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PEACE & SECURITY REPORT
IPSI's Peace & Security Report (PSR) is a concise weekly e-publication intended to brief busy students, academics, advocates, and practitioners in the conflict management community on pertinent global news, events, and trends. The PSR empowers us all to take a step back from our immediate deadlines each Friday and gain a greater understanding of the week's global events.

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Featured Article

Syria Simulations Project Report

International Peace & Security Institute

As violence continues unabated, Syrians and the international community are seeking greater information on how to resolve the armed conflict and then transition the country from civil war to stability.  To address the question of how the Syrian conflict will end and what a possible transition might look like, the International Peace & Security Institute (IPSI) developed a series of half day-to-three day interactive, flexible multilateral simulations based on the conflict in Syria.

 

These simulations are important for both the value of the experiential educational process for participants (i.e. the ability to "get into the head" of conflict actors) and for their powerful predictive analysis (i.e. simulation players' decisions have closely mirrored the future decisions of real-world actors).

 

 

Africa 

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC: Additional AU forces in response to increased violence

Escalating violence in CAR prompted the international community to announce the creation of the AU-led Mission in Central Africa Republic (MISCA) this week, which will be a 3,600-strong international peacekeeping force by January 2014. Currently 1,100 Economic Community of Central African States (CEEAC) regional troops are already in place, but sectarian conflicts are spreading throughout the country. Members of the Seleka rebel group accuse fighters loyal to former President Bozize of inciting anti-Muslim violence. Human Rights Watch reports that Seleka forces have committed wide-spread attacks against civilians since deposing Bozize. Comment:  Last Friday in response to the violence, President Michel Djotodia dissolved the Seleka party which installed him into office six months ago and removed the leader of the armed forces, after clashes with fighters loyal to Bozize caused 100 fatalities. France is leading the push for intervention in CAR in order to prevent state failure similar to the situation of Somalia. (AP, Reuters, VOA)

 

MALI: Unrest in North continues as new government takes office

On Wednesday, President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita announced that the first parliamentary elections under the new government will take place on November 24. Also on Wednesday, 150 Chadian soldiers of the UN peacekeeping force protested their length of stay in northern Mali and left their posts in Tessalit for the southeast town of Goa. Last Wednesday, Taureg rebels from the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (NMLA) clashed with Malian soldiers along the Mauritanian border. On Sunday, protestors in Kidal attempted to obstruct Minister of National Reconciliation and Development of the North Chieick Oumar Dirrah and other ministers from visiting the North by occupying an airport runway; African peacekeepers thwarted the protesters who instead threw stones at the ministers' convoys. Comment: On Thursday, French President Hollande stated that the war against extremists has been "won," but that France will continue to support Mali during its transition. The violence between NMLA and Malian forces was the first since the signing of the peace accord in June, and both sides accuse the other of instigating the clash. Minister Dirrah stated that the protests were minor incidents and will not stop the reconciliation process. (AP, Reuters, AFP)

 

REGIONAL:  Oil attracts investment in Sudan and South Sudan from China and Japan

On Monday, the Sudanese Minister of Finance and Economy signed two agreements with the Chinese Deputy Ministry of Commerce for a free loan of USD 16 million, as well as a USD 32 million grant for oil industry projects and other resource projects. On the same day, details of a June agreement between Japan and South Sudan were released, stating that Toyota Tsusho East Africa Ltd will build a 2,000 km oil pipeline that would allow South Sudanese oil to bypass Sudan. The pipeline is estimated to cost USD 5 billion and will connect a pipeline from Uganda to the South Sudan-Kenya pipeline, ending in the Kenyan port of Lamu. Comment: Currently, Lamu's infrastructure is not complete, and requires regional commitment and financial backers to achieve the USD 25.5 billion Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) plan that includes a port, roads, a railway, and a pipeline. China is the largest investor in Africa, but Japan plans to increase investments in African nations. A pipeline bypassing Sudan will give South Sudan greater economic autonomy. In 2011, Sudan shut down oil production in South Sudan for 16 months, causing South Sudan to borrow USD 1.6 billion to fund its budget. (Sudan Vision, Sudan Tribune, Reuters, Energy Tribune

