IPSI's Peace & Security Report (PSR) is a concise weekly e-publication intended to brief busy students, academics, advocates, and practitioners in the conflict management community on pertinent global news, events, and trends. The PSR empowers us all to take a step back from our immediate deadlines each Friday and gain a greater understanding of the week's global events.

  

 

Prime Minister Salam Fayyad's resignation has pushed questions of West Bank economic, political and security stability back to the fore. Even under Fayyad, the last year has been the most tumultuous since Hamas seized Gaza in 2007. The Palestinian Authority (PA) found itself in a financial crisis, unable to pay salaries or halt economic decline. Fatah, resentful of marginalisation, exploited the resulting economic-cum-political protests, which quickly escaped its control. Escalating Israeli-Palestinian clashes gave rise to predictions of a third intifada. For now, though rates of violence remain comparatively high, the general mood has quieted; U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry's diplomatic initiative faces myriad obstacles, but a sustained uprising is unlikely to be among them. There are ways to further insulate the West Bank against instability, but if the interested parties do not get beyond managing conflict triggers to addressing root issues, today's relative calm could well be fleeting.

 

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COLOMBIA: Breakthrough in FARC peace negotiations

On Sunday, the Colombian government and representatives from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) rebel group agreed to preliminary terms for agricultural land reform during peace talks in Havana, Cuba.  The agreement is the first major breakthrough in negotiations aiming to end the five-decade long conflict between the rebel group and the national government.  The agreement would create a "Land Fund" to redistribute land illegally seized during the conflict, as well as give fair access to poor farmers through credits and loans. The deal also includes government investment for economic and social development of rural areas.  Land reform represents the first of the six points agreed to in the negotiated peace agenda.  The remaining points are: political participation, disarmament, ending of the illicit drug trade, reparations paid to victims of the conflict, and implementation of peace. Comment: Analysts are optimistic that this milestone will quickly lead to a completed negotiated agreement ending the longest standing conflict in Latin America, which has claimed thousands of lives and displaced millions of citizens. The agreement marks the first breakthrough in seven failed attempts at peace between the two parties.  Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos previously stated his hopes of ending talks this year, but both sides concur that no settlement will be made until all terms are agreed upon. Peace talks are set to continue June 11 to address future political participation for FARC. (BBC, CNN, El Tiempo, LA Times)  

 

HONDURAS: Deadly gangs form a truce

On Wednesday, two of the world's most violent gangs, the Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) and Calle 18 (18th Street gang), announced a truce pledging to end gang violence in Honduras. Five Salvadorian gangs turned in 154 weapons to Adam Blackwell, the Secretary for Multidimensional Security of the Organization of American States (OAS) on Monday, symbolizing the laying down of arms in Honduras. The truce was arranged by Bishop Romulo Emiliani, a Roman Catholic Church leader, and is supported by Honduran President Lobo, as well as the OAS.  Comment: The two gangs are seeking forgiveness and reintegration into society in an effort to end the perpetuating culture of gang violence that originated in Los Angeles and has spread to Central America. The truce may help reduce the number of violent deaths in Honduras, the country with the highest murder rate in the world (91.6 killings per 100,000 people). The gangs have already succeeded in forming a truce in neighboring El Salvador.  Salvadorian officials have reported a 52 percent decline in homicide rates since the truce was brokered more than a year ago. (BBC, CNN, La Prensa)       

 

UNITED STATES: Confidential U.S. weapons designs compromised by Chinese hackers

On Monday, Chinese hackers reportedly breached more than two-dozen U.S. weapons system designs, according to a report published by the Defense Science Board created for the Pentagon and other government officials.  The weapons systems are thought to be pertaining to U.S. missile defenses as well as combat aircrafts and ships. The report does not accuse the Chinese government of stealing the designs.  Comment: Some experts believe this is an attempt by China to modernize their military and weaken the United States' military advantage. China's acquisition of these designs may also give the country an operational edge, as well as benefit their defense industry, saving the nation billions in development costs. Pentagon spokesperson, George Little, has subsequently downplayed the report and believes that the U.S. military advantage is far from compromised. Nonetheless, this latest cyber security threat may fuel calls for the Pentagon to increase their ability to combat future cyber espionage, especially as a report published in January by the Defense Science Board cited deficiencies in the Pentagon's ability to defend against large-scale cyber attacks. The topic will almost certainly be discussed during next weeks meeting between President Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping. (BBC, Reuters, Washington Post).  

