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PEACE & SECURITY REPORT
IPSI's Peace & Security Report (PSR) is a concise weekly e-publication intended to brief busy students, academics, advocates, and conflict management practitioners on pertinent global news, events, and trends. The PSR empowers us all to take a step back from our immediate deadlines each Friday and gain a greater understanding of the week's global events.

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Featured Article
2015 Global Forecast
Center for Strategic & International Studies

Maintaining international security and pursuing American interests is more difficult now than perhaps at any time in history. The security environment that the United States faces is more complex, dynamic, and difficult to predict. At the same time, no domestic consensus exists on the purposes of American power and how best to pursue them. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) will look ahead in this annual volume at the crises and opportunities that will likely arise in 2015, how best to deal with them, and what lasting effects they might leave for the next American administration and its allies around the world. 


 

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Africa  

MALI: Second confirmed case of Ebola

On Tuesday, a 25 year old nurse died of Ebola in Bamako, after treating an imam from Guinea. This marks the second Ebola-related death in Mali, and has caused the 31 individuals within the clinic to be quarantined. In addition, all those that came in contact with both the nurse and the imam were also quarantined, marking a total of approximately 70 people. Comment: The government of Mali asserts that this second case is in no way related to the first, and that all of those involved in that first case are set to be released on Tuesday from their 21 day observation period. To date, there have been around 5,160 deaths from the virus, and about 14,098 cases of infection. (Al Jazeera, BBC, The Guardian)

 

NIGERIA: Increasing bombings in Northeastern Nigeria

A suicide bomber disguised in a student uniform killed at least 48 people and injured an additional 79 at Yobe state's Government Comprehensive Senior Science Secondary School in Potiskum on Monday morning. A second bomb carried by a female bomber detonated two days later at a college in Kontagora town, injuring at least seven people. These events have once again been attributed to extremist group Boko Haram. Comment: The group, whose name translates into "Western education is sinful", has a history of attacking schools, particularly in the Yobe state; and they have increased their attacks in the area in the past couple of weeks, following government claims of ongoing negotiations with the group. This marks the second bombing in Yobe and the third in northern Nigeria this month alone, with a total of approximately 150 injured. (All Africa, Al Jazeera, BBC, BBC, Reuters)

 

SOUTH SUDAN: Relapse shortly after agreement signature

Clashes between government and rebel forces have taken place in Upper Nile, Jonglei, and Unity states since the signature of their newest ceasefire agreement on Saturday. These confrontations are said to be a result of government violations of the aforementioned ceasefire deal. The Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has granted the two sides 15 days to revisit the agreement, asserting its intentions to severely punish either side if it breaches the contract. Comment: The fighting, which began in December 2013, has displaced over 1.5 million people, and 7 million more are at an increased risk of famine. Should further negotiations fail, IGAD held that it would, "without further reference to the warring parties, take necessary measures to directly intervene in South Sudan to protect life and restore peace and stability." (Al Jazeera, BBC, Reuters)

             

Researched/Written by Emmanuella Bonga

Americas 

COLOMBIA: Indigenous court sentences seven FARC rebels

The Nasa indigenous group from Colombia's western Cauca department sentenced seven Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) members for the killing of two Nasa men. The men, part of the indigenous guard forces, were taking down a FARC propaganda billboard when they were shot and killed by FARC rebels. FARC has contested this account, stating that the Nasa guards attacked FARC members before the shootings, after which the rebels handed themselves in voluntarily. The seven FARC rebels were tried and sentenced in an indigenous court, with five receiving 40 to 50 years in jail, and two receiving 20 lashes. Comment: Colombian law allows for indigenous groups to have jurisdiction as long as the incidents occur within indigenous territory and do not conflict with Colombian law. The UN representative in Colombia, Fabrizio Hochschild spoke against the indigenous court procedure and sentencing, stating that due process was not followed, and human rights must be respected regardless of the nature of the crime. The five FARC members will serve out their sentences in the Cauca department prison. FARC has publicly apologized for the killing. (El TiempoColombia ReportsBBC)


