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PEACE & SECURITY REPORT
IPSI's Peace & Security Report (PSR) is a concise weekly e-publication intended to brief busy students, academics, advocates, and practitioners in the conflict management community on pertinent global news, events, and trends. The PSR empowers us all to take a step back from our immediate deadlines each Friday and gain a greater understanding of the week's global events.

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Africa  

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC: Warnings of humanitarian crises as violence continues

Last Friday, Amnesty International (AI) raised concern about the humanitarian situation in CAR, releasing satellite photos of damage caused by fighting, such as the destruction of 485 homes. On the same day, the UN released a joint study with the CAR government and NGOs stating that 1.1 million people are at risk of food shortages. The estimated number of people at risk of hunger could go higher as the conflict hurts the economy and bad harvests fail to provide enough food. Comment: Two weeks earlier, the UN special adviser on the prevention of genocide, Adama Dieng, stated that if action is not taken soon he "will not exclude the possibility of a genocide" and supported the measure to add UN troops to bolster the current AU mission.  Due to the conflict, an estimated 30,000 people are internally displaced. The World Food Programme (WFP) has provided food assistance to about 250,000 people, but states that it will require USD 20 million to continue providing food to CAR until April 2014. (AI, AFP, UN WFP)

 

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO: Government refuses to sign peace accord, instead calls for "declaration"

On Monday evening, the DRC government did not sign the peace accord agreed upon by the parties on November 4, stating that the documents should be titled a "declaration," not an "accord."  Envoys from the UN, EU, AU and the U.S. were present to witness the signing of the deal and resolved to find a political deal with M23, as well as to end conflicts with other armed groups in the region. Comment: The DRC government blames the Ugandan government's support of the rebels as a reason the peace deal was not finalized. Spokesperson for the DRC Lamber Mende stated "No country in history has signed an agreement with a movement that has declared its own dissolution." Uganda disputes the accusation, stating that during the 10 months of negotiation, the DRC government did not make complaints. Currently, Uganda is holding M23's military chief, Sultani Makenga and about 1,500 rebel fighters. (Aljazeera, SABC, Congo Planet, VOA)

 

NIGERIA: Boko Haram listed as terrorist organization by United States

On Wednesday, the State Department labeled Boko Haram and Ansaru as terrorist organizations under federal law, meaning that U.S. business and financial trade with the groups is banned. The State Department emphasized that the designation is only one strategy among others to combat the groups, such as political and development efforts, law enforcement, and military engagement.  Comment: Boko Haram is an Islamist group fighting for the establishment of an Islamic state in Northern Nigeria. Ansaru is a splinter group of Boko Haram that focuses its attacks on Nigerian military and Westerners. Dan Mou, Director of Foreign Affairs Abuja, stated that the designation of Boko Haram and Ansura as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs) will affect innocent Nigerians who will now face tighter visa laws and security checks; however, Adefuye, Nigeria's Ambassador to the U.S., stated that the designation will not affect bilateral relations, and Nigerian citizens will not face "unnecessary harassment" at borders. (Vanguard, AP, VOA)

 

SOMALIA: Cyclone causes severe damage and loss of life

Puntland declared a state of emergency after a cyclone caused severe damage and floods on Sunday; the death toll on Thursday was 140 and could rise to 300, while hundreds more remain missing. Locations known for pirate activity, such as the port of Eyl, comprise the worst affected areas.  Damage to communication lines and roads slowed aid deliveries.   Comment: Puntland, the northeastern tip of the Horn of Africa, has its own government and its relation to Somalia is strained due to disputes over power and foreign aid.  Authorities estimate that up to 30,000 people are in need of food, shelter, and medical attention. Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud pledged USD one million dollars to help the region rebuild. (Aljazeera, AP, Reuters)

  