 

INDONESIA/MALAYSIA: Joint military exercises in June

The militaries of Indonesia and Malaysia will conduct joint exercises in North Sumatra, Indonesia from June 7 through 12.  According to Vice Admiral Widodo, the deputy assistant of Indonesia's military commander, the drill has the goal of boosting professionalism of military officers from both countries and will be an opportunity for an exchange of expertise and experience. Officers from both countries have stated that the joint exercise is aimed at helping them prevent and face any potential threats throughout the islands. Comment: This is not the first time the two countries will conduct drills together; the joint military exercises for land, air and naval forces have been conducted once every five years since 1981. The exact participants and equipment this year are as yet unannounced, but in the 2006 Indonesia-Malaysia drill, Malaysia contributed more than 1,100 soldiers, three C-130 Hercules aircraft, and a number of warplanes and warships; Indonesia dispatched over 3,800 soldiers, seven warships, more than 20 military aircraft, and a number of tanks and armored troop carriers. The officials from both countries state that the drills play an important role in peacekeeping and addressing threats of terrorism. (Antara News, Sina News, Xinhua)

 

KOREA: South Korea rejects DPRK's proposal to hold joint event

Last Wednesday, South Korea rejected North Korea (DPRK)'s proposal to hold joint events to commemorate the 13th anniversary of the landmark June 15 Declaration. The following Tuesday, the DPRK urged South Korea to allow private organizations to participate in joint events; however, South Korea insisted both countries should first agree on the issue concerning the breakdown in cooperative operations in the Kaesong Industry Zone (KIZ), before moving forward with the joint events. Comment:  The KIZ, which was established in 2004 and had been a symbol of cooperation between the two Koreas, is facing the worst crisis since its establishment. Located inside DPRK near the border, the zone employs more than 50,000 North Korean workers, but is funded and managed by South Korean firms. In April, the DPRK withdrew its workers from the KIZ, suspended operations there, and banned South Koreans from entering the zone. Analysts believe that the disagreement regarding the joint events may worsen the KIZ crisis, cause future conflicts, and increase the unemployment rates in both nations. (BBC News, Xinhua, Yonhap News Agency)

 

REGIONAL: Asia-Pacific countries discuss energy issues in Russia

Approximately 140 representatives from more than 30 Asia-Pacific countries gathered in Vladivostok Russia from May 27 to 30, to discuss pan-regional energy challenges at the Asian and Pacific Energy Forum (APEF). The forum was organized by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), with the support of the Government of the Russian Federation.  With the stated mission of "Shaping the Future of Sustainable Energy in Asia and the Pacific," the forum highlighted the importance of cooperation among Asia-Pacific countries in solving energy security problems. The four-day forum discussed regional cooperation for enhanced energy security and sustainable use of energy. Comment: APEF is the first Asia-Pacific region-wide intergovernmental ministerial meeting on energy convened by the United Nations. In order to realize enhanced energy security in Asia and the Pacific, ESCAP used the forum to draw attention to seven focus areas, including access to energy, energy efficiency, renewable energy, energy and environment, energy economics, trade and investment, and connectivity. The next APEF forum will be hosted by Tonga in 2018. (Islamic Republic News Agency, President of Russia, Xinhua) 

 

BELGIUM: EU terminates arms embargo to Syrian rebels

On Monday evening, the European Union elected not to extend the embargo on sending arms to Syrian rebels. Despite opposition from several key members such as Germany, Austria and Sweden, the proposal was pushed through by France and the United Kingdom. The supporters of ending the arms embargo maintain that Monday's action is simply granting the right to send arms if need be, and that they have no plans to send arms immediately upon the expiration of the bans on Saturday. In order to renew the embargo, the EU would have needed unanimous consent. Comment: This episode not only revealed the fractured nature of foreign policy within the EU, but also the tenuous nature of the situation in Syria. Russia responded almost immediately to the decision with plans to send anti-aircraft missiles to the Syrian government to ensure foreign powers remained standoffish of the situation in Syria, the status quo that Russia appears thus far to prefer. (BBC News, Spiegel, The Daily Telegraph).

 

NETHERLANDS: Six former Croat leaders of Bosnia convicted of war crimes

Jadranko Prlic, the former leader of the self-declared Croat mini-state of Herceg-Bosna in Bosnia, was found guilty of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed during the Balkans wars in the 1990s. His fellow leaders, former defence minister, Bruno Stojic, former militia heads Slobodan Praljak and Milivoj Petkovic, former commander of the Bosnian Croat military police Valentin Coric, and former head of prisoner exchanges and detention facilities Berislav Pusic, were also convicted. The six men are expected to file an appeal. This trial, which started in 2006, is the longest case handled by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY). Comment: The shortest sentence was ten years for Pusic, while the longest of 25 years was handed to Prlic. The defendants had willingly surrendered themselves to ICTY's custody in 2004. (Radio Free Europe, BBC News, Al Jazeera).