 

Researched/Written by Melissa Newcomb

Americas

COLOMBIA: Human Rights Watch claims lack of convictions in forced displacement cases

On September 17, Human Rights Watch (HRW) reported that less than one percent of 17,000 criminal investigations into forced displacement of Colombian citizens by illegal armed groups have yielded convictions.  Additionally, HRW has found that at least 21 land claimant activist have been killed since 2008. Civilians, including peasants and farmers, have been forcibly removed from roughly 60,000 square km since 2010.  In the past three decades, mainly far-right paramilitary groups have forced 4.5 million people from their homes. Comment: Colombia's largest rebel group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), is currently in peace negotiations in Cuba with President Juan Manuel Santos' government, with the goal of ending a 50 year old conflict. (AP, Miami Herald, Argentina Star)

 

HAITI: Haiti takes steps to restore army

After an eight-month training in Ecuador, the first 41 recruits of the reactivated Haitian army, including 30 soldiers, 10 engineers, and one officer, were sworn in as part of President Michel Martelly's plans to reinstate the Haitian Army. The initial work of recruits will primarily be in technical services, including the rebuilding of roads and labor in rice paddies in central Haiti. Recruits will not carry military-issued weapons for the first three-to-four years of service. Comment: Ecuador has contributed more than USD 30 million to Haiti to assist in the rebuilding of infrastructure. Haiti's army was abolished in 1995 by then President Jean-Bertrand Aristide after the dictatorship of Lt. Gen. Raoul Cedras. Between 1991-1994, the Haitian army and paramilitary allies were involved in the torture or imprisonment of thousands of people, as well as the deaths of approximately 5,000. (AP, Inter Press Service, Euro News)

 

MEXICO: End of protests in Mexico City

On Friday in Mexico City's main square, Mexican police forcibly removed 20,000 protesters aiming to block education reforms enacted by President Enrique Pe�a Nieto, thus ending the month-long protests.  Pe�a Nieto's reforms implement teacher evaluations and reduce union authority in hiring decisions. Police used water cannons and tear gas to disperse protesters, and 17 officers and five teachers were injured. A group of 500 protesters put up makeshift barricades on the streets leading to the square and still remain in the main square.  Comment: Further public opposition has been voiced for aspects of Pe�a Nieto's reforms including a tax increase and profits-sharing contracts for private firms in the state-owned oil industry. Additionally, government officials state that in exchange for the dispersion of protesters from the square, the Mexican government will provide extra funds to pay for teacher training and for building and repairing schools in poor southern states. (Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Miami Herald).

 

NICARAGUA/COLOMBIA: Nicaraguan Government enacts lawsuit at the International Court of Justice against Colombia

On September 16, the government of Nicaragua introduced a new lawsuit against Colombia requesting the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague to clearly define the maritime border between the two countries. On November 19, 2012 the ICJ granted Nicaragua control over 60 percent of the disputed area, a ruling that Colombia claims is not applicable.  Nicaragua is now requesting that The Hague specifies the exact path of the maritime boundary. Comment: The initial treaty signed between the two countries was in 1928; however, Nicaragua first filed a land dispute claim in December 2001 in which the court found that Nicaragua did not have jurisdiction over the sovereignty of the islands of San Andr�s, Providencia and Santa Catalina. Additionally, last month, Nicaragua announced it would begin to drill for oil and gas in this area. (el Nuevo Herald, BBC, The Hague Justice Portal)

 

