Greetings from the Grand Strand!

It's only been a couple of weeks since I sent out my last newsletter (ran a little late on that edition), so this one is going to be short and sweet - no big articles. Of course, all the usual reports are included.

There haven't been any big market changes or notable local events in that short time period but here are a few observations.

I've mentioned in previous newsletters that the past 15 year's market history has shown that rapid appreciation coincided with low numbers of listings (low supply) and rapid depreciation coincided with high numbers of listings (large supply). However, over the past year or so (particularly in recent months), prices have been increasing even though the number of oceanfront condo listings has remained remarkably stable. So what's going on?

When I sifted through my big spreadsheets yesterday to choose my "Best Buys", there were 1285 active oceanfront condo listings on the Grand Strand (per MLS) - in the same narrow range (1100 to 1300) as the past four years. Two factors have changed considerably however.

For one thing, there are very few distress sales. A distress sale is not "normal" in that the rationale for selling and the consequences of accepting an extremely low price are out of the ordinary. This is why a large number of distress sales will distort the market.  With few distress sales in the current market, almost all of the sellers are choosing to sell for normal reasons and they are making normal decisions.

The other noticeable change involves the price ranges of the listings. In many developments, particularly the ones that have had the greatest amount of recent sales activity, there are currently no listings in the price ranges in which most sales in recent years have been occurring. For instance, in one building in which all the sales last year for 1BR condos were in the low $90s, there are still several listings but the lowest asking price is $104,900. In an upscale building in which there were several sales of ocean view condos in the mid $400s last year, the lowest priced similar listing is priced in the mid $500s. I could give numerous similar examples in other developments.

I think I've stated this before in previous newsletters - prices go up through attrition. Individual sellers rarely raise their prices. What actually happens is that as market activity picks up, the lower priced listings are sold, leaving only higher-priced listings. Eventually, one or more of the higher priced listings sells. The seller may not get his high asking price but the price is still higher than recent sales. Each sale establishes a new price point. When prices go up sufficiently, other potential sellers who've been waiting on the sidelines for higher prices decide it's time to sell so more listings appear. Prices will often plateau again at this point as the sellers compete with each other. Typically, this pattern is repeated in one building after another until eventually the overall market prices increase. This is why prices can go up while the number of listings remains steady. Note that this is why we are seeing slow, steady appreciation instead of the galloping appreciation we saw during the boom market when the number of oceanfront condo listings on the entire Grand Strand dropped to under 300.

Another observation is that just about everyone is now predicting that increases in interest rates are imminent. Of course, it's common knowledge that the Federal government has intentionally held interest rates down since the recession.  We also all knew that this wouldn't last forever. What has changed is that there seems to now be a consensus of opinion among the so-called experts in all fields involved in financing  that interest rates may rise substantially in the relatively near future - maybe in the next few months. For a financed purchase, this is every bit as important as a price increase. To put this in perspective, a 1% interest rate increase, from 4% to 5%, for a $200,000 mortgage with a 30 year amortization, will increase the amount of interest the borrower will pay during the life of the mortgage by almost $43,000.

Note that higher interest rates will not only affect buyers. This change will affect affordability as well - which could impact selling prices and the time frame needed to sell. The likelihood of higher interest rates is another reason that now may be a good time to make a move (buying or selling) if you are considering doing so any time in the near future. Please contact me if you would like to discuss your particular situation.

That's it for this month. Read on for the latest monthly reports and my Best Buys.

See you at the beach!