Greetings from the Grand Strand!

This is a combined December and January newsletter. It includes all of the usual comprehensive marketing statistics I normally provide, for both November and December. I'll get back on track with the February Real Estate News. I've started my analysis of last year's sales data. Next month I'll provide a detailed report. In the meantime, here are some interesting tidbits.

My own sales, both in terms of the number of transactions and sales volume, were almost exactly the same in 2013 and 2014. However, as I suspected from my conversations with other agents and my personal observations, the number of oceanfront condo sales decreased in 2014 compared with recent years. Per MLS, there were 1119 closed oceanfront condo sales in 2014 compared with 1271 in 2013 - a decrease of 12%. The 2014 total was the lowest since 2009 - at the height of the recession (1035 closed oceanfront sales).

The number of new contracts in 2014 was even lower - 1069. Incidentally, the number of new contracts is typically somewhat different from the number of closed sales because some properties are sold in one year and closed in the next since it takes 30 to 60 days per property per sale to close.

So does this mean demand for oceanfront condos has diminished? Personally, I don't think so. My buyer inquiries have been increasing (for me and my team anyway). Interest rates haven't gone up. Financing for oceanfront condos has become far easier to obtain that it was a few years ago. Rental incomes have generally been rising. Sale prices, particularly in the most popular developments, are creeping up. So what's going on?

For one thing, as I've stated in several other newsletters, our market has stabilized. We're not experiencing the volatility we saw from 2003 through 2009. Even though the number of transactions was down somewhat in 2014, it was still in the same general range in which it's been for the past five years (between 1119 and 1311 closed oceanfront condo sales per year since 2010). In other words, this was an incremental change, probably within the normal statistical fluctuation from year to year. For an example of a real eye-popping number, consider that in 2005, at the top of the boom, there were 2612 oceanfront condo sales and I'm sure this number understates the true activity level by a large margin because many of the new towers completed in that time period didn't report their closings to MLS.

So what did cause the number of transactions to dip last year? I suspect the horrific winter weather in the Northeast depressed sales somewhat. Hopefully, this year's weather will be more normal and sales volume will bounce back up. If January activity is any indication, we appear to be back on track for normal seasonal sales activity.

Certainly, one factor influencing the number of closed sales is that there are few clear-cut bargains on the market. There are very few distressed sales on the oceanfront and many sellers are listing at unrealistic prices. The result is that, in many popular developments, there are few sellable listings for buyers to choose from.  One thing I would like to make clear is that, in the present market, reasonably priced listings will sell and buyers are willing to pay market prices - maybe even slightly above.

Whatever the reason for the change last year, the 2014 sales pattern was certainly different than normal. I've mentioned this in several previous newsletters but now I have a visual representation. Take a look at the following two charts. The first chart shows the normal historical pattern for oceanfront condo sales. This is based on new contracts over a five-year period. The second chart shows the pattern for new contracts in 2014. I won't even attempt to offer an explanation but it is clearly different than the norm. Note that October was my best sales month of the year, corresponding to the spike in activity which shows up on the chart.

Next month, we'll look at the 2014 in much more detail.  Should be fun!