Researched/Written by Meredith Maynard
East Asia

CAMBODIA: Opposition protests continue over election results

On Sunday, renewed protests broke out against the reelection of the prime minister in Phnom Penh.  During the protests, opposition leader Sam Rainsy met with several thousand of his supporters to demand an investigation of the election that had led Prime Minister Hun Sen to victory in July. Protests turned violent, leaving one person dead and many others injured. In order to stop the violence, Rainsy and Hun Sen met for several hours on Monday and Tuesday and agreed on forming a committee to oversee election processes in the future. Despite these developments, the opposition announced this morning that it would boycott Monday's opening session of parliament if no investigation is made into the alleged election fraud.  Comment: Sam Rainsy, a former finance minister, ran against the prime minister, Hun Sen, in July's election.  The opposition failed to gain the majority of seats in the National Assembly, winning 55 seats to Hun Sen's party's 68 seats. The opposition alleges election fraud. Hun Sen says it is "unlawful" to reverse the poll; he has been the prime minister for 28 years. (NY Times, Global Post, BBC)

 

PHILIPPINES: City under turmoil while standoff continues

On Tuesday, the chief of police of Zamboanga City, Mindanao, Jose Chiquito Malayo, was held against his will by the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) while trying to convince rebels to surrender. Hours later, he returned unharmed with 23 rebels whom he had convinced to surrender. According to Malayo, morale of these rebels had already broken down, giving him room to negotiate. Since September 9, when hundreds of MNFL gunmen tried to take control of Zamboagna, more than 90 people have died, approximately 180 have been held hostage, and 100,000 people have been left homeless. Officials, however, say that tensions are easing, with the airport and businesses re-opening. Comment: Mindanao has historically been the site of great amounts of conflict. After the independence of the Philippines in 1946, government programs relocated Roman Catholics and other Christians to Mindanao, to the protest of the Muslim Filipinos who had considered the island "their ancestral homeland." The fight for independence in the 1970's led to a peace treaty in 1996 that granted limited self-rule to Muslim groups. (NYTimesPhilStar, Channel NewsAsia, AP)

 

REGIONAL: China advocates Six-Party talks

On Wednesday, at a forum hosted by China marking the tenth anniversary of the start of the Six-Party talks, North Korea pledged a return to talks, but only "without preconditions" by other parties. Supporting North Korea, China has reinvested its political capital to revitalize the talks. High-level representatives from the U.S., South Korea, and Japan were absent at the commemoration, citing skepticism that a lack of "meaningful actions" on the part of North Korea will result in another stalemate. Comment: Since the last round of talks in 2008, North Korea has ignored the 2005 Joint Statement it had agreed to by testing its nuclear weapons. More recently, North Korea has been under observation from UN-mandated investigators for its violations of human rights. In order for the International Criminal Court (ICC) to take on the case, China, a permanent member of the Security Council and a longtime ally of North Korea, would have to give its consent. The cooperation between the members of six-party talks is crucial to mitigating growing tensions in North Korea. (NY Times,The Atlantic,Global Post, Rappler, AP)

 
Researched/Written by Grace Choi
Europe & Central Asia

CROATIA: EU Commission threatens sanctions for non-compliance on arrest warrant policy

On September 16, the European Commission threatened to place sanctions on Croatia for passing legislature that is not in line with EU arrest warrant policy. Croatian legislation limits EU arrest warrants that are valid in all member nations to crimes committed after August 2002. EU member states have two weeks to consider Croatia's violation before determining clearly defined penalties. By not immediately reforming the law, Croatia could be denied EU funds amounting to EUR 80 million for border control. Comment: The law in question was passed on Croatia's last business day before joining the EU on July 1, 2013. Officially, the law was passed to protect veterans of the Yugoslav Wars of 1991 - 1995 from prosecution abroad. Croatian lawmakers said the law would be changed after July 2014. (Balkan Investigative Reporting Network, Dalje, Agence France-Presse, Spiegel, Radio Free Europe, Reuters/EurActiv, AP)

 

