IPSI's Peace & Security Report (PSR) is a concise weekly e-publication intended to brief busy students, academics, advocates, and practitioners in the conflict management community on pertinent global news, events, and trends.  Meticulously researched and written by IPSI, the PSR empowers us all to take a step back from our immediate deadlines each Friday and gain a greater understanding of the week's global events.

International Crisis Group: 2013 Annual Report

 

If 2011 was characterised by the anticipation of states emerging from authoritarian rule, 2012 has revealed the numerous pitfalls facing countries in transition. While such change cannot be expected to come easily, events of the past year in Egypt, Myanmar, and Sudan have demonstrated how the promise of change often brings about increased violence, social unrest, and economic trauma. And as the fighting continues in Syria, the prospect of regime change there sadly seems far from realisation, as both sides radicalise ever further with no hope, as I write this, of a political resolution to the conflict in sight.

 

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GUATEMALA: Country's first genocide trial

On Tuesday, the former dictator, Efrain Rios Montt, was brought before the first genocide trial in the history of Guatemala to face accusations of genocide and crimes against humanity. According to prosecutors, Mr. Rios Montt authorized 15 massacres of indigenous Mayans between 1982 and 1983 in the northwestern region of Quiche, and in total, more than 1,700 were killed. Comment: Mr Rios Montt seized power in a March 23, 1982 coup d'état, and ruled for one year until he was overthrown.  While in power, prosecutors argue that he was aware of the slaughter of subordinates, and thereby responsible for the operations that ultimately killed at least 1,711 Mayas in San Juan Cotzal, San Gaspar Chajul, and Santa Maria Nebaj towns. (ABC News, CNN, Al Jazeera)  

 

VENEZUELA: First reports of violence in run-up to presidential elections

Violent clashes between anti-government protestors and supporters of the late President Chavez led police to fire tear gas at demonstrators in Caracas on Thursday. The demonstration began peacefully as several hundred students marched to the election council headquarters to demand elections free of influence by civilian militias when they were attacked by government supporters throwing rocks and bottles. This is the first reported outbreak of violence since the announcement that presidential elections will be held on April 14. Comment: As the election date approaches, both presidential candidates, Vice President Nicolas Maduro and opposition leader Henrique Capriles, have been trading personal accusations as they try to rally their supporters. Maduro has accused the student protesters supporting Capriles of having ties to U.S. diplomats that were expelled the day of Chavez's death for conspiring with the Venezuelan military. Following in Chavez's footsteps, accusations of conspiracy against the U.S. have formed a major portion of Maduro's campaign for the presidency. (Bloomberg, El Universal, Reuters, Washington Post)

 

REGIONAL: China invests USD 2.5 billion in Latin America investment fund

Last Saturday, the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) and the People's Bank of China (PBC) approved a China Co-financing Fund for Latin America and the Caribbean. The fund will support public and private sector projects to promote sustainable economic growth in the region. The contribution, which will be available for the next three-to-six years, will assist to co-finance up to USD 500 million in IADB public sector loans and up to  USD 1.5 billion in private sector credit. According to the IADB president Luis Alberto Moreno, China is a key partner for the Bank's mission to alleviate poverty and inequality in the region. Comment: China has invested tens of billions of dollars in the region, from Mexico to Argentina, over the last decade. For China, this could be seen as an economic tactic to acquire strategic assets or companies in sectors such as oil, minerals, and food products. (Strait Times, Reuters, IADB.org) 

 

 

AUSTRALIA: Myanmar President visits, solidifies ties between two nations

On Monday, Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard welcomed President Thein Sein to Canberra, the first head of state from Myanmar (Burma) to visit Australia since 1974. Gillard pledged USD 20.7 million over two years in order to support the nation's transition to democracy through increased trade, limited military cooperation, and humanitarian aid; the arms embargo, which prohibits technical advice, assistance, and training between militaries, would remain in place. Critics of Sein accuse the government of persecuting ethnic minorities, such as the Muyslim Rohingya; 50 diaspora Rohingyas living in Sydney traveled to protest peacefully outside the Parliament house. Comment: Since Myanmar's democratic reforms in 2011, foreign nations have lifted sanctions and increased trade. Sein stated that his country is undergoing an unparalleled transformation to "peace, democracy, and prosperity" and asked for understanding during this time. Opposition leader and activist Aung San Suu Kyi expressed disappointment that Australia and other nations refer to Burma as Myanmar, and stated that foreign nations should support people in the country rather than focusing on the government. (Canberra Times, Aljazeera, AP)

