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PEACE & SECURITY REPORT
IPSI's Peace & Security Report (PSR) is a concise weekly e-publication intended to brief busy students, academics, advocates, and practitioners in the conflict management community on pertinent global news, events, and trends.  Meticulously researched and written by IPSI, the PSR empowers us all to take a step back from our immediate deadlines each Friday and gain a greater understanding of the week's global events.
Featured Article 

The future of the African Union Mission in Somalia

Rift Valley Institute

 

AMISOM, the African Union Mission in Somalia, is in a period of transition. Six years after it was deployed and after a year of military successes, the African Union force finds itself in a new political and international context. The new President of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has emphasized that the provision of security is his government's priority. He has also raised a fundamental question about the sustainability of AMISOM. 'How many more years can AMISOM be in Somalia?' he asked in an interview with the Rift Valley Institute on 3 February 2013. 'We are expecting that old practices will be changed... We are the Somali government and we determine the type of assistance we want, and where and when we want it.'

 

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Africa 

COTE D'IVOIRE: Confirmation of charges hearings begin for Laurent Gbagbo

On Tuesday, week-long confirmation of charges hearings began in The Hague for former president of Cote D'Ivoire, Laurent Gbagbo. He faces four counts of crimes against humanity, including murder and rape, for his role in the violence following the 2010-11 elections in which Gbagbo refused to leave office after losing to current president Alassane Outtara. Gbagbo is the first former African head of state to be tried at the ICC. Comment: The confirmation of charges hearings are pre-trial hearings that will determine if the prosecutor has enough evidence to move forward with the case. Currently, only Gbagbo and the first lady, Simone Gbagbo, have been charged in the case, and supporters feel that he has become a "scapegoat" for violence committed by numerous parties following the election. Human rights groups have pressed ICC lead prosecutor Fatou Bensouda to investigate other suspects, including supporters of Outtara that also committed crimes following the election. (Al Jazeera, Hirondelle News Agency, Think Africa Press, Voice of America)

 

KENYA: Chief Justice threatened following High Court ruling

On February 15, the Kenyan High Court ruled that it did not have the authority to decide whether current Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, who faces impending ICC charges of crimes against humanity, is eligible to run for president. Following the ruling, Chief Kenyan Justice Willy Mutunga received a letter signed by the Mungiki Veterans Group and the Kenya Sovereignty Defense Squad warning of "dire consequences" if Kenyatta is banned from participating in the March 4 elections. Five other members of the court have also been threatened and harassed this election cycle. Comment: The groups that claim responsibility for the letter had not been widely known before this incident. The term "Mungiki" broadly refers to an illegal criminal gang composed largely of members of the Kikuyu ethnic majority, Kenyatta's ethnic group. Kenyatta is accused of using the Mungiki to carry out violence following the 2007 presidential elections but his political party, the Jubilee Coalition, has condemned the threats. (BBC, Bloomberg, The Star)

 

ZIMBABWE: EU lifts sanctions on Zimbabwe

On Monday, the European Union (EU) removed sanctions that restricted travel and banking from 21 Mugabe loyalists and travel bans only from six ZANU-PF ministers. The removal of these sanctions is considered a reward for a "step forward" towards finalizing a draft constitution to be voted on in a national referendum on March 16. The sanctions were imposed on members of President Mugabe's party, the ZANU-PF, to protest human rights violations over the past decade. Comment: There are still 91 individuals and 10 companies on the sanctions list. There is speculation that the Zimbabwe Mining Development Corporation could be dropped from the list, but this will be dependent upon the progress towards the draft constitution. If dropped from the sanction list, this would benefit the Belgians who could begin to trade in Zimbabwean Chiadzwa diamonds. Critics claim the EU is putting their own economic interests ahead of the promotion of human rights in Zimbabwe. (Al Jazeera, The Herald, SW Radio Africa)

 