KOSOVO: Attack on a EULEX officer

On September 19, a EULEX officer with the EU's rule of law and order mission was shot and killed while on a routine patrol in the Zvecan region near Mitrovica in northern Kosovo. The shooter remains unidentified. Kosovo's President Atifete Jahjaga made a statement that the attack was an attempt to destabilize the country. Kosovo is planning to hold local elections throughout the country, including the northern region, on November 3, 2013. EU High Representative Catherine Ashton reaffirmed the EU's commitment to Kosovo. This is the first killing of a EULEX officer since the launch of the EU's rule of law mission in Kosovo in 2008.  Comment: Kosovo is an ethnic Albanian majority state with a Serbian minority concentrated in the northern region. In 2008, Kosovo declared independence from Serbia, a declaration that has not been recognized by Serbia, which retains de facto control over the north. In April 2013, Serbia ceded its hold over the northern part in an attempt to advance talks to join the EU. (Radio Free Europe, Balkan Insight, Reuters)

 

NORTHERN IRELAND: Critical peace talks underway

New political talks in Northern Ireland began on September 17 to address community tensions that have erupted over the past year; Dr. Richard Haass, a U.S. diplomat, is serving as chair. The peace talks are scheduled to end in December 2013 and will engage all power-sharing parities, as well as community groups and smaller parties. Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness believes these talks are vital and will resolve issues that threaten the stability of Northern Ireland. Comment: In December 2012, Belfast councilors passed a law limiting the number of days the British flag would fly over city hall. This decision caused public outcry and resulted in various campaigns of street demonstrations and a summer of marches. Some of the demonstrations ended in violence. The parades and violence speak to embedded issues that the peace talks aim to resolve. (Belfast Telegraph, Irish Times, Guardian, BBC News)      

 

REGIONAL: EU pledges EUR 1.8 billion to rebuild Somalia

The EU and its individual member states have pledged to donate EUR 1.8 billion in order to help rebuild the fragile state of Somalia by funding the new peace and state-building programs over the next three years. The EU will provide EUR 650 million while the rest of the pledge will be fulfilled by the individual member states of Germany, Sweden, Denmark, and the UK. The majority of the funding will be provided to African Union troops within Somalia with the goal of securing Somalia's recovery process. Comment: Following the overthrow of President Siad Barre in 1991, Somalia entered a turbulent civil war. The EU believes that following the legitimate election of Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, this proposed funding would aid the country in progressing on the security front to combat and potentially oust the al-Qaeda linked al-Shabab from their strongholds within Somalia. Catherine Ashton, the EU's High Representative made clear that the money should be seen as an investment in the future stability of Somalia. The EU has engaged in providing aid to the country in previous years; however, given the recent shift to legitimate elections, the hope is that the aid will be used to further the peacebuilding mission in Somalia, resulting in the establishment of a peaceful and secure state. Members of al-Shabab have publically stated the pledges either will not materialize or be improperly used by politicians. (EurActiv, Euronews, EEAS Europa, Reuters, BBC News)

 

Researched/Written by Rukmani Bhatia

Middle East & North Africa 

IRAQ: Attacks across Iraq kill at least 70

A series of car bombings and armed attacks across Iraq has killed at least 70 people since Sunday, including civilians and police officers. Several car bombings in Baghdad primarily targeted Shi'a neighborhoods, while separate attacks occurred in the northern city of Mosul and the predominantly Sunni western city of Fallujah. Comment: While no group has claimed official responsibility, these attacks come amid a significant increase in sectarian violence between Iraq's Sunni and Shiite populations in recent months. According to the UN, more than 4,200 people have been killed in 2013, with 804 killed in August, the highest monthly death toll since 2008. The Shi'a-led government faces criticism for failing to address the concerns of Iraq's Sunni minority and for specifically targeting Sunni communities during recent security crackdowns. Analysts and diplomats say that Sunni militant groups have sought to exploit these grievances to gain recruits. Sectarian tensions within Iraq have also been worsened by the conflict in neighboring Syria. (AP, AFP, BBC, Al Jazeera)

 

LIBYA: Prime Minister Zeidan appeals to international community for "real and practical assistance"