 

GUYANA: Parliament suspended over no-confidence vote

President Donald Ramotar announced a six-month suspension of Guyana's national parliament on Monday, stating it was in the best interests of the nation. President Ramotar accused the opposition of seeking to disrupt government rather than working with the administration to pass necessary legislation. The suspension is a response to the legislature's debate in September over a vote of no confidence in the president, which resulted in a two month recess. Monday was supposed to be the legislature's first day back in session. The president believes the opposition members of the parliament have held the confidence vote as their main objective since taking the majority control. Opposition members of the parliament decried the move, stating that the president was undermining democracy and that the administration is a renegade government.  Comment: President Ramotar used a legal procedure that allows him to legitimately suspend the parliament. If a no confidence vote had passed, early elections would be called for and a new president elected. (TeleSURCaribbean Press ReleaseBBC)


 

MEXICO: Gang admits to killing of missing students

Last Friday, Mexican Attorney General Jesus Murillo announced that suspected gang members confessed to killing 43 students who were missing for six weeks. Three gang members confessed, claiming local police cooperated in the murders by handing the students over to the gang after the police stopped and detained them in the city of Iguala. Argentine forensic scientists are working to confirm the students identities' by matching DNA to the charred remains of human bodies that were found in bags near the river where the students were kidnapped. Thousands of Mexicans continued protests this week in response to the Attorney General's revelations. On Tuesday, protesters blocked Acapulco Airport and 20 police were reportedly injured in the clash. On Wednesday protesters set fire to the Guerrero governing party's offices where two police officers and one journalist were injured. Comment: Mexican officials accuse the mayor of Iguala of ordering the disappearance to prevent the students from disrupting an upcoming speech by his wife. Since the students disappeared the governor of the Guerrero state has resigned, and protesters are now calling for President Pe�a Nieto to leave office.. Families and relatives of the missing students have been highly critical of the investigation, stating they are hesitant to believe police statements until the identities are fully confirmed. (El UniversalLa JornadaLa Cronica de Hoy)

 

Researched/Written by Heaven Fekadu
East Asia & Pacific 

CHINA: U.S. and China announce historic climate change agreement

After several days of sideline negotiations at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, President Obama and President Xi announced on Wednesday a plan to cut carbon emissions. The joint announcement is the culmination of months of negotiations between the two countries on climate change issues. Under the new deal, China has agreed to cap greenhouse gas emissions, with emissions levels peaking in 2030 or earlier. President Xi also committed to "increase the non-fossil fuel share of all energy to around 20 percent by 2030." The United States will make reductions of 26 - 28 percent of emissions by 2025, with percentages based on carbon emissions data from 2005. The two countries also agreed to extend funding for the US-China Clean Energy Research Center for an additional five years. Comment: This is the first time China has committed to a cap on carbon emissions. Both U.S. and Chinese officials have expressed hope that the agreement will spur efforts to create a global climate change agreement by 2015. (The New York Times, Reuters, Xinhua)

 

CHINA/JAPAN: Prime Minister Abe and President Xi meet for first summit in 2 years

On Tuesday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Chinese President Xi Jingping met on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit for the first high level China-Japan talks in over two years. Despite ongoing tensions, the two nations released a statement of agreement on historical and territorial issues on Friday, smoothing the way for this week's summit meeting. Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi and Japanese national security advisor Shotaro Yachi met in Beijing to discuss mutual security concerns, emerging with agreements to resume diplomatic and military dialogues and acknowledge differing views on territorial claims in the South China Sea. Abe and Xi appeared tense during their initial greeting, leading to widespread speculation about hostility between the two leaders. However, experts say that Xi's cold approach was a calculated gesture to his domestic audience, many of whom still harbor anti-Japanese sentiments. Comments by Prime Minister Abe after the meeting suggest that, away from the cameras, the leaders made important steps towards repairing frayed relations between China and Japan. Comment: Japan has historically denied the existence of a territorial conflict over the Senkaku Islands, located the in South China Sea. While last week's statement of agreement does not change Tokyo's position, it recognizes a differing point of view in China. (The Japan News, The Japan Times, The Wall Street Journal)


