IPSI's Peace & Security Report (PSR) is a concise weekly e-publication intended to brief busy students, academics, advocates, and practitioners in the conflict management community on pertinent global news, events, and trends.  Meticulously researched and written by IPSI, the PSR empowers us all to take a step back from our immediate deadlines each Friday and gain a greater understanding of the week's global events.

Harvard Kennedy School

 

 

The Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts, taken together, will be the most expensive wars in US history - totaling somewhere between $4 to $6 trillion. This includes long-term medical care and disability compensation for service members, veterans and families, military replenishment and social and economic costs. The largest portion of that bill is yet to be paid. Since 2001, the US has expanded the quality, quantity, availability and eligibility of benefits for military personnel and veterans. This has led to unprecedented growth in the Department of Veterans Affairs and the Department of Defense budgets. These benefits will increase further over the next 40 years. Additional funds are committed to replacing large quantities of basic equipment used in the wars and to support ongoing diplomatic presence and military assistance in the Iraq and Afghanistan region. The large sums borrowed to finance operations in Iraq and Afghanistan will also impose substantial long-term debt servicing costs. As a consequence of these wartime spending choices, the United States will face constraints in funding investments in personnel and diplomacy, research and development and new military initiatives. The legacy of decisions taken during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars will dominate future federal budgets for decades to come. 

 

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BRAZIL: Foreign tourist raped on Rio de Janeiro minibus

On Sunday, three men attacked a foreign couple on a minibus in the Copacabana neighborhood of Rio de Janiero. After forcing the other passengers off, the men raped the female tourist while handcuffing and beating her male companion. Subsequently, the couple was also forced to withdraw money from their bank accounts before being abandoned in the nearby city of Itaborai. Initially, local police did not release the identities or nationalities of the victims, but the U.S. Embassy confirmed on Monday that one of the two was an American citizen.  This event raises security concerns among international and local communities, considering that the Brazilian city of Rio will host the 2014 World Cup as well as the 2016 Summer Olympics. Comment: Although robberies are a common occurrence on buses in Rio de Janeiro and other big Brazilian cities, the violent nature of the attack raises particular concern among the local community. (BBC, CNN, ABC).

 

COLOMBIA: Clash between the indigenous Nasa Tribe and the Army continues

On Tuesday, a group of indigenous Colombians from the Nasa tribe released the three soldiers they had been holding for 24 hours under the suspicion of assassinating Alvaro Chocue, one of the tribe's leaders. According to local authorities, the Nasa agreed to free them only after the army promised to thoroughly investigate the death of Chocue and proceed with the military penalty if convicted. The soldiers said Chocue was shot in crossfire with left-wing rebels; however, the Nasa suspect he was killed at an army checkpoint. Comment: Tension between the Nasa and the military began last July when the indigenous group demanded that all armed men (left-wing rebels, right-wing paramilitaries, police and army) leave their land. The indigenous group says army checkpoints are prone to rebel attacks, heightening the chance of the Nasa being caught in crossfire. (BBC, ANN, WN, El Tiempo)

 

VENEZUELA: Maduro and Capriles in the race to become Chavez's successor

On Tuesday, the short presidential campaign to replace Chavez formally kicked off in Sabaneta, almost one month after Chavez succumbed to cancer on March 5. According to local media, polls suggest Maduro has a lead of 14 points over Capriles, with the remaining five candidates for the presidency trailing significantly behind. The elections are slated to be held on April 14. Comment: During his 14 years in power, Chavez developed a vast media apparatus consisting of at least five television broadcast channels, two newspapers, and dozens of local radio stations carrying the government's message. Maduro has been taking advantage of this media machine, vowing to carry on his mentor's socialist legacy, invoking the memory of Chavez and calling himself his son and apostle. The opposition candidate, Capriles, has accused his rival of unfairly using state media and money in his campaign, stating that in free and fair balloting, candidates should have the same access and the same rights. (BBC, Al Jazeera, El Universal)

 

CHINA: New avian flu infects humans

A form of avian flu called H7N9 has infected 14 people and has caused the death of five in Shanghai and neighboring cities; the age of patients ranges from mid-20's to mid-80's, with one four-year-old child infected. The outbreak does not appear to be related to the 15,000 pig carcasses found in the Huangpu River in mid-March; the Shanghai Animal Disease Prevention and Control Center tested 34 pig carcasses and none tested positive for the H7N9 virus. Authorities in China ordered hospitals to increase H7N9 monitoring and testing, as well as to report pneumonia cases with unknown causes. Comment: The World Health Organization (WHO) expressed concern since this is the first time the H7N9 virus has affected humans, however, as of yet it does not seem this flu is communicable between humans, only from birds to birds or birds to humans. This most recent avian flu is reminiscent of the 2003 H1N1 virus outbreak, which killed 360 people of 8,000 infected worldwide. China initially attempted to conceal H1N1, and the response to H7N9 reveals a changed approach to health safety. (Reuters, Xinhua, South China Morning Post)

