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Edgar Hicks    


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Corn Crop Fundamental Projections -- Expect the Unexpected (again)



Commencing with the USDA's Annual Crop Summary (in January) many food/commodity-based firms have reviewed and summarized the previous year's results. However, when the USDA makes a forecast, like this month's 10 year projection, most commodity traders look "forward" to the USDA numbers in their risk/reward analysis seeking marketing "opportunity$" as part of the
job function.  


The risk/reward standout for ethanol marketers in the February USDA corn projection can be found on page 54; "...with about 35 percent of total corn use expected to go to ethanol production during the projection (10 year) period", international commodity (ethanol) participants, with research support, have the ability to redefine USDA expectations (35%) at the expense of their regional competitors.


While the ethanol industry projections may not lay out a rosy 2015, market action has already displayed the need for corporate team agility for bottom-line results this calendar year.


 The CFO Systems Corn Crush


The CFO Systems Corn Crush  is now $0.49/gallon of ethanol on February 17, 2015.
*Using nearby CBOT corn futures, CBOT ethanol futures, USDA corn oil prices and ethanol industry conversion standards.



We believe positions are unique to each person's risk bearing ability, marketing strategy and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.