NORTH KOREA: American detainees released during U.S. envoy visit

On Saturday, North Korea (DPRK) released two American detainees during a visit to the North by U.S. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper. Kenneth Bae was arrested in late 2012 for crimes against the North Korean state, while Todd Miller was convicted in April on charges of espionage. According to experts, North Korea likely released the detainees to ease international pressure stemming from the nation's record of human rights violations. The UN is expected to adopt a resolution in mid-December calling for a referral of North Korea to the International Criminal Court (ICC) for human rights abuses. North Korea has lobbied hard to get the ICC reference dropped from the resolution, and some sources suggest that the North may have demanded U.S. cooperation in exchange for the detainee release.  However, in statements Monday, President Obama made it clear that the U.S. stance on North Korean nuclear and human rights issues remains unchanged. Comment: In the past few weeks, North Korea has released all three of the American citizens it held as detainees. In light of this progress, South Korean officials have urged the DPRK to release the South Korean missionary currently held on anti-state charges. (Korea Herald, Reuters, Yonhap News)

 

Researched/Written by Carolyn Posner
Europe & Central Asia

ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN: Armenian military helicopter shot down near Nagorno-Karabakh

On Wednesday, Azerbaijani military forces shot down an Armenian Mi-24 helicopter near the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.  All three crew members were killed when the helicopter was shot down.  Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry claimed in a statement that two Armenian military helicopters were carrying out combat maneuvers and were preparing to fire on Azerbaijani positions in the region when one of them was shot down.  The Armenian Defense Ministry denied the allegations and called the incident an "unprecedented provocation" by Azerbaijan while the Nagorno-Karabakh self-defense force, composed of ethnic-Armenian separatists, claimed that the helicopter was on a training mission.  Armenian military forces have been carrying out drills over the past week in the area. The incident marks the first time that a military aircraft has been shot down since the ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan was signed nearly 20 years ago. Following the incident, Baku declared a no-fly zone over Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenian separatist-controlled regions. However the separatist government in Nagorno-Karabakh dismissed the warning and Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian made a surprise visit to the region in a show of support. Comment: The Nagorno-Karabakh enclave in Azerbaijan was seized by Armenian-backed separatists in 1988.  A ceasefire was signed in 1994, giving the Armenian separatists control over Nagorno-Karabakh and several neighboring districts within Azerbaijan. There have been incidents of violence around the breakaway state since the ceasefire; however the past few months have seen the worst violence to date. (Aljazeera, RFERL, RFERL, BBC)

 

BELGIUM: Mass protest over government austerity measures

Last Thursday, protesters in Belgium clashed with police over recent government austerity measures in one of the largest post-war labor demonstrations.  Police estimate that approximately 100,000 individuals took part in the protests while unions claimed that more than 130,000 took part.  The march was the first in a series of planned demonstrations over the next month, with a number of unions planning strikes every Monday up until December 15 when a national strike is planned to take effect.  The protests come after Belgium's center-right government announced a number of austerity measures, including plans to raise the retirement age and cut health and social security budgets.  Officials report that the rally was initially peaceful, but turned violent after the march as demonstrators began overturning cars, setting vehicles on fire, and throwing objects at riot police gathered in the area.  Riot police reportedly used water cannons and pepper spray on the crowd to quell the violence. Comment: There have been a large number of mass protests in other European countries over austerity measures in the past few years. Spain, Italy, and Greece all saw widespread demonstrations after their respective governments announced new budgets and cuts to social services. The last mass demonstration witnessed in Belgium over austerity measures occurred in February 2013.  Approximately 40,000 people took part in those protests. (Aljazeera, Reuters, ABC)

 