Researched/Written by Melissa Newcomb

Americas

ARGENTINA: IMF reviewing reported inflation rates

The International Monetary Fund is currently reviewing Argentina's reported inflation rates since 2007.  In February, the IMF censured Argentina for not providing accurate inflation rates and gave the country a September 29 deadline to provide accurate statistics. According to private estimates, inflation is at approximately 25 percent and has been for several years; however, the government states that the rate last month stood at 10.5 percent.  According to the IMF Managing Director, positive progress has been achieved this week in the process of "clarifying the numbers."  If Argentina and the IMF do not reach a consensus over the accuracy of Argentina's reported data, the IMF could impose sanctions that would bar Argentina from voting on IMF policies and accessing financing.  Comment: Argentina has refused to participate in the IMF's annual economic assessment since 2006.  Additionally, Argentina blames IMF policies for triggering the country's 2001-2002 economic crisis. (Mercopress, Trading Economics, Reuters, Bloomberg)

 

COLOMBIA: Agreement reached in FARC-Government peace talks

Representatives from FARC and the Colombian government are currently negotiating the "General Agreement for the End of the Conflict and Building a Stable and Lasting Peace," in Havana, Cuba.  Late last week, negotiating parties of the FARC and Colombian government announced an agreement on the political participation of the group, which calls for the creation of temporary special congressional districts in areas most affected by the conflict.  In addition, the agreement establishes mechanisms to ensure the physical security of members of any resulting political party from FARC.  However, the agreement did not address the issue of who could contest on behalf of FARC as anyone convicted of a crime against humanity is barred from holding political office.  Comment:  This is the second major agreement in the peace talks that started in November 2012. The next round of talks between the two parties is scheduled to begin on November 18 regarding the issue of illicit drugs. (UN, The Guardian, Prensa Latina, Reuters)

 

VENEZUELA: President implements nationwide price controls

On Saturday, President Maduro dispatched soldiers to electronics stores in Caracas, the nation's capital, to enforce price controls on electronic goods.  According to Maduro, the soldiers are supervising sales at significantly lower prices in an effort to clear the stock of goods at the stores.  Later in the week, President Maduro sent additional troops to stores around the country, stating that they too would need to lower their prices.  Several store managers have been arrested and charged of setting high prices. Comment: Venezuela's 12-month inflation rate is currently the highest in the world, at 54.3 percent, which has resulted in the black market exchange rate to stand at nine times the current fixed exchange rate of 6.30 bolivars per USD.  Maduro vowed to shut down internet sites that publish the value of the bolivar against the dollar on the black market, stating that they are spreading panic and leveraging a "quiet economic war" in efforts to destabilize his government.  President Maduro is facing municipal elections in one month. (NYTimes, el Nuevo Herald, AP, Reuters

 

Researched/Written by Meredith Maynard
East Asia

CAMBODIA: Garment workers protest for better working conditions

On Tuesday, workers from the SL Garment Processing Ltd. marched to the residence of Prime Minister Hun Sen in Phnom Penh, protesting for better working conditions and pay. The protest resulted in one bystander dead and 20 others injured. Authorities said that the protest became violent after five police officers went to negotiate with protesters. According to the National Police, the rioters surrounded the officers and began to attack them with rocks and slingshots. Initially security forces used water cannons but live ammunition and tear gas were employed later to dismantle the protest. Comment: The SL Garment Processing Ltd. makes clothing for popular international brands like Gap and H&M. Cambodia's largest exporters come from the garment industry and there are approximately 500,000 people working in 500 garment factories. Better Factories Cambodia - a non-profit organization started by U.N. to improve conditions of Cambodia's garment factories - says that safety and low pay is a serious problem, and they continue to push the Cambodian government to improve working conditions. The government, however, opposes the group, believing that this will lead business owners to leave Cambodia to set up factories elsewhere. (AFP, AP, NPR, WSJ, Aljazeera)

 

PHILIPPINES: Typhoon Haiyan's relief efforts face impediments

Last Friday, Typhoon Haiyan stuck the central part of the Philippines; the United Nations arrived on Tuesday to deliver aid supplies. The typhoon traveled at a speed of 314km per hour, and the UN estimates more than 11.3 million people have been affected by the storm. The country's civil defense agency confirmed Friday that the death toll currently stands at 3,621, although that number is expected to rise. Currently, heavy rainfall and road blockages continue to prevent relief efforts from reaching critical and remote areas. Tacloban, a capital city within the Leyte Province, is considered to be the most severely damaged, with over 200,000 people lacking food and water. Comment: On Monday, 29 countries pledged monetary aid totaling USD 35 million, but the UN has appealed for USD 301 million from the international community. Authorities say that Typhoon Haiyan is one of the worst storms to hit the Philippines since Typhoon Thelma killed 51,000 people in 1991. (NYTimes, AP, AFP, CNN