Researched/Written by Janene Sawers

Americas

COLOMBIA: FARC rebels release hostage

Last Saturday in Nari�o, a department in southwest Colombia, FARC rebels released a soldier who was held captive for nearly three weeks to a mission of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). Local media stated that the incident was an apparent goodwill gesture ahead of the next round of peace negotiations with the government. Last year, the rebels pledged to cease kidnapping for ransom activities and released 10 policemen and soldiers who had been part of a group of about 60 hostages held for political reasons since the 1990s.  Comment: The development comes amid ongoing peace talks in Cuba between FARC and the Colombian government to end Latin America's longest-running insurgency. President Santos set November 2013 as the deadline for concluding the peace process. (CNN, Reuters, BBC)

 

ECUADOR: Correa wins third presidential term

Last Sunday, according to a statement of the National Electoral Council,  Ecuadorian President Correa was re-elected for a third term with more than 56 percent of the voteDuring his six years in power, President Correa implemented social programs by expanding access to healthcare and education, as well as road building projects. For his new term, he has pledged to continue signature social programs and to pass laws concerning the news media, land reform, and the penal code. Comment: During his time in power, Correa  directed Ecuador into membership in the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (Alianza Bolivariana para los Pueblos de Nuestra Am�rica-ALBA), organization established to enhance economic integration and cooperation between Bolivia, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Cuba, Surinam and the Caribbean Islands of Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Saint Lucia. (Al Jazeera, La Times, The Guardian, BBC).

 

VENEZUELA: President Chavez returns home from Cuba

President Chavez made a surprise return to Venezuela on Monday and is now being treated at a military hospital in Caracas. Government officials said in recent weeks that it was not clear when the president's medical team would allow him to return to Venezuela, so many in the region were surprised by the news. Comment: President Ch�vez was reelected for a new six-year term in October 2012. His inauguration was scheduled for January 10, but was postponed indefinitely due to his condition after the surgery. The 58-year-old president has not spoken publicly since he left for Cuba on December 10. He underwent his fourth cancer-related surgery the following day, and the government says he is now breathing through a tracheal tube that makes talking difficult. (Al Jazeera, CNN, The Guardian,  Huffington Post ).

 

Researched/Written by Ana Maria Rodriguez Contreras

 

East Asia

MALAYSIA: Australian senator deported upon arrival

Nick Xenophon, an independent Australian senator, was deported after arrival in Kuala Lampur on Saturday. Xenophon made the unofficial trip to Malaysia to investigate the country's electoral system and meet with opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim and political activists whom he did not see. After a sixteen hour detainment during which he was interrogated, Xenophon returned to Australia on Monday and is indefinitely barred from entering Malaysia. The senator is associated with a local reform organization, Coalition for Clean and Fair Elections (Berish), and was present at a banned demonstration in Malaysia involving Berish in 2012.  In response to the deportation, several Australian Members of Parliament cancelled planned visits to Malaysia. Comment: Many Malaysian politicians supported Xenophon's deportation and questioned his motives for entering the country before the thirteenth general elections to be held in June. The general Australian public also questioned Xenophon motives for going to Malaysia. Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard expressed disappointment over the treatment of Xenophon, and Foreign Affairs Minister Bob Carr also voiced criticism of the event during a telephone conversation with Malaysian Foreign Minister Anifah Ahan, who replied that Malaysia strongly objects to foreign interference. (Aljazeera, Bernama, The Australian)

 

NORTH KOREA: North Korea threatens to destroy South Korea in UN meeting

On Tuesday during a debate held at Geneva for the UN Conference on Disarmament, North Korean (DPRK) diplomat Jon Yong Ryong stated that South Korea's (ROK) "erratic behavior would only herald its final destruction," prompting other ambassadors present to express that North Korea's language was inappropriate. China and Russia did not speak during the meeting and oppose placing stricter sanctions on North Korea. The U.S. is pressing for a unified UN Security Council response, and the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Relations is working on a bill to limit the DPRK's access to hard currency. Comment: DPRK's statement may be a reaction to ROK's recent rocket launch on January 30 and the unveiling of a long-range missile on February 14, which the South Korean government said could strike any target in North Korea. Opinion is divided in South Korea, with some analysts observing that DPRK has made similar threats in the past, while others view the comment as a new form of aggression. (Reuters, Korea Times, NK Daily