SPAIN: Unofficial independence referendum held in Catalonia

In an unofficial referendum, the inhabitants of Spain's Catalonia region on Monday voted in favor of independence from Spain.  Voting results indicate that over 2 million people voted in the referendum, with approximately 1.6 million favoring independence, over 80 percent of all votes. Despite the overwhelming support for independence, the informal referendum was not recognized or sanctioned by the Spanish government, and the country's Constitution Court is reviewing the central government's claim that the referendum was unconstitutional. Spanish prosecutors are currently investigating to see if the referendum violated Spanish law.  In a recent statement, Justice Minister Rafael Catala referred to the referendum as a "day of political propaganda organized by pro-independence forces and devoid of any kind of democratic validity." Despite the central government's opposition, the symbolic referendum is widely viewed by many Catalonians as an important step towards independence from Spain. Comment:  The Catalonia region has a population of approximately 7.5 million and comprises a fifth of Spain's economy. This unofficial independence referendum comes in the wake of the Scottish Independence referendum that took place in September. In that vote, voters supported remaining in the U.K. in a ten point margin over independence. (France24, Aljazeera, The Guardian)

 

UKRAINE: New OSCE report claims increase in military movements and support in Eastern Ukraine

On Sunday, a report by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) stated that convoys carrying large amounts of heavy weapons, tanks and soldiers were witnessed in the separatist held areas of eastern Ukraine, despite the ceasefire that has been in place since September.  NATO's commander, U.S. General Phillip Breedlove, stated that the ceasefire was one in "name only", and that the number of encounters between NATO and Russian troops on air, land, and sea had risen sharply.  Breedlove also claimed that approximately eight battalions of Russian forces are currently gathered on Ukraine's border.  OSCE observers on the ground in Ukraine reported witnessing an unidentified armored column entering separatist-held territory carrying troops bearing no insignia.  Heavy shelling also occurred in the Donetsk region on Sunday; however no casualties were reported. Comment: Ukraine's representative to the OSCE in an interview to Austrian newspaper Die Presse, stated that since the Minsk Agreement, there have been "more than 2,400 breaches of the ceasefire by militant groups.  More than 100 Ukrainian soldiers and dozens of civilians have been killed." The Russian foreign ministry rejected these claims, stating that the Ukrainian military committed numerous violations of the Ceasefire since it began in September. (BBC, The Moscow Times, RFERL)

 

Researched/Written by Matthew Brainovich

Middle East & North Africa 

IRAQ: Government military forces fight for largest oil refinery

On Sunday, Iraqi military forces entered the city of Baiji in northern Iraq in an attempt to break a months-long Islamic State (IS) siege of the Iraq's largest oil refinery. Though IS forces seized the city in June during their rapid advance through Iraq, they have been unable to take the refinery thus far. A small detachment of government forces inside the refinery have held them off; however, production at the refinery has halted in the interim. An Iraqi colonel reported that the Iraqi armed forces had taken about 50% of the city and had moved within 6km of the refinery. Comment:  Iraqi oil industry officials believe the oil refinery is strategically important to IS, who is currently making multi-million dollar profits from the illegal trade of oil. Iraq would also consider this a significant victory for morale as Baiji was one of the first Iraqi cities taken by IS. (Al Jazeera, BBC, Reuters)


 

ISRAEL/PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES: Series of stabbings adds to mounting tension

Two separate stabbing incidents in Tel Aviv and the West Bank on Monday resulted in the deaths of an Israeli soldier and an Israeli woman, respectively. In the first stabbing in Tel Aviv police arrested a Palestinian from the West Bank, while security forces shot a Palestinian man in response to the second after he injured two others in addition to the woman killed. Following these attacks a Palestinian man wielding a homemade gun was shot by Israeli soldiers in a refugee camp on Tuesday. That same night a synagogue was firebombed in Shefa 'Amr and a mosque was set on fire near Ramallah. These events all add to growing tension in the region that had been relatively calm since an August ceasefire. Comment: While direct motivations for these acts of aggression have not been named, analysts believe that they can be attributed to the ongoing dispute over access to the Holy Mount/Haram al-Shariffor worship, as well as Israeli plans to expand settlements in East Jerusalem. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has accused Israel of inciting religious war, while Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu claimed that Palestinians are adding to the tension and urged Israelis avoid incitement. (The Jerusalem Post, Al Jazeera,Reuters, BBC, The Guardian)