 

SOUTH KOREA/RUSSIA: Putin aims to link South and North Korean railways    

On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with South Korean President Park Geun-hye in Seoul to discuss expanding the Trans-Siberian Railways to South Korea. The Trans-Siberian Railway, also known as the "Iron Silk Road," is the world's longest railroad linking Europe and Russia.  In September, Russia secured a 54km track that connects the Russian city Khasan with Rajin, a northeastern city in North Korea. Linking South and North Korean railways to reach major port cities like Busan in South Korea would open up more trade opportunities for Russia.  President Putin hopes to sign an agreement, but the South Korean government has not made any decisions. Comment: Following North Korea's sinking of a South Korean naval warship in 2010, the Ministry of Unification banned South Korean companies from investing in North Korea. There have been rumors about top South Korean companies like Posco, Hyundai, and Korean Railroad Corp getting involved with the Iron Silk Road project; however, some experts say this is unlikely given that the political situation with North Korea is highly unpredictable and their investment may fall through. (AFP, WSJ, VOA)  

  
Researched/Written by Grace Choi
Europe & Central Asia

FRANCE/NETHERLANDS: Alliance between politicians across national borders

On Wednesday, Marine Le Pen, head of France's far-right National Front party and Geert Wilders, leader of the Dutch nationalist Party for Freedom, announced the formation of an alliance from The Hague. Wilders stated, "today is the start of the liberation of Europe from the monster of Brussels," indicating that the alliance seeks to undermine the European Union. Comment: The alliance was created amid growing voter frustration with the EU and also before the European Parliament elections scheduled for May. While Le Pen and Wilders both indicated they would be willing to work with other anti-EU groups, other prominent groups within Europe have not responded favorably to the newly-formed alliance. The UK Independence Party, for example, has made no indication that they would join the initative. This group's leader, Nigel Farage, is also the head of the euroskeptic group in the European Parliament, Europe of Freedom and Democracy, which holds 32 seats out of the 766-seat European Parliament. Historically, nationalist parties throughout Europe have stood divided along national lines, never joining together and instead standing fragmented throughout the continent. (France 24, Agence France-Presse, Washington Post, BBC News, Reuters)

 

POLAND/RUSSIA: Nationalist protests in Warsaw strain Polish-Russo relations

On November 11, during a march to mark Polish Independence Day that included roughly 50,000 people, far-right Polish marchers began a protest outside the Russian embassy in Warsaw. The protestors threw firecrackers at the embassy, set a security station and two cars on fire, and attempted to scale the fence around the compound. Police were able to end the protests by using rubber bullets. The police arrested 72 people. On Wednesday, Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski issued a formal apology to Russia for the rioting outside its embassy. Comment: The Polish foreign ministry released a statement online expressing the Polish governments regret for the aggressive behavior outside the Russian embassy shortly after the incident occurred; however, the Russian foreign ministry demanded an official apology be made as well as the implementation of measures to protect the security and operation of the Russian embassy in Poland. (Radio Free Europe, BBC News, Reuters)

 

UKRAINE/RUSSIA: Ukraine decreases consumption of gas from Russia

On November 11, Naftogaz, Ukraine's national gas and oil company, stopped importing Russian natural gas due to a dispute over pricing. Ukraine pays USD 400 per 1,000 cubic meters of Russian gas, which is one of the highest prices in Europe. Due to Ukraine's high level of debt, it has repeatedly sought a reduction in gas prices. Comment: Russia supplies roughly half of its gas to Europe through Ukraine; currently the gas flow from Russia to Europe remains unaffected by the cessation in consumption in Ukraine. The halt of purchasing gas from Russia comes just a few weeks before Ukraine is scheduled to sign a free-trade agreement with the European Union, an issue that has increased tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Analysts fear a new "gas war" will emerge between the two nations similar to the issues that arose in the winters of 2006 and 2009. In 2009, the dispute shut down the main pipeline providing gas to central and southeastern Europe, resulting in thousands spending the winter without heating in below-freezing temperatures. (Ria Novosti, RT, Reuters