 

MALAYSIA: Prime Minister dissolves parliament and announces elections 

On Wednesday, Prime Minister Najib Razak dissolved parliament and called for national elections that will likely happen April 27. PM Razak's party, the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), has ruled for 56 years since Malaysia's independence from Britain in 1957, but this is the first time that the opposition party, a coalition between secular ethnic Chinese and Islamists, has a chance to challenge the power of UMNO. Malaysians increasingly disagree with UMNO's race-based politics that favor ethnic Malays over minorities. Comment: According to the constitution, Malaysia was slated to have elections by June of 2013, and the uncertainty regarding election outcomes has caused Malaysia's stock market to decline due to investors' fears. Following the election announcement, Razak stated that if his party's legislative coalition, the National Front (BN), is re-elected he will continue to pursue his "national vision," an ambitious USD 444 billion dollar economic plan to make Malaysia a high-income nation by 2020. In his blog, Razak stated that the country's transformation is based on national unity regardless of race or religion. (NY Times, Reuters, Bernama)

 

TIBET: Death toll at 66 after mine collapse

Last Friday, an avalanche at the Gyama mine buried alive 83 miners, 66 of whom were confirmed deceased on Wednesday after rescue teams worked through two miles of debris in search of survivors, while 17 miners remain missing. The Gyama mine located to the east of Lhasa, the region's capital, is one of the largest in Tibet and provides copper, gold, and molybdenum, mineral resources that are crucial for China's economic growth as they are used in electronics. The government has hesitated to report the cause of the collapse. Comment: Local Tibetans resent mining operations because of the environmental degradation and the hazards for workers. The Gyama site is especially contentious because it is revered as the birthplace of Tibet's first king, and the mine has forced nomads to relocate. Due to loose rocks, mountains in Tibet are prone to landslides, which are exacerbated by mining. Extractive industries have increased in the region following the completion of a rail line connecting Tibet to neighboring Qinghai province in China, attracting millions of dollars in foreign investment. (Xinhua, NY Times, South China Morning Post)

 

REGIONAL: North Korea blocks access to Kaesong Industrial Complex 

On Wednesday morning, about 484 South Korean (ROK) workers were not allowed to cross the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) to enter North Korea (DPRK) and work at the jointly owned Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC). South Korean employees on site are allowed to leave, and 50 workers returned to the ROK, but 815 chose to remain at the factory to continue operations and prevent revenue loss. The South Korean government maintains contact with the employees through separate communication channels.  Comments: This is not the first time the KIC has been jeopardized; in 2009 the DPRK closed KIC three times and at one point stopped operation for three days. The eight-year-old factory produced USD 470 million worth of goods in 2012 and employs about 53,000 North Koreans. The South Korean Ministry of Unification urges the DPRK government to normalize KIC cooperation, which symbolizes inter-Korean relations. North Korea also announced on Tuesday plans to reactivate the Yongban nuclear plant, and on Thursday, moved a missile to the east coast. In response, the U.S. deployed an advanced missile defense system to Guam two years ahead of schedule. Also on Tuesday, in a meeting with ROK foreign minister, Yun Byung-se in Washington, DC, Secretary of State John Kerry warned North Korea to desist its reckless behavior and re-confirmed the U.S.'s commitment to defend the ROK and itself. (Daily NK, Korea Herald, NY Times)

 

SERBIA/KOSOVO: Talks fail to reach an agreement

On Wednesday, the eighth round of talks between Serbian Prime Minister Ivica Dacic and Kosovar Prime Minister Hashim Thaci broke down. The proposal put forward by Prime Minister Dacic calls for the creation of Serbian municipalities in Kosovo. This sparked protests among Albanians in southern Kosovo on Saturday, who argued that such an establishment would open an array of other issues concerning regions that are predominantly Albanian. Comment: Northern Kosovo is divided along ethnic lines, and much of the conflict concerns whether Serb-dominated regions should fall under the authority of the Pristina government in Kosovo or the authority of the Belgrade government in Serbia. In 2008, Kosovo, a former Serbian province, declared independence, but Serbia has not formally recognized Kosovo as an independent country. The talks between Serbia and Kosovo suggested that a political solution may be feasible; however, such a solution could exacerbate the root issues and fail to normalize relations between the countries as well as the people affected. (AP, Reuters, Al Jazeera, Financial Time)

 