On Tuesday, PM Zeidan met with British PM Cameron and appealed to the international community for aid in "the collection of arms and ammunition," as well as the reintegration of militia groups. This request comes after the UN committee on Libyan sanctions reported to the UN Security Council on Monday that weapons are being smuggled from Libya to Syria. Libya is also experiencing ongoing strikes and protests by workers and regional militias at the nation's energy facilities, which have caused a significant decline in oil production and estimated government losses of USD 7.5 billion in 2013.  Comment: The Libyan government has faced major challenges in disarming and reintegrating regional militias that emerged during and after the revolution that toppled Muammar Gadhafi. The government has been largely unsuccessful in forming a national military force capable of reestablishing security across the whole of Libya's vast territory and rebuilding energy infrastructure. Earlier this year the Libyan government signed agreements with the U.S. and several European countries to help train and equip Libyan military forces, but regional militias maintain control over many key energy facilities. (Libya Herald, Reuters, BBC)

 

REGIONAL: U.S. and Russia reach agreement on destruction of Syria's chemical weapons

On Saturday, the U.S. and Russia agreed to a deal that would require Syria to provide a full inventory of its chemical weapons stockpiles within a week, and place them under international control by mid-2014. Both Russia and the U.S. plan to seek a UN Security Council resolution to support their bilateral agreement, though they disagree on whether the resolution will allow for the use of force should the Syrian regime fail to comply with the terms of the agreement. There is also disagreement among Security Council members over the interpretation of the UN report on the chemical weapons attack that took place outside of Damascus on August 21; the U.S. and France argue that evidence presented in the report proves that the Assad regime was responsible for launching chemical weapons, while Russia maintains that the report is inconclusive and that rebel forces perpetrated the attack. Comment: While this agreement has temporarily postponed a U.S. military strike in Syria, analysts and military experts argue that there are numerous logistical challenges to its full implementation. International forces will face the difficulty of inspecting multiple chemical weapons storage and production facilities before transporting those weapons to secure locations, all within an active conflict zone. This will require significant cooperation both from the Assad regime and rebel forces, as well as between various international partners. President Assad announced on Thursday that this plan will take at least a year and USD 1 billion to fully implement. (Al Jazeera, BBC, Washington Post)

 

SYRIA/JORDAN: Rate of Syrian refugee influx into Jordan increased nearly tenfold last week

Last week, Jordanian officials estimated that the number of Syrian refugees entering Jordan increased nearly tenfold to an average of 900 per day, the highest level in months. The number of refugees returning to Syria from Jordan also increased to about 600 per day. Members of the Free Syrian Army who monitor refugee movement also estimate that there are 67,000 Syrians currently at the border with Jordan, waiting to see whether the U.S. will launch strikes against Syrian military targets. Comment: There are currently 127,604 Syrian refugees living in camps in Jordan, while thousands more live in surrounding towns and communities. Refugees frequently cross back and forth between Syria and Jordan depending on the security situation along the border and conditions within the camps. According to the UNHCR, Jordan currently has the second largest population of Syrian refugees after Lebanon, which hosts more than 742,000. The UN estimates that a total of two million refugees have left Syria, with many more displaced internally. Syria's neighbors face major challenges in providing adequate food, water and shelter to their growing refugee populations. (Jordan Times, AP, UNHCR)

 

Researched/Written by Katy Magill

South Asia

AFGHANISTAN: Deteriorating human rights situation

On her two day visit to Kabul, Afghanistan this week, the UN Human Rights Commissioner Navi Pillay expressed concern over the deteriorating condition of human rights in Afghanistan. Her skepticism of the Afghan efforts to strengthen human rights comes to light with an increase in civilian casualties in the first half of 2013, increasing violence against women, and the appointment of a former Taliban official to the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Office (AIHRC). Pillay also suggested the possible downgrading of AIHRC's top-ranked status, damaging and affecting the financial funding to the body. She articulated her concern of backsliding on the progress achieved in the last 12 years for "political expediency" by the Afghan government, in the wake of foreign troop withdrawal and presidential elections in 2014. Comment: According to analysts, the deteriorating human rights situation in Afghanistan has the potential to hamper aid flowing in from the developed countries due to the fact that protection of human rights is usually an important precursor for aid packages. (Reuters, BBC, UN News Centre)