 

UNITED KINGDOM: Suspect charged in murder of Drummer Rigby

A week after the murder of 25-year-old British soldier Drummer Lee Rigby in south-east London, one of two prime suspects, 22-year-old Michael Adebowale of Greenwich, was officially charged with murder and possession of a firearm early Thursday. Adebowale has been discharged from hospital while the second prime suspect, 28-year-old Michael Adebolajo, remains under arrest in a London hospital and is reported to be in stable condition. At least eight further arrests have been made in connection to the murder, of whom two have been released without charge and six have been released on bail. Comment: While investigations are still underway, the authorities are considering the murder itself a potential act of terrorism, the first in the U.K. since the July 7, 2005 bombing. Videos of the suspects' explanations taken by witnesses have gone viral, linking their motives to the imposition of British forces in Muslim states. An attack on a French soldier three days later on Saturday has also heightened fears of further low-tech copycat incidents. (BBC News, France 24, ITV News).

 

Researched/Written by Takumi Imagawa

IRAQ: Wave of attacks makes May deadliest month in more than a year

Violence throughout Iraq continued this week, killing at least 66 people in a series of car bombings in mostly Shiite areas around Baghdad on Monday alone. On Tuesday, Prime Minister al-Maliki reaffirmed the determination of his cabinet to "chase down" instigators of sectarian strife, following his earlier order to reshuffle senior security officials in reaction to the worsening security situation. Comment: Since the beginning of May, more than 530 people have been killed and 1,300 wounded, leaving almost 1,000 people dead in less than two months. No one has claimed responsibility for the recent attacks, but Sunni insurgents associated with al-Qaeda in Iraq are suspected to be behind the attacks on Shiite communities. Members of Iraq's Sunni minority have been protesting against the Shiite-led government since December last year, accusing it of systematic discrimination and marginalization. (Daily Star, Al Arabiya, Al Jazeera, Saudi Gazette)

 

LEBANON/SYRIA: Hizballah leader Nasrallah admits role in Syrian civil war

Hizballah chief Nasrallah's first public pledge on Saturday to bring "victory" to Assad prompted the Free Syrian Army (FSA) to issue an ultimatum on Tuesday, announcing it would "take all measures to hunt Hizballah" if the attacks within Syria did not stop within 24 hours. Two rockets exploded in Southern Beirut on Sunday, and three Lebanese soldiers were killed near the Syrian border on Tuesday; these events are assumed to be a reaction to Nasrallah's speech, although the FSA denied any responsibility. In spite of the ultimatum, more Hizballah fighters and Syrian government troops were sent to Al Qusayr on Wednesday in order to recapture the Western border town from the rebels. Comment: The battle for the Syrian town of Al Qusayr has lasted for more than a week; the town is of strategic importance to both sides of the conflict since it links Damascus with the coast and serves as a transit point for weapons and fighters. The open involvement of Hizballah with almost 2,000 fighters in Al Qusayr increases the risk of a sectarian conflict in the region between the Shiite militant group and the predominantly Sunni rebels. (Al Arabiya, gulfnews.com, Al Arabiya)

 

SYRIA: Regime "in principle" willing to participate in Geneva peace talks

On Sunday, Syria's Foreign Minister Walid Muallem signaled the willingness of his government to participate in an international peace conference organized by the United States and Russia, planned to be held in Geneva next month. At the end of its general assembly meeting in Istanbul this week, the Syrian National Coalition, the principal Syrian opposition group, announced that it would not take part in any peace talks until the international community intervened to stop the killings. Disagreement prevailed over a new leadership, as well as the extent to which the coalition should be enlarged to include a liberal opposition bloc headed by Michel Kilo. Comment: Western and Arab nations, particularly Saudi Arabia, favor a broader and more balanced coalition in which the Muslim Brotherhood and Qatar take a smaller role. Failure of the opposition to find common ground not only jeopardizes international support but also strengthens the Assad regime, whose troops are continuing their offensive on the strategically important town of Al Qusayr, killing at least 40 people during a shelling on Saturday. (Al Jazeera, Al Arabiya, Daily Star)

 

Researched/Written by Anke Rehfeld