TURKEY: Consultative body established

On Wednesday, the Turkish government announced the establishment of a consultative body of "wise people," who will work together to shape public opinion regarding the Turkish-Kurdish peace process. The commission will be composed of 63 prominent members from society, including artists and representatives from non-governmental organization, among others, and was formed to find creative peaceful solutions to the Turkish-Kurdish conflict.  This move is in response to the Kurdistan Workers' Party's (PKK) implementing a unilateral ceasefire last month. The PKK has made requests for legal protection against attacks from Turkish troops before the peace process can move forward; however, on Monday, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan, stated that any legal protection conflicts with legislation, and stressed the importance of disarming before withdrawing from Turkish territory, claiming that this would remove the risk of potential outbreaks of violence. The PKK rejected Erdoğan's requests for disarmament, thereby sending the peace process into political and legal limbo. Comment: The 63 "wise people" members will be divided up in seven groups, each representing a different geographical region within Turkey; these groups are expected to hold conferences, panel discussions, and symposiums while engaging with local, national, and international media. (Reuters, Voice of America, Hurriyet Daily News, Daily Star, Hurriyet Daily News).  

 

REGIONAL: European forces to train Malian soldiers

The European Union Training Mission (EUTM) in Mali, headed by the French general Francois Lecointre, formally began the process of training and improving all four battalions in the Malian army on Tuesday. The mission aims to have the first battalion, which includes close to 700 Malian soldiers, combat-ready by the summer in order to replace the French troops as they prepare to withdraw. At the same time, the UN is in the process of setting up a peacekeeping mandate that may include African forces; however, the EUTM will not be incorporated in the UN operations. Comment: In February, EUTM sent officers to investigate the current state of the Malian army. EUTM is set to operate for one year with a budget of EUR 12.3 million; the mission faces a disorganized Malian army with a lack of adequate equipment. While the exact number of Malian soldiers is unknown, the EUTM will aim to train close to 3,000 soldiers; the 550-strong EUTM will not engage in combat operations. (BBC, France24, Deutsche Welle).

 

Researched/Written by Caroline Larsson

IRAQ: Deadly strikes continue as elections near

On Sunday, two explosions, one targeting a military checkpoint in the Abu Ghraib province, killed four people and wounded 14 others in Baghdad. On the following day, a suicide bomber exploded a tanker truck at a police compound in the city of Tikrit, killing nine people and wounding at least 11 others. Most of those killed on Monday were police officers. The police and military are favored targets for Sunni opposition fighters who want to undermine the government's security measures. Comment: The continuing attacks come as provincial elections are planned for April 20 in 12 of the 18 provinces, and there is a growing fear that the attacks will escalate as the elections draw nearer. There is also the concern that violence will continue to grow as the neighboring Syrian conflict continues to worsen. The Syrian conflict has problematized Iraq's security measures by empowering the country's al-Qaeda affiliate, the Islamic State of Iraq, who has reported ties with some of Syria's opposition forces. March was Iraq's deadliest month since August 2012 with 267 reported deaths. (Al Jazeera, Saudi Gazette, Reuters)

 

LEBANON/SYRIA: Syrian helicopter attacks Lebanese town

On Wednesday, a Syrian helicopter flew 20km into Lebanon to the town of Arsal and fired two rockets at a supposed smuggling route; however, no casualties were reported. The Eastern Bekka Valley, the area around Arsal, is known for smuggling goods to Syrian opposition forces. Arsal also houses around 20,000 Syrian refugees and its residents are predominantly Sunni Muslims who oppose Assad's regime. The government in Damascus has denied responsibility for the attack. Comment: Less than two hours after the attack, Syrian tanks fired shells back into the region, killing seven sheep. This week's attacks are the latest in a series of incidents that have violated Lebanese sovereignty. Last month, there were reports of Syrian air strikes in Lebanon which were denounced by Lebanese President Michel Sleiman as an "unacceptable violation." In the past week, Syrian planes have increased their flights along the Syria-Lebanon border as the tension between the two countries grows. (Al Jazeera, BBC, Daily Star)

 

PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES: Hamas re-elects Khaled Meshaal

On Monday, Hamas leaders met in Cairo and re-elected the group's veteran leader, Khaled Meshaal, to remain as Hamas' political office chief. Meshaal has headed the group in exile since 1996, and he is backed by the regional powers of Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey. According to officials at the meeting, Meshaal received the majority of the votes from Hamas' Shura Council. Comment: Meshaal's re-election has stirred hopes that reconciliation talks could resume with Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian President in the West Bank. His re-election, however, was not well-received by Assad's government in Syria who accused Hamas of taking a step back on its resistance to Israel by bringing back Meshaal as its leader. There has been increasing tension between Assad's government and Meshaal's Hamas since Meshaal moved his base of operations from Damascus to Doha in February 2012. (Al Arabiya, Al Jazeera, BBC)

 

Researched/Written by Kevin Coughlin