I am not a prophet and maybe should not venture down this road, but I do read, listen, and talk about the Outdoor Hospitality Industry every day. So without trying to be a prophet, let me tell you what I am seeing, hearing, and talking about.

First, I have been in the industry since 1961 in one form or another. That means I am starting my 6^th decade of serving the industry I love. During that time, I have seen many economic downturns. And the main thing I have learned in these downturns is that with every recovery there is a paradigm shift of the way Americans use their leisure time. I fully expect this recovery to be no different. That means real excitement for those who are willing to think outside the box.

One of the unique things about this recovery is that it is coming about at the same time that the baby boomers are hitting retirement in mass. This will have a great impact on everyone doing business in the industry. These boomers will dictate patterns which will influence the industry for the next 20 years. If you want to be successful, study this generation.

Second, always the elephant in the room is money (or the economy). Money is going to be tight this year. Economic uncertainties cloud enthusiasm about any recovery. Commercial lending will be as difficult as ever. As much as politicians rave about small business and their impact on America, they continue to make policies which strangle the small business person. The government in reality hates small business and that feeling of disdain is reflected in their policies. I believe that if small business people don't get more involved in politics at all levels, we are rapidly approaching a day when we will be the dinosaurs of tomorrow. That is the bad news. But let me tell you what I think the good news is. There is capital out there. And if you offer fresh cutting edge ideas, you can tap into that market. And this is a great time to do just that. Because it is my belief that we are going to encounter, very soon, a round of inflation unmatched in American history (and I am old enough to remember the Carter years). Investment today, at today's rates, and today's acquisition and construction costs will be very wise investments tomorrow. Exit strategies will be so appealing that the industry will incur massive turnovers in the next 5 years. If you can put together investment packages today, capitalize short term uncertainties so you can stay afloat, and hang tough with new ideas in the midst of negative outlooks, you will be one of the "happy campers" in the near future.

Gasoline prices will have their impact again this year. Already they are pushing rapidly upward. That means you need to be putting more of your marketing dollars locally (within the range of a gas tank or two) and target those folks who are less impacted by those rising prices. I don't see gas prices strangling our industry this year, but will create new ways for people to enjoy Outdoor America.

I continue to be amazed that the supply side of our industry is content with offering the mediocre, while the demand side is pushing toward higher end facilities and services. Our market is out there buying very expensive rigs and then finding there are very few resorts and parks which match their investments. They buy the sizzle when they purchase the rigs: beautiful mountain resorts, beaches, streams, rivers, major attractions and fanaticize about their experiences, only to find rig damaging gravel, mud-holes, brown outs from inadequate utility services, no security, poorly trained staffs, and belligerent owners. We need to expand our visions to match what the retail industry is selling.

One more shift I see coming that will have impacts this year. America has lost annual earnings to an average of $5,000 per family in the last 4 years. Many have lost their homes and many more have just bailed out of the housing market. Simply put, the American Dream is not what it used to be. Downsizing makes sense when you are making less money. That means many families have become mobile to be able to go where work is and they are willing to live in RV's to make that happen. That means the demand will continue to increase for high end long term resorts. I believe the high enders will prosper because, remember, this work force was living in quality homes just a few years ago. They have become accustomed to quality and they will respond to quality. We need to recognize their dignity and appeal to that. City Councils need to be encouraging these kinds of developments instead of stonewalling them. Government is so busy trying to give dignity to all kinds anomalies that it fails to see the reality of what America needs. We need to push them with real facts and figures and real peoples' needs.

These are just a few of the things that have been running through my mind. I sure there are many more in yours. Let's make our ideas count this year for a stellar future in this decade.

Editor's Note: The following information about the future of RV parks and campgrounds and the RV industry appeared in a news release from Wert-Berater Inc.

Industry Outlook

Recovery for the campgrounds and RV parks industry has arrived. After fighting through declines, industry revenue is expected to perk up in 2012 and 2013. Wert-Berater Inc. forecasts that revenue will increase at an estimated annualized rate of 2.4% to $5.4 billion over the five years to 2017. Furthermore, industry revenue will increase 2.6% to $4.9 billion from 2012 to 2013.

Sensitivities

Travel spending is expected to increase over the next five years. In 2013, domestic travel is projected to increase 4.1%, while inbound travel will rise 5.4%. Increased travel rates will benefit campgrounds and RV parks, which have felt the pinch as people canceled and delayed their trips. Over the five years to 2017, domestic travel is forecast to increase at an average rate of 3.3% per year, while inbound travel will increase at an average annual rate of 5.3%.

The industry will also benefit from the economy improving, unemployment rates declining and people spending more money. Consumer spending is expected to increase 1.2% in 2013, and some of this renewed spending is expected to go toward trips and travel. Over the five years to 2017, consumer spending is anticipated to increase at an average annual rate of 3.3%.

Changes in the relative price of domestic and international travel also play a large part in determining travel patterns. Over the past five years, the U.S. dollar has depreciated, which has encouraged domestic travel by making foreign travel relatively more expensive. This factor has also encouraged foreigners to visit the United States. These trends benefit the campgrounds and RV parks industry by encouraging Americans to travel domestically while spurring an influx of foreign tourists. Other non-economic factors include the time available to travel, cultural and family links and the age of travelers. The price of gas is an additional factor that feeds directly into travel costs, especially in driving-dependent industries such as the campgrounds and RV parks industry.