 

YEMEN: Political unrest follows UN sanctions

A Friday decision by the United Nations Security Council called for sanctions, including asset freezes and travel bans, on two prominent Houthi rebels and former President Saleh, who fell from power in 2012. The sanctions were initiated for attempts to destabilize the current government.  On Saturday, in response to the UN, the Houthi rebels rejected current President Hadi's proposed power-sharing government called for by a UN-brokered peace deal. Additionally on Saturday, Hadi's own political party, the General People's Congress (GPC), which holds the majority in the Yemeni parliament, removed Hadi as their leader and similarly rejected his proposed government. Comment: Analysts believe that the GPC's response to the UN indicates that their loyalty still lies with former President Saleh. Without President Hadi's main base of power, support from Yemen's most popular political party, experts say a vote of no-confidence could be expected in the near future. Meanwhile, violent clashes between Shia Houthi rebels and both state police forces and al-Qaeda backed tribesmen in the South. (Al Jazeera, Reuters, The Guardian)

 

Researched/Written by Colleen Corcoran

South Asia

AFGHANISTAN: Opium production at record highs

The UN Office on Drugs and Crime reported on Wednesday that opium production in Afghanistan hit a record high this year, 17 percent more than 2013. The increase represents over 6,400 tons of opium, which accounts for 90 percent of the world's heroin supply. Comment: Most producers, poor farmers who are reported to have no alternative to growing poppy to feed their families, are located in the southern Helmand province where NATO troops began to withdraw in October. The UN report says the wholesale price of opium fell due to an increase in supply, despite the billions of USD dollars spent on counter-narcotics in Afghanistan over the last decade. Analysts say the economic paralysis from the disputed presidential election and ongoing fighting between the Taliban and Afghan forces have prevented focus on counter-narcotic efforts. Most poppy crop farmers work in provinces with a strong Taliban presence. (Associated Press, BBC, NPR)


INDIA: Twelve women die after mass sterilization

On Tuesday, twelve women died and dozens of others became sick after laparoscopic surgery at a government organized sterilization center in Chhattisgarh. The national program, which incentivizes women around INR 600 (USD 10) as compensation, is part of the country's campaign to curb population growth. Dr. R. K. Gupta performed 83 procedures with unsterilized surgical instruments in six hours, leaving only a few minutes for each procedure. Comment: Prime Minister Indira Gandhi led a campaign in the 1970s that sterilized six million women, sparking violent protests. According to the UN, India performed 37% of the world's female sterilizations in 2011. Human Rights Watch issued a report in 2012 recommending the set-up of an independent redress system to report coercion and poor quality services at sterilization centers. (AFP, Indian Express, NYT)


PAKISTAN: Truck collision kills 56 in southern Pakistan

A passenger bus and goods truck collision in the southern city of Khairpur killed 56 people, including 35 women, and children, and injured others on Tuesday after heavy fog conditions in the area. Comment: Local sources point to Pakistan's poor road infrastructure, badly maintained vehicles, and reckless driving as causes for the country's history of fatal traffic accidents. Additionally, the emergency services in rural areas can be slow and their recovery equipment is basic, reducing injured passengers' chances of survival.The mountainous area of the north had three crashes in March that killed 46 people. (Al Jazeera, BBC, The Guardian)

 

Researched/Written by Alexa Lipke

November 14, 2014
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In This Issue
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Africa
Americas
East Asia & Pacific
Europe & Central Asia
Middle East & North Africa
South Asia

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