and enemies of Muslims and Islamic education. The 20-person list includes bloggers living in the UK, Germany, the U.S. Canada, and Sweden. Most are Bangladeshi nationals or have dual citizenship, while some are citizens of Western countries. ABT is responsible for the death of several bloggers who had criticized extremist religious doctrine. These past attacks were carried out in Bangladesh but ABT's capability to carry out attacks overseas is unknown. Comment: Over 150 prominent international authors have cosigned a letter calling for the Bangladesh government to prevent future attacks on bloggers. (The Guardian, The Hindu, Gulf Times)
 
INDIA: Dengue fever outbreak reaches record level
This past week the number of patients in Delhi infected with dengue fever has surpassed 1,800 with estimates as high as 2,400. It has been reported that between four and 13 people have died due to the infection. Officials suggest the situation will only grow worse if the humidity continues. The Delhi state government has come under pressure due to the death of a young boy who was allegedly refused medical treatment. In response to the epidemic the Indian government has ordered 1,000 extra hospital beds for the treatment of dengue patients. Comment: A two-year-old and a six-year-old also died due to the alleged denial of treatment by state hospitals. (Al Jazeera, Indian Express,  BBC)
 
NEPAL: Protests continue after passage of constitution
Protests continue in response to the passage of the new constitution. Sources report that rubber bullets, blanks, and possibly live rounds were used against the crowds with four protestors shot by Nepali police on Monday. The deputy police spokesperson said a policeman was also injured by protestors throwing stones. On Thursday 400 people clashed with police in Birgunj, a town on the Nepali-Indian border. Protestors are ethnic minorities from Southern Nepal who claim that their traditional homeland has been fragmented and their power diluted by the federal districts drawn by the new constitution. The protests have stopped Indian suppliers from crossing the border into Nepal and sparked concerns of food and goods shortages.  Comment: India has pressured Nepal to be more inclusive towards its minorities which live on the border of India and Nepal. The three major political parties have chosen a representative to speak with the protestors but the ethnic party representatives are yet to respond. (ReutersAPIBN)

Researched/Written by Michael Gallagher
September 25, 2015
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IPSI President Cameron Chisholm and Senior Advisor Kevin Melton will speak at the Rotary World Peace Conference 2016 in January.  Come meet us! 


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