RV sales

The performance of the RV dealers industry will improve through 2017. In 2013, its revenue is expected to increase 2.7% to $18.5 billion. Furthermore, revenue is forecast to grow at an annualized rate of 2.9% over the five years to 2017. However, RV sales will take years to return to their zenith, hampered by the lasting effects of wealth destruction on key customer markets' ability to finance RV purchases. Current RV owners will also likely continue to choose domestic campgrounds and national parks over international tourist destinations because domestic travel remains a more cost-effective alternative to international travel.

The most promising case for long-term growth in RV sales is the aging Baby Boomer generation. The Baby Boomer population, consisting of people born from 1946 to 1964, numbers about 78.0 million people. This generation is expected to be wealthier and to live longer than any prior generation, making them prime targets for an RV lifestyle. Additionally, Boomers grew up during the height of the Boy Scouts' popularity, resulting in an appreciation for the outdoors. According to the Recreation Vehicle Industry Association (RVIA), one-tenth of vehicle owners in this age group also own an RV.

Future trends

The industry is expected to resume expansion as the economy improves. Demand for on-site rentals of RVs and for the storage of RVs will rise. However, sales of used RVs are expected to accelerate over the initial part of the next five years until the arrival of more robust economic growth. Moreover, as revenue grows, industry profit margins are also expected to creep up slowly, making the industry more appealing for potential entrants. Over the five years to 2017, the number of enterprises is expected to grow at an annualized rate of 0.7% per year to 13,431. Employment is also expected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.6% to 47,140, though the industry will continue to use temporary employees during peak guest periods.

The progressive aging of the population, particularly of people aged 55 to 75, will continue to positively influence demand and industry revenue growth as the economic situation improves. Continuing strong growth in RV shipments will support this increase. There will also be an increasing trend toward the franchising of campgrounds, with operators being associated with chains and benefiting from joint promotional activities and access to online information and reservation systems for guests. Significant increases in direct online bookings by guests are expected.

Overall, increasing investment in improving facilities and amenities for guests will remain important, even in low growth periods. Such amenities include the provision of wireless Internet access and access to health and fitness centers. These will need to be supported by continuing industrywide and national promotional campaigns promoting the benefits of RV and camping activities.

A survey the Recreation Vehicle Industry Association (RVIA) commissioned last summer through Precision Research, an Arizona-based firm that has done previous work for RVIA, revealed some broad misunderstandings or confusion about some aspects of the park trailer industry.

The firm surveyed 400 RVers and 400 non-RVers. Results showed consumers in general don't recognize the phrases "recreational park trailer" or "destination camping" but have a far better understanding of phrases such as "park models" and "seasonal camping," Matt Wald, the RVIA's recreational park trailer executive director, told WCM.

To help clear up the confusion, the RVIA's ad hoc Destination Camping Committee that commissioned the study has recommended to the RVIA board that it adopt the phrases park model and seasonal camping and drop the other terms. The board will take up the recommendations at its March meeting, Wald said.

In the meantime, the Destination Camping Committee and the Recreational Park Trailer committees, whose names may be changed pending the RVIA board action, won't be meeting again until Committee Week in June, Wald said.

Trough Not As Deep As Commonly Thought

The decline that the park model industry has sustained since reaching an all-time high of 10,143 wholesale shipments in 2006 is not as deep as it is often portrayed, Wald pointed out to WCM. Shipments have tailed off each year since then and have not topped 4,000 in either of the last two years.

However, what was counted as a park model in previous years creates a proverbial "apples and oranges" dilemma.

Up until 2007, not only was the economy stronger than it is today, but also until then all trailer-type units that measured between 320 and 400 square feet were counted as a park model. Starting in 2008, RVIA allowed travel trailers to be built up to 400 square feet rather than limiting them to 320 square feet. Since then, many units that would have been counted as 8 ½-foot-wide park models are now rightfully counted as travel trailers.

"Overall, it looks like a desperate fall," Wald said. "But if you look just at the over-8½-foot-wide-park models, it still is down but not nearly as much as the overall number would seem to indicate. In fact, it is right in line with other RV types."

And Wald and the RVIA report some success in tackling the task of accurate record keeping to track wholesale shipments of park models. Until July 2012, shipments were tracked by the RPTIA. Figures for the first half of 2012 were spotty and incomplete and, according to Wald, understate actual production figures. For that reason, monthly RVIA wholesale shipment reports do not provide a year-over-year tabulation for park models for the entire year.

But Wald has coaxed park model manufacturers to go back in their 2012 records to try to recreate a better accounting of their production for the first half of the year. Once better accounting is complete, Wald hopes RVIA will be able soon to report a more complete picture for comparison purposes.

The seasonal price rise for gasoline may already be underway, according to an informal look at the current price report from GasBuddy.com.

Today's (Feb. 4) report puts the average retail price across the nation at $3.48 a gallon and reflects a steady increase since apparently bottoming out for the winter at $3.25 right before Christmas.

Since bottoming out at $1.61 (!) late in 2008 during the Great Recession, prices have steady risen with seasonal peaks each year.

Stay tuned.

Bud Surles Consulting Group just completed a comprehensive review of the revenue and concessions program for the Montana State Park System. This was a follow-up of a study we completed 25 years ago. The Montana State Park System is made up of highly capable professionals who have set out to make a difference and they are doing so in spite of economic and political realities. We would encourage all our readers who are traveling to the North West this summer, to make Montana State Parks an integral part of you visit. You will be delighted today and you will join with excitement the future they have embarked on.