War on Terror Watch 

ISIS - Although a U.S. diplomatic official boasted that the U.S.-led coalition had killed 6,000 Islamic State fighters in Iraq and Syria, and intelligence shows that half of ISIS's leaders in Iraq have been killed, Coalition officials acknowledged that ousting the group from key cities remains a distant aspiration and retired General John Allen warned Congress that there is still a long fight ahead. Meanwhile, Nick Rasmussen, chief of the National Counterterrorism Center, said that more than 20,000 foreigners from 90 countries have joined militant factions in Syria, "far exceeding the rate of foreigners who went to wage jihad in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Yemen or Somalia at any other point in the past 20 years." Central to ISIS's recruiting success is its adept use of social media, with one analysis finding that its supporters used at least 46,000 Twitter accounts in late 2014. Consequently, Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper Jr. told Congress that terrorism trend lines were worse "than at any other point in history." This was before Boko Haram, militant group responsible for mass kidnappings and massacres in Nigeria, pledged allegiance to the Islamic State last week.

JORDAN - In February, ISIS released a video showing the execution of a captured Jordanian pilot by burning him alive. Jordan's King Abdullah II vowed that his military forces would hit ISIS militants with "relentless" strikes upon "their own homes," and Jordan launched dozens of airstrikes against ISIS targets. Other Middle East countries condemned the murder of the Jordanian pilot, and according to U.S. Central Command, increased the intensity of their attacks against ISIS.

AUMF - President Barack Obama sent his long-awaited proposal for a congressional authorization of military force for operations against ISIS. The measure, which lasts three years, prohibits "enduring ground combat operations" but has now geographic limits. This has drawn criticism from both Republicans and Democrats, who either view the time and force limitations as too restrictive or the lack of a geographic limitation as too broad. Yet the Congressional Research Service said in a legal brief that the President could still use ground troops and that the next President could extend the military campaign - which is entering its seventh month - beyond the three-year limit no matter what Congress passes.

YEMEN - As Houthi rebels seized control of Yemen's capital, the Obama administration closed the U.S. embassy in Sana'a. Because the CIA and U.S. military's targeting decisions are largely dependent upon Yemeni government intelligence collected from sources on the ground, this has forced the suspension of certain U.S. counterterrorism operations in Yemen against al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). With that government's collapse, the curtailing of counterterror training of Yemen's security forces, and the departure of U.S. personnel from Yemen, what is considered al-Qa'ida's most dangerous franchise has been able to make fresh military gains. However, drone strikes continued through the first week of February, killing three suspected al-Qa'ida militants in southeastern Yemen.

Back to top 

Syria and Iraq Watch 

SYRIA: Kurdish militias regained full control of the Syrian border city of Kobani with the help of U.S.-led airstrikes, and the Pentagon announced military commanders have identified about 1,200 Syrian opposition fighters for potential participation in a U.S.-led program to help train and equip them to fight ISIS. This is the first step in an effort the Obama Administration hopes will yield some 5,400 moderate fighters in a year, and the Pentagon also announced the deployment of more than 400 U.S. military trainers and hundreds more supporting personnel to four training sites in three countries as part of the training effort. This comes after many of the Syrian rebel groups previously favored by the CIA had their money and supplies cut off or substantially reduced in the past several months, and in February the first Syrian rebel group to be given U.S. weapons collapsed after losing control of its headquarters to Syria's main al-Qa'ida affiliate.

IRAQ (I) - BATTLEFIELD GAINS, EQUIPMENT SHORTFALLS: U.S. and allied warplanes conducted airstrikes in support of Kurdish Peshmerga fighters who pushed back Islamic State forces from a 300-square mile area of northern Iran and cut one of the extremist group's key supply lines to the occupied city of Mosul. However, plummeting oil prices have devastated Iraq's budget and its ability to combat the Islamic State, and Prime Minister Haider Abadi appealed to the U.S.-led coalition and the international community for more assistance. Iraqi commanders have been increasingly voicing frustration over failed deliveries of weapons, inadequate training, and differences in strategy with the U.S.-led coalition. The Pentagon pointed to a February deal for the delivery of 10,000 new M-16 rifles, 250 Mine Resistant-Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles, and other military equipment as evidence of its efforts to speed delivery of arms to Iraq.

Back to top  

U.S.-Israel Cooperation  

Back to top 

North Africa Watch 

LIBYA: Gunmen claiming allegiance to the Islamic State stormed the luxury Corinthia Hotel in Tripoli, killing at least ten people, including an American. Fighting between rival militias close resumed close to Libya's largest oil port, Sidra, further plunging the country into lawlessness and driving down production and causing what could be long-lasting damage to the industry. Consequently, DNI James Clapper said the intelligence community now sees "troublesome" Libya as country of prime concern in the war on terrorism.

EGYPT: On January 30, an Egyptian extremist group affiliated with the Islamic State conducted a series of simultaneous bombings against security facilities in the Sinai, killing 30 people. Subsequently, on February 16, the Islamic State released the videotaped beheading of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians on a Libyan beach. Within 12 hours, Egyptian warplanes struck Islamic State targets in Libya in retaliation. Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi called for a United Nations-backed coalition to root out extremists in Libya, but his effort to win broad international support for military interventions was rebuffed by Western diplomats.

Back to top 

Technology Watch 

DOD VULNERABILITIES: In the Pentagon's chief weapons tester's annual report, the Director of Operational Test and Evaluation revealed that nearly every U.S. weapons program tested in fiscal 2014 showed "significant vulnerabilities" to cyber attacks, including misconfigured, unpatched, and outdated software. The report came days after fresh documents leaked by former U.S. intelligence contractor Edward Snowden said China had stolen "many terabytes" of data about the Lockheed Martin Corp F-35 fighter jet. Subsequently, Undersecretary for AT&L Frank Kendall announced that he would add cybersecurity to the Pentagon's guidelines for buying weapons.

NEW DEFENSE, OLD OFFENSE: The Obama administration announced the establishment of a new Cyber Threat Intelligence Integration Center, modeled after the National Counterterrorism Center, to combat the deepening threat from cyberattacks and to fuse intelligence from around the government when a crisis occurs. Meanwhile, leading cybersecurity firm Kaspersky Lab announced it had found personal computers in 30 countries infected with surveillance and sabotage tools deep within hard drives made by a variety of manufacturers. Although Kaspersky did not specify the source of these spying programs that are largely invulnerable to anti-virus programs, the spyware's sophistication and the fact that it is most prevalent in countries closely watched by American intelligence agencies suggests it was a NSA product.

DRONE EXPORTS: The Obama administration announced a new policy allowing wider exports of armed drones for the first time. The State Department is trying to allay concerns by putting forward "stringent" standards for sales and transfers of military drones that have become a cornerstone of U.S. counterterrorism strategy. Subsequently, Australia has given a strong indication it is considering buying armed American-made drones, announcing its military has already begun training to fly the weapons.

Back to top 

Missile Defense 

Back to top