 

REGIONAL:  Philippines-based Sultan of Sulu reclaims Sabah state of Malaysia

An estimated 80-100 armed Filipino men - identified as the "Royal Sulu Army" of Sultan Jamalul Kiram III - reportedly occupied the coastal town of Kampun Tanduo, an hour away from the city Lahad Datu, in Malaysia last week to reclaim the Sultan's ancestral territory. There are roughly 200-400 people total in the Sultan's retinue, and the group allegedly left the southern Philippines because the Sulu people were not included the agreement between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and the Philippines government in October 2012. Comment: Sabah, once called North Brunei, belonged to the Sultan of Brunei who ceded parts of the land to European powers and to the Sultan of Sulu. In 1878 North Brunei was leased to Britain, and was later given to Malaysia following its independence in 1963. Since independence, the Malaysian government has paid compensation to the heirs of the Sulu Sultanate for possession of the land. (Al Jazeera, Philstar, NST

 

Researched/Written by Melissa Newcomb
Europe & Central Asia

ARMENIA: President re-elected without strong opposition

On Monday, close to 60 percent of eligible Armenians confirmed election-watchers' expectations and voted to re-elect President Serzh Sargsyan, who received nearly 59 percent of votes. The results spurred protests led by presidential candidate Raffi Hovannisian, the closest rival to President Sargsyan, who declared himself the winner despite only receiving roughly 37 percent of votes. The Organization for the Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) observed the election and stated that although President Sargsyan clearly lacked competition, the election provided indicators of electoral improvement. Comment: President Sargsyan stated on Monday that his top priorities for his next term are security and economic development, which may bolster Armenia's case for joining the European Union (EU). He is particularly concerned about Azerbaijan's recent increased military spending, which could spark a new clash along the lines of the Nagomo-Karabakh conflict of the 1990s. (Reuters, Associated Press, Al Jazeera, Euronews)

 

BULGARIA: Prime Minister resigns

On Wednesday, Prime Minister Boyko Borisov announced his resignation and that of his Cabinet, composed of members of the Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) party; the resignation was in response to pressure from the public and recent clashes between the police and protesters, which ended in hospitalization and arrests. The eight day protest reached its climax on Wednesday with 11 demonstrations spurred by a 13 percent increase in electricity prices, falling standards of living, and the freezing of salaries and pensions. The following day, the parliament approved the government's request to resign and announced that the election scheduled for July could be expedited to as early as April. Comment: On Wednesday, Borisov stated that neither he nor the GERB cabinet would take part in the interim government. The interim government may face potential deadlock with the Socialist Party, who will also refrain from participating in the caretaker government. The effects of the recent mass protests in Bulgaria have been compared to the protests that brought down the government in 1997. (Reuters, BBC, Al Jazeera, Hurriyet Daily News)

 

FRANCE: Family kidnapped in Cameroon

A French family of seven who were vacationing in northern Cameroon was taken hostage on Tuesday when a group of gunmen intercepted their car on motorcycles and forced them across the Nigerian border. While no group has claimed responsibility for the kidnapping, Jean-Yves Le Drian, the French Minister of Defense, said that evidence points towards the Nigerian Islamist group Boko Haram.  President Hollande stated that these actions could be retaliation for the ongoing French operations in Mali; however, on Thursday, a Nigerian armed group named Ansaru claimed responsibility, but has not yet provided any motives for such actions. At the same time, rumors are circulating amongst sources that the family has been released, but they have yet to be found. Comment: On Wednesday, the French Foreign Ministry issued a travel warning and urged all French nationals to evacuate Cameroon "as soon as possible" in response to the event. The Cameroonian government officials said that an investigation will take place in order to identify the group. Over the past three years, 15 French nationals have been taken hostage in Africa, but this is the first occurrence in Cameroon. (Reuters, BBC, France24, Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera)