 

CHINA: Thousands of dead pigs dredged out of Shanghai River

The total number of pig carcasses pulled from the Hangpu River over the past two weeks is estimated at 15,000. In Shanghai alone, 10,164 pig carcasses were fished from the river, while reports vary from 6,000 to 10,000 pigs found in the waters near Jiaxing, a city in the adjoining Zhejiang Province. Samples of pigs tested positive for porcine cirovirus, a swine disease that does not affect humans, but the government attributes the livestock death to cold weather. Comment: Ear tags on the animals indicate they were born in Jiaxing, but neither Shanghai nor Jiaxing have opened formal investigations, and there is still no definitive answer as to where the pigs came from, much to the ire of the general public. Huangpu River is the source of 22 percent of Shanghai's drinking water, and the city government stated that the water has not been contaminated and that meat from the pigs is not in the markets. (South China Morning Post, Aljazeera, Xinhua)

 

SOUTH KOREA: Major media networks and banks shut down by cyber attack

On Wednesday afternoon, three South Korean (ROK) banks and two national public broadcasters were paralyzed by cyber-attacks, shutting down about 32,000 computers for several hours. President Park Geun-hye responded by creating a joint military-civil response team, and the Korean Internet and Security Agency launched an investigation. The service provider networks were not affected and continued to operate, but commerce was disrupted, leaving people unable to use their bank cards or withdraw cash from ATMs. Comment: Shinhan and Nonghyup banks reported that their customer information was not compromised. Many suspect North Korea (DPRK) as a perpetrator in the cyber-attack, and the event occurs amid rising tensions on the Korean peninsula after new UN sanctions against the DPRK and fiery rhetoric from Pyongyang. No government or military computers were targeted, but internet security company McAfee Inc. accused North Korean sympathizers of cyber-attacks against ROK government computers in 2011 and hackings of the U.S. government in 2009. South Korea's National Intelligence Service, however, states that the DPRK is responsible for just 6 of 73,000 cyber-attacks since 2008. (NY Times, Korea Hearld, AP)  

 

CYPRUS: Potential Russian bailout

On Tuesday, the government of Greek Cyprus rejected a EUR 10 billion bailout package from the European Union (EU) with conditions that would require the government to raise an additional six billion euros through bank deposit seizures. On Wednesday, President Nicos Anastasiades held an emergency meeting with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the European Commission, and the EU set next Monday as the decision deadline before the ECB will shut off low-cost bank funding. At the same time, Cypriot finance minister Michalis Sarris met with Russian finance minister Anton Siluanov to discuss a potential five billion euro bailout deal. Comment: In 2011, Russia loaned 2.5 billion euros to Cyprus, and if a forthcoming bailout is agreed upon, Russia may agree to lower the interest rate on this loan. Members of the Eurozone have expressed concerns and are hoping that a "Plan B" will be agreed upon within a few days, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel stating that it is the "duty of the Eurozone to find a solution." (BBC, AP, Reuters, NY Times, Al Jazeera)

 

FRANCE: Report on hostage executed in Mali not verified

On Tuesday, the Mauritania Nouakchott Information Agency (ANI) released a report  stating that al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has beheaded Philippe Verdon, one of 15 French nationals kidnapped by Islamist groups in Africa. Verdon was kidnapped in November 2011 in Hombori, a town about 100 miles from the regional capital Gao. In the report, Ghairawani, an alleged spokesman for AQIM revealed that Mr. Verdon was executed on March 11 in retaliation for the French intervention in Mali in January 2013. The French Foreign Ministry in Paris said that the report has not yet been verified, but they are conducting an investigation. Comment: Since the French intervention began in January 2013, the kidnapping of French nationals has intensified. France reported on Tuesday that 15 Islamist fighters had been killed in the town of Gao where resistance still exists, and with the French aiming to withdraw in April, there are sources expressing concern as to what will happen in the region. (BBC, AP, France 24, Al Jazeera)