 

Researched/Written by Rukmani Bhatia

Middle East & North Africa 

IRAN: Talks conclude without reaching deal

On Sunday, talks between the P5+1 and Iran concluded without reaching an agreement. The talks were aimed at forming an interim agreement where Iran would temporarily suspend several key elements of its disputed nuclear program in exchange for some sanctions relief from the United States. The failure to reach an agreement was reportedly due in part to disagreements over technical issues, as well as objections from France, a member of the P5+1. Israel has also expressed reservations over any deal that would allow Iran to retain any civilian nuclear capabilities. Secretary Kerry reported that both sides are determined to reach a deal, and negotiations are scheduled to resume on November 20. Comment: The negotiations last week were the most extensive and direct discussions between the U.S. and Iran in several decades. The two countries have attempted talks over Iran's nuclear program in recent years, but have so far been unsuccessful. While Iran maintains that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, including medical research and treatment, the Israeli government argues that Iran could seek to acquire nuclear weapons. Israel has repeatedly threatened military action against Iran if it continues to pursue its nuclear program, and has applied pressure on the U.S. to commit to helping Israel in any future military operation against Iran. (Times of Israel, Reuters, Washington Post)

 

ISRAEL/PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES: Palestinian negotiating delegation steps down

On Wednesday, Palestinian President Abbas announced that the Palestinian negotiating team has stepped down, citing a lack of progress in the current round of talks with Israel that have been brokered by the United States. President Abbas said in an interview on Egyptian television that the negotiations would continue despite the delegation's resignation, and also blamed the current problems on continued construction of Israeli settlements in the West Bank. The Israeli government announced last week that it would commission 24,000 new housing settlements in the West Bank, which drew Palestinian condemnation and expressions of concern by the United States. Israeli PM Netanyahu subsequently reversed the decision to build new settlements, saying he had no prior knowledge of the building plans. Comment: Israeli settlement building has been a repeated issue in this current round of negotiations, as well as in talks in past years. While members of the Israeli government argue that Israel has historic and biblical links to the West Bank and Jerusalem, Palestinians claim that continued settlement building will make a future Palestinian state based in Gaza and the West Bank impossible. Some analysts believe that PM Netanyahu's decision to reverse the planned settlements is an attempt to strengthen Israel's position in negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. Most countries believe Israel's settlements violate international law. (Al Arabiya, BBC, Reuters)

 

SYRIA: Kurdish fighters seize villages in northeast after declaring self-rule

On Wednesday, activists announced that Kurdish fighters have seized an additional seven villages in northeastern Syria, after the political wing of the rebel group announced it will seek to establish an autonomous Kurdish region in Syria. These Kurdish fighters are associated with the Democratic Union Party (PYD). The proposal calls for a political structure similar to that of the Kurdish region in Iraq, where Syria's Kurdish region would remain part of Syria, but would have its own parliament, flag, and national anthem. While PYD representatives deny that they are seeking to create a separate Kurdish state, the declaration of self-rule has drawn mixed reactions from neighboring countries as well as other Kurdish political parties who believe it may further destabilize Syria and the broader region. Comment: There are an estimated 30 million Kurds worldwide, who are mostly concentrated in Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Kurds make up about 10 percent of the population in Syria.  Since the start of the Syrian conflict in 2011, Kurdish fighters have captured most of the Kurdish-majority cities in Syria, which are located primarily in the northeast. Much of their fighting has been against various Islamist rebel groups who previously held territory in the region. (Al Arabiya, BBC, Reuters)

 

