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Stillwater Associates LLC Newsletter
 
June 2016 
In the June edition of the Stillwater Newsletter Michael Bloch writes about some lessons we've learned about what makes a weak term contract and suggestions on how to structure a strong one. We take a look at Dave Hackett's most recent presentation at the OPIS Mexico - U.S. Petroleum summit. Dave Hackett also takes a look at East Coast supply and production. Finally, subscriptions to Stillwater's LCFS Newsletter are available now. Get yours today! 
When Good Term Contracts Go Bad - Lessons Learned
by  Michael W. Bloch, with contributions from David Bulfin and David Wilshin

Stillwater recently worked with several clients and their attorneys to resolve term contract disputes that led to litigation or arbitration. These disputes were grounded in the poor structure and understanding of the terms and conