IPSI's Peace & Security Report (PSR) is a concise weekly e-publication intended to brief busy students, academics, advocates, and practitioners in the conflict management community on pertinent global news, events, and trends.  Meticulously researched and written by IPSI, the PSR empowers us all to take a step back from our immediate deadlines each Friday and gain a greater understanding of the week's global events.

NOTE: IPSI would like to officially welcome Melanie Greenberg, President and CEO of the Alliance for Peacebuilding, to our Board of Directors!

 

Kenya's elections this year should turn the page on the bloodshed of five years ago, but the risk of political violence is still unacceptably high. A new constitution, fresh election commission and reformed judiciary should help. But the vote, now set for 4 March 2013, will still be a high-stakes competition for power, both nationally and in 47 new counties. Forthcoming trials before the International Criminal Court (ICC) of four Kenyans for their alleged role in the 2007-2008 post-election violence look set to shape the campaign. The potential for local violence is especially high. Politicians must stop ignoring rules, exploiting grievances and stoking divisions through ethnic campaigning. The country's institutions face fierce pressure but must take bold action to curb them. Business and religious leaders and civil society should demand a free and fair vote. So too should regional and wider international partners, who must also make clear that those who jeopardise the stability of the country and region by using or inciting violence will be held to account.

 

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COLOMBIA: FARC rebels end unilateral ceasefire.

A unilateral ceasefire declared by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) rebels in November 2012 ended last Sunday after the Government refused to join a bilateral truce, stating that the rebels would use the opportunity of a bilateral truce to rearm. President Santos said FARC had only partly honored their ceasefire pledge and that there have been at least 52 violations by the rebels over the past two months. Comment: This ceasefire was the second attempt for a negotiated solution by an elected president after the 2008 failed peace dialogues between former President Pastrana and the FARC. The stated goal of these dialogues is to set up a platform for negotiations that will lead to the creation and signing of a peace agreement, ultimately ending the internal conflict. (Reuters, BBC, NewsReliefWeb, El Colombiano,Today Colombia, El Tiempo ).

 

MEXICO: Crusade against Hunger

Last Monday, Mexican President Nieto launched a campaign to combat hunger in the country and presented a four-point plan to tackle the issue. The National Crusade against Hunger is designed to benefit 7.4 million Mexicans living in poverty and marginalization. The program will start in the 400 municipalities with the largest gaps in poverty, inequality, and discrimination (Oaxaca, Chiapas, Guerrero, Veracruz, State of Mexico, and Puebla). The President stated that the campaign is not a food distribution welfare method, but a structural transformation in terms of poverty reduction. Comment: Some analysts are hesitant about the anti-hunger plan, stating that it is vague and similar to existing policies. In their opinion, the campaign against hunger needs to focus on creating awareness that hunger is not only the lack of food or money, but also a deficient health system, poor quality education, and the absence of public services; all issues that need to be solved to achieve the goal of eliminating hunger. (El Pais, Reuters, Prensa Latina, El Universal, Cronica).

 

REGIONAL: Rapid melting of Andes glaciers

According to a study recently published by The Cryosphere, glaciers in the tropical Andes have shrunk by an average of 30-50 percent since the 1970s. The glaciers, which provide fresh water for tens of millions in South America, are retreating at their fastest rate in the past 300 years. As a direct consequence, the region could face water shortages in the future. Countries such as Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia will be affected due to heavy reliance on glacier water for agriculture, domestic consumption, and hydropower. Comment: Scientists and political analysts warn that climate change will have consequences for local, regional, and global security in Latin America. According to climate expert Janet Sawin, climate-related pressures can exacerbate existing tensions among nations, destabilizing geopolitical balance, and provoke conflict. (BBC, WorldWatch Institute, NYTimes, Reuters, Cryosphere). 

 

INDONESIA: UK citizen sentenced to death for drug trafficking

On January 23, a Bali court sentenced 56-year-old Lindsay Sandiford to death for attempting to smuggle 5kg of cocaine in May 2012. Three other Britons were involved in the case; two were sentenced to time in prison while one defendant's trial is still underway. Charged as the ringleader of the operation, Sandiford claims that drug dealers threatened her children and forced her to traffic the narcotics. Comments: British Foreign Office minister Hugo Swire objected to the death penalty and the human rights organization Reprieve has stepped in to help Sandiford appeal the judgment. Five foreigners were executed in Indonesia for drug-related crimes between 1998 and 2008, but none in the past five years. (Jakarta Globe, BBC, TVNZ)

 

NORTH KOREA: UN sanctions spur DPRK to increase nuclear activity

On Tuesday, the UN Security Council (UNSC) approved Resolution 2087, tightening current sanctions and repeating demands that North Korea abandon all nuclear activities. China supported the resolution, a move that contradicts their previous stance toward the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) within the UNSC. In response to perceived international hostility, North Korea's Foreign Ministry on Wednesday stated that the DPRK rejects denuclearization talks and will take measures to increase self-defense, hinting at future nuclear tests.  Comments: The UN resolution is a response to the launch of the Unha-3 rocket in December 2012. North Korea claims the satellite launch was for peaceful space exploration, but many countries, including the U.S. and South Korea, believe the rocket was part of a program to develop ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. (AP, The Korea Times, Xinhua).

 

REGIONAL: Maritime disputes continue between China, Japan, U.S. 

Maritime disputes over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands were rekindled on January 19 during a meeting between Secretary Clinton and Japanese Foreign Minister Kishida. Clinton stated that the U.S. recognizes Japan's ownership of the islands as legitimate and therefore protected by the U.S-Japan Security treaty.However, China claims the islands as their own and on Monday following the meeting, China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei cautioned Washington to "have a responsible attitude." Japan's New Komeito Party leader Natsuo Yamguchi was sent with a letter from Prime Minister Abe Shinzo to meet with Communist Party leader Xi Jinping on January 24 to reduce tensions. Comments: The controversial Senkaku/Diaoyu issue resurfaced in September 2012 when the Japanese government purchased the islands from private Japanese owners. Previously the U.S. had not taken a position on the Sekaku/Diaoyu islands. (AFP, Reuters, Japan Today, NY Times)

 

REGIONAL: Philippines take legal action against China

On January 22, Assistant Secretary Teresa Lazaro  of  the Philippines Department of Foreign Affairs issued a Note Verbale to Chinese Ambassor Ma Keqing, informing him of the Philippines' decision to bring China before an Arbitral Tribunal for violating Article 287 and Annex VII of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The Philippines state that they have attempted to negotiate bilaterally with China for years without success and that international legal action will help find an enduring resolution to the disputed Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) in the South China Sea (known as the West Philippine Sea in the Philippines). Comments: The Philippines claim that the Scarborough Shoal is within their 200-mile economic zone, but Ambassador Ma expressed China's "indisputable sovereignty" over the Nansha Islands and waters surrounding them and advised the Philippines to withdraw from international measures and settle the dispute directly with China. (Xinhua, Reuters, Philistar, Inquirer)

 

FRANCE/TURKEY: Preliminary murder and terrorism charges for the killer of three Kurdish activists in Paris

On Monday, French prosecutor Francois Molins filed preliminary charges against Ömer Güney, a Turkish citizen who killed three Kurdish activists in Paris in early January. The three female victims were all members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been seeking self-determination and autonomy for Kurds in Turkey. The suspect, the 30-year old Güney, is himself a member of the PKK. The Turkish Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu, conjectured that the killings could have been the result of an internal dispute within the PKK, while the Kurdish organization believes that the Turkish secret service could potentially be involved. Comment: The dispute between the government of Turkey and the PKK originates from the 1980's. Recently, there was an agenda for peace negotiations between the parties, but since the incident in Paris, negotiations are on hold. The PKK is considered a terrorist organization by Turkey and its Western allies. (Al Jazeera, Guardian, France 24, Hurriyet Daily News)

 

RUSSIA: Russian nationals evacuated from Syria

On Wednesday, the Russian Federation sent two airplanes to Beirut to evacuate up to 150 Russians, mainly women and children, who decided to leave Syria as violence continues. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov confirmed that this was not an attempt to evacuate all Russian citizens in Syria, but rather in response to requests made by Russians residing in the region. Comment: Since the start of the Syrian conflict in March 2011, Russia has been seen as an ally to the Assad regime. In the UN Security Council, Russia has vetoed three resolutions, effectively rejecting global sanctions on President Assad's government. The evacuation is seen by some as a method of protecting Russian citizens from becoming victims of Syrian rebels, who stated in December 2012 that Russians, among others, are one of their targets. (BBC, Reuters, Al Jazeera, Pravda)

 