 

BANGLADESH: Jamaat-e-Islami leader sentenced to death by the Supreme Court

On September 17, the Supreme Court of Bangladesh sentenced Quader Mollah, the fourth highest Jamaat-e-Islami leader, to death for crimes against humanity during the 1971 liberation war. He was convicted of the rape, murder, and mass murder of approximately 350 unarmed Bengali civilians during the war. This verdict was an addendum to the earlier verdict of life imprisonment handed out by the Bangladesh International War Crimes Tribunal in February. While the secular protesters who considered the former sentence too lenient welcomed this ruling, the Jamaat-e-Islami activists and its student wing Islami Chhatra Shibir incited a wave of violence in different parts of the country, causing mass destruction of public property. The Party also called for a 48-hour general strike condemning the ruling. On Wednesday, schools and businesses were closed. Comment: This judgment could increase political tensions before the elections to be held in January since Jamaat is an ally of the main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. (The Bangladesh Today, The Bangladesh Today, The Dawn)

 

INDIA: Muzaffarnagar riots claim 49 lives and displace thousands

Communal clashes between Hindu and Muslim communities in Muzzaffarnagar, Uttar Pradesh, a northwestern state located 125 km from New Delhi, have claimed 49 lives, injured nearly 100 and rendered around 45,000 people homeless since September 7. The violence was allegedly sparked by the killing of two men who had objected to a young woman being harassed. According to local news sources, these riots have been deemed to be the worst in a decade in the country and it was the first time in two decades that the army was summoned to control communal clashes of such nature. Although the army began to withdraw earlier this week, the deployment of central paramilitary forces continues to prevent the reoccurrence of violence in the district. On Wednesday, the local court also issued arrest warrants against 16 politicians from various political parties on the charges of inciting violence through inflammatory speeches during the riots. Comment: It is being alleged that the riots have been instigated by political parties trying to polarize the population along religious lines ahead of the elections scheduled for 2014. (The Times of India, Hindustan Times, BBC)

 

PAKISTAN: Taliban's preconditions for peace talks

The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has claimed responsibility for the attack that killed seven soldiers and two high-ranking senior officials of the Pakistan Army on September 15 in the Upper Dir district of Northwest Pakistan. In response to the offer of peace talks by the Pakistan government last week, the Taliban announced that it would only engage in the negotiations if the government released its prisoners and withdrew troops from the tribal areas. These preconditions put forth by the Taliban received strong censure from General Ashfaq Kayani, who stated that the military would not permit the rebels to dictate terms or allow them to force the military into compliance. He reiterated the army's ability to fight terrorists in the event of failure of the peace talks. Analysts claim that the killing of two army officers has further widened the government distrust about the viability of peace talks with the Taliban. It has also made it difficult for both parties to carry out negotiations and reach a consensus. Comment: So far 40,000 people have died in bomb and suicide attacks by Taliban and Al-Qaeda led militants in Pakistan. (Tribune, Tribune, DW, Reuters)

              

Researched/Written by Shruti Godbole

September 20, 2013
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In This Issue
Featured Article
Africa
Americas
East Asia
Europe & Central Asia
Middle East & North Africa
South Asia

IPSI Trainings


What an AMAZING summer it's been!
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Did you read the blogs?

 The 2013 Bologna Symposium on Conflict Prevention, Resolution, & Reconciliation 
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The 2013 The Hague Symposium on Post-Conflict Transitions & International Justice
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IPSI faculty Juan Mendez, UN Special Rapporteur on Torture, releases a New Thematic Report on the Standard Minimum Rules for the Treatment of Prisoners 

 

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Dr. Francis Deng
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Amb. Jacques Paul Klein
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