Researched/Written by Katy Magill

South Asia

INDIA: Record voter turnout in Maoist-hit Chhattisgarh

The first phase of State Assembly polls on Monday in the Maoist-hit state of Chhattisgarh recorded a 67 percent voter turnout in the sensitive Bastar and Rajnandgaon districts. Some of the tribal constituencies recorded 75 percent polling, which is the highest turnout in a decade, despite the Maoist threat of landmines and violence against the election process. Describing the vote as a "historic success," the Chhattisgarh Police deployed 100,000 troops to ensure the security of 2.9 million tribal voters. In retaliation, the Maoists carried out five IED explosions in Rajnandgaon, fired at security personnel, and prevented polling parties from reaching two booths. On Tuesday, they also attacked some polling parties returning to district headquarters, killing two Border Security Forces soldiers. For the first time in a decade, polling officials accompanied by security personnel walked up to 40km into the jungles to ensure voting. Comment: In comparison to the polling in 2008, the scale of violence and disruption was small this time. The Naxalite-Maoist insurgency against the government has been an ongoing problem since 2004, killing about 6,000 civilians and 2,500 security forces so far.  (Indian Express, TOI, BBC)

 

MALDIVES: Second round of Presidential elections rescheduled for November 16

On Saturday, the Supreme Court of Maldives suspended the second round of presidential run-off elections scheduled for November 10 and rescheduled them for November 16, in line with the demands of ex-President Nasheed's opposition candidates. In the third attempt at Presidential elections within two months, Nasheed polled nearly 47 percent of votes, just short of 50 percent required for clear victory.  Abdulla Yameen, a half-brother of the former dictator, polled 29.7 percent of the votes, while a former finance minister Gasim Ibrahim polled 23.3 percent. In response to the delay, President Waheed declared on Saturday that he would remain in power until a new president was elected, despite a constitutional mandate to step down. In protest of this decision, about a thousand pro-democracy protestors clashed with the police in Male, who responded with pepper spray and batons to disperse the crowd. Several international actors, such as the United States, India and Commonwealth, condemned the "unreasonable and unacceptable" delay in Presidential elections. Comment: The political crisis has hit tourism, which is a vital source of revenue. Maldives faces fuel shortages because of its inability to pay suppliers due to the dwindling foreign exchange reserves. (Minivan news, Reuters, Aljazeera).

 

PAKISTAN: Senior Haqqani leader shot dead in Islamabad

Nasiruddin Haqqani, a senior leader of the Haqqani network and son of its founder, was shot dead by unidentified gunmen on motorbikes on Sunday night in the outskirts of Islamabad.  Haqqani was the chief financier of the network, which is affiliated with Afghan Taliban and one of the most feared groups fighting the U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan. He was based in the city of Rawalpindi with his family for many years. The Taliban has condemned the attack, saying "his death is a big loss for Islamic Emirate and all Afghanistan." The presence of Haqqani in Pakistan is likely to raise questions in Washington, which accuses the Pakistan Intelligence agency of supporting the network. Comment:  The U.S holds the Haqqanis responsible for some of the most high-profile attacks in Afghanistan, including a 2011 siege of the U.S. embassy and the deadly attack on CIA in 2009. The U.S. placed the network on its terror blacklist in September 2012. (The Dawn, Aljazeera, Reuters)

 

REGIONAL: Indian and Canadian Prime Ministers to skip the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM)

On Sunday, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh declared that he would not attend the CHOGM hosted by Sri Lanka in Colombo this year from November 15-17; Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid will represent India at the meeting. Alleging massacre of Tamil civilians by Sri Lankan forces in 2009, Tamil groups, regional parties and members of his ruling Congress Party stressed on PM Singh to boycott the meeting. PM Singh is the second leader to boycott the 53-nation meeting after Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who said that the lack of accountability for human rights abuses "during and after the civil war is unacceptable." Comment: India has 62 million Tamils in its southern Tamil Nadu state who share close religious and cultural ties with their Sri Lankan counterparts. Analysts have criticized Singh's decision for allowing China to increase its influence in Sri Lanka which already funds the nation's military and infrastructure projects. (TOI, Reuters, Aljazeera)

 

Researched/Written by Shruti Godbole

November 15, 2013
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