 

GERMANY: German Troops to be sent to Mali

On Tuesday, the German Cabinet approved the deployment of up to 330 soldiers to Mali, where approximately 180 will be providing training for the Malian army and 150 will assist the French operations with logistical and medical support staff under the European Union Training Mission (EUTM). Steffen Seibert, a government spokesperson, stressed that the objectives of the German mission in Mali will be in accordance with those of EUTM, and include a focus training on human rights, rule of law, and military skills; he also emphasized that German soldiers will not be involved in combat. All political parties except for the Left Party have expressed support for the motion, and the lower house, Bundestag, will vote to approve the troops on Friday. Comment: Since, the beginning of the French operations in Mali on January 11, Germany has provided its neighbor with two military transport aircrafts, with a third on standby. The EUTM mandate will last for 15 months and, as of now, the EUTM will consist of soldiers from 16 member states of the EU as well as Norway. (Reuters, Associated Press, Deutsche Welle, Hurriyet Daily News)

 

Researched/Written by Caroline Larsson

Middle East & North Africa

IRAQ: Coordinated car bombs strike Baghdad

On Sunday, a series of six car bombs and three improvised explosive devices (IEDs) exploded in mainly civilian Shiite neighborhoods throughout Baghdad, killing at least 36 people and wounding dozens of others. Although recent bombings have targeted security forces or checkpoints, Sunday's attacks were aimed at civilians, with the majority of them occurring in outdoor markets. On Monday, the Islamic State of Iraq, an al-Qaeda affiliate, took responsibility for Sunday's bombings claiming that, "the operation was in response to the repression of the Shiite criminal government and its policies against the Sunnis." Comment: The Sunni opposition demands that the Shiite government stop the "second-class treatment" of the country's Sunni minority. Sunday's violence follows a series of attacks on Saturday in which a suicide bomb killed the head of Iraq's intelligence academy, Brigadier General Aouni Ali, along with two of his guards when a suicide bomber stormed his house. At least 150 people have been killed this month. The recent attacks have some locals worried that sectarian warfare will damage the country's prospects for stability. (Al Jazeera, Al Arabiya, CNN)  

 

SYRIA: UN report suggests war crimes

A UN investigative report by the Independent International Commission of Inquiry has accused both Assad's regime and opposition armed rebels of war crimes during the country's two year civil war, including torture, murder, and the use of terror. The exact names of those accused were not divulged. News of the report came to light as rebel forces seized a vital army checkpoint in Aleppo which was followed on Tuesday by a Syrian army rocket that killed at least 31 people, of whom 19 were women and children. Comment: Although the report accused both sides of the conflict of war crimes, it indicated that the Assad regime has committed atrocities on a larger scale than the rebel forces. Not only is there a concern for the lack of respect for human rights within the conflict, but there is also a growing humanitarian crisis in the northeastern Deir az-Zor province that is not indicated in the report where an estimated 2,500 people have been infected with typhoid. (Saudi GazetteAl JazeeraBBC, Al Jazeera)

 

TUNISIA: Proposed government denied, PM resigns

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali announced his resignation, following through with his promise that he would leave if his proposal for a technocratic government failed. On Wednesday, a meeting was held between President Moncef Marzouki, the ruling Ennahda party founder Rached Ghannouchi, and other officials to discuss the formation of a new coalition government along with a new prime minister; however, no agreement was made. The official spokesperson for the Presidency, Adnene Mansar, indicated that the hope is that a new prime minister will be appointed in the next two days. Comment: Despite there being no consensus, Ghannouchi emphasized the importance of forming of a new coalition government as soon as possible. A BBC correspondent in Tunisia says that there is concern that the country's political limbo will spur more protests and violence. (Tunisia LiveBBCTunisia LiveTunis Presse)