UNITED KINGDOM: PM Cameron promises a referendum on EU membership

On Wednesday, British Prime Minister Cameron announced that if his party wins the 2015 election, he will offer the Britons a referendum choice whether or not to remain in the European Union. In his speech to the House of Commons in London, Cameron suggested that preceding such referendum, a potential negotiation between the UK and EU member states over the future of the union should highlight five principles of "competitiveness, flexibility, power flowing back to - not just away from - member states, democratic accountability and fairness." Although Cameron emphasized that he is not campaigning for the UK to leave the EU, he underscored the importance of change and that the Britons should not be left out in the process. A British withdrawal could result in a shift in the power balance within the EU. Comment: The last British referendum on EU membership occurred in 1975, with approximately 30 percent voting to withdraw. Today, the UK is one of 10 EU countries that is not using the Euro and, despite the UK benefiting from the single market, the Eurozone crisis can be seen as an influential factor on the potential referendum, as the crisis has caused changes to rules and regulations within the EU. (BBC, Reuters, Telegraph)

 

Researched/Written by Caroline Larsson

ALGERIA: Hostage crisis at gas facility

On January 16, at a BP gas facility in the southeastern part of the country, al-Qaeda affiliates attacked two buses carrying gas to the In Amenas plant and took hostages. As of Wednesday, a total of 39 hostages, 37 being foreigners were from eight different countries, have been confirmed dead, roughly 100 people escaped, and five others are currently missing. Former al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) emir, Mokhtar Belmokhtar, claimed responsibility for the attack as retaliation for France's UN backed intervention in northern Mali. Comment: Although the attackers have said that their motives were spurred by France's intervention in Mali, regional analysts believe that the attack was too sophisticated to have been planned in such a short amount of time. Whether or not the crisis was the result of the Mali situation, the event in Algeria reveals the growing transnational influence of AQIM. Those involved in the planning and execution come from seven different countries with only the leader being an Algerian citizen. The attack itself was "planned in Mali, launched from Libya, and executed in Algeria." (CNN, al Arabiya, BBC, CNN)

 

IRAQ: Deadly explosions sweep the country

On Tuesday and Wednesday, several deadly explosions shook the country. On Tuesday, three separate blasts claimed at least 17 lives in the capital of Baghdad; all three attacks were the result of detonated car bombs, one of which was a suicide bombing. The deadliest attack occurred in the city of Taji where a suicide bomber killed at least seven people near an army base. On Wednesday, a suicide bomber killed at least 35 people and wounded 70 others in an attack on a Shi'ite Muslim mosque in the northern city of Tuz Khurmato. Comment: The recent attacks come as the Iraqi Prime Minister, Nuri al-Maliki, faces Sunni protests following the arrest of members of the Sunni finance minister's security force on suspicions of terrorism nearly a month ago. The Sunni minority feels that they are being marginalized within a government that is currently trying to consolidate power between Shi'ites, Sunnis, and Kurds. (al Jazeera, Reuters, al Arabiya)

 

ISRAEL: Netanyahu's Likud party wins national election

On Tuesday, Benjamin Netanyahu narrowly held onto his position as Prime Minister as he and his party won 31 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament. Even though a victory was secured, the Likud party won 11 fewer seats than the last election in 2009, partly due to the newly-formed center-left Yesh Atid Party's securing of 19 seats. With elections now over, the next step is for Israeli politicians to negotiate the framework of the new government. Comment: Netanyahu has said that the focus of the new government will be on increasing equality in the military, making housing more affordable, and changing the "system" of governing. Given that the Yesh Atid Party finished in second place, it is likely that they will be included within his new coalition. Analysts now speculate whether the right-wing Lukid Party will swing more towards the center if Netanyahu does indeed include the Yesh Atid Party. (BBC, Reuters, Haaretz, al Jazeera, CNN)    

 

SYRIA: Rebels continue to target Assad supporters

On Monday, 30 people died and 50 people were wounded by a car bombing that struck the headquarters of the local People's Committee group in the city of Salamiyeh. On the same day, deadly fighting between the government and rebels took place in the capital of Damascus. In total, there were 110 deaths recorded on Monday throughout the nation. Comment: The recent attacks are part of a greater uprising against President Bashar al-Assad in which an estimated 60,000 people have died and two and a half million people have been displaced since March 2011. This week's attacks appear to stem from the Syrian defense minister's insistence on chasing after rebels until "it achieves victory and thwarts the conspiracy that Syria is subjected to." Although peace talks have begun in Geneva to discuss a cease fire, no progress has been made. (CNN, BBC, al Jazeera)

 

Researched/Written by Kevin Coughlin