 

TURKEY: Attacks on administration office as a ceasefire is to be implemented

On Tuesday, two buildings in Ankara, the Justice Ministry and the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) headquarters were attacked with grenades, leaving at least one person injured. The following day, the Revolutionary People's Liberation Party-Front (DHKP-C), an organization outlawed in Turkey and labeled by the West as a terrorist group, claimed responsibility, arguing that these attacks were in response to recent Turkish security crackdowns on DHKP-C members. Comment: The DHKP-C was responsible for the bombing of the U.S. embassy in Ankara on February 1. These attacks have occurred at a time many thought violence in Turkey was decreasing. The government and Abdullah Oçalan, the jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), have been engaging in peace talks since October of last year, and announced a ceasefire on Thursday that could potentially lead to an end to a 28-year conflict. (AP, Al Jazeera, Hurriyet Daily News, the Guardian)

 

Researched/Written by Caroline Larsson

IRAQ: Explosions sweep through Baghdad

On Tuesday, at least 61 people were killed and over 200 were injured after a series of 20 bombings struck two Shi'ite Muslim districts in Baghdad. The attacks, which targeted small restaurants and local bus stops, were claimed by the Islamic State of Iraq, an al-Qaeda affiliate, as protest to the Shi'ite headed government. The attacks occurred on the 10th anniversary of the U.S. led invasion to oust Saddam Hussein from power. Comment: Iraqi officials say the attacks are meant to demonstrate the government's inability to provide security and to deepen tensions between Sunnis and Shiites; and although violence has dropped considerably since 2006-2007 when violence was at its peak, many Iraqis fear that the recent wave of violence may divide the country once more. Some Iraqi officials have stated a belief that the Islamic State of Iraq is trying to piggyback off of the Syrian conflict to create a similar situation within Iraq. (Al Jazeera, Al Arabiya, CNN)

 

ISRAEL: Prime Minister Netanyahu forms coalition government

Over the weekend, Netanyahu's Likud-Yisrael alliance signed a coalition agreement with the Yesh Atid Party and the Jewish Home. For the first time in a decade, there will be no ultra-orthodox groups represented in the government, and there will only be 22 ministers - the smallest amount the country has seen in decades. The new Security Council, which makes decisions including Iran's nuclear programs, the country's relationship with Palestinians, and general military operations, was reduced on Monday from 15 to seven ministers. Comment: Haaretz reports that the new coalition is not ideal for Netanyahu as his new partners, Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett, could attempt to unseat him at any time. Since there are no longer any ultra-orthodox representatives in the coalition, some believe that the government may shift to the left. (Al Arabiya, Haaretz, BBC)

 

SYRIA: Syrian opposition appoints provisional PM

On Tuesday, the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) elected Ghassan Hito as the provisional prime minister for the rebel held areas of the country. Hito had been residing in the United States where he worked for telecommunication companies for the past 25 years until he recently moved to Turkey to help coordinate aid to the Syrian rebel force. Hito won the election, which was held in Istanbul, by receiving 35 of the 48 votes in a process that was described as both transparent and democratic. He is expected to form a cabinet within the next two to four weeks. Comment: The motive for the election stems from the belief that there should be an alternative authority other than Assad's regime. The SNC's intends for the interim government to be able to directly communicate with the people of the rebel-held areas, so that some of their needs can be met. Some members of the SNC, however, are opposed to the formation of an alternative government, as they believe the conflict can only be solved through dialogue with Assad's government to form a unified national government. (Al Jazeera, Al Arabiya, BBC)  

 

Researched/Written by Kevin Coughlin