 

Researched/Written by Kevin Coughlin

South Asia

AFGHANISTAN: New UN report shows decrease in civilian casualties

A report released Tuesday by the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) revealed a 12 percent drop in civilian deaths in Afghanistan; the first decrease in six years. The number of civilian deaths in 2012 decreased to 2,754 from 3,131 civilians killed in 2011; however, the report also exposed a 20 percent increase in casualties among women and children. Most of the casualties, about 81 percent, were a result of Taliban militant activities while another 8 percent were attributed to pro-government elements. Foreign forces, such as NATO, also decreased the number of civilian casualties resulting from their action by 46 percent. Comment: This week, following the air strike that killed 10 civilians in the Kunar province, President Karzai banned Afghan forces from allowing NATO strikes in the residential districts. With the U.S. withdrawal approaching in 2014 and the increase of militant factions, Afghanistan fears for the security of the region. (Al Jazeera, Reuters, BBC)

 

PAKISTAN: Families bury victims of bombing in Quetta

On Wednesday, Shi'ite Muslim protesters in Quetta finally buried the victims of Saturday's deadly bomb attack after the government conceded to their demand of greater protection from Sunni militants. The victims were leaving the dead unburied as a protest mechanism, since it is considered taboo to leave the dead unburied in Islam. In response to these protests, government forces killed four militants and arrested several suspects.  The region's chief of police was also replaced, and security was bolstered for the Hazara Shi'tes, a distinct ethnic group targeted by Sunni militants. Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, an outlawed Sunni sectarian group, claimed responsibility for the bombing which took place near a street market in the city, killing over 80 people and inciting large demonstrations against the government throughout the region. Comment: With the increase ofsectarian attacks over the previous year, there is uncertainty as to whether the government can provide security to the country prior to the upcoming May elections. (Dawn, Reuters, CNN)

 

SRI LANKA: New photographs reveal Tamil Leader's son possibly murdered

Photographs revealed on Tuesday by British-based film maker Callum Macrae indicate that the son of Tamil Tigers leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran, may have been murdered during the final months of the Sri Lankan war rather than killed in crossfire as previously claimed by the government. One photograph portrayed Prabhakaran's son, Balachandran, casually sitting on a bench in the Sri Lankan Army's custody, while another showed him dead with five bullets to his chest, suggesting he was executed by the Sri Lankan army. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay, called for an investigation into war crimes committed by the government; however, army spokesman, Ruwan Wanigasooriya, stated "No substantive evidence has been presented for us to launch an investigation." Comment: Macrae has made other films within the past two years addressing the supposed government-related war crimes during the 2009 war with Tamil Tiger militants. As of yet, these allegations have been repudiated by the government. (Deccan Herald, Reuters, BBC)

 

Researched/Written by Angela Mughal

February 22, 2013
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In This Issue
Featured Article
Africa
Americas
East Asia
Europe & Central Asia
Middle East & North Africa
South Asia

The Story of IPSI

IPSI - Cameron M. Chisholm
IPSI President Cameron M. Chisholm tells the Story of IPSI in this 5 minute video from ICD's recent conference in Washington.
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The Hague Symposium on Post-Conflict Transitions & International Justice
July - August 2013

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The Bologna, Italy Symposium on Conflict Prevention, Resolution, & Reconciliation
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Cameron M. Chisholm

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Chic Dambach

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Alexander Little 
Kevin Melton

William Stuebner 
Pamela Aall 
Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah
Betty Bigombe 

Dr. Francis Deng
Jan Eliasson
Gareth Evans 
Dr. Ted Robert Gurr
Amb. Jacques Paul Klein
Peter Kyle 
Dr. Jean Paul Lederach
Jeffrey Mapendere
John Marks 
Susan Collin Marks 
Dr. Joyce Neu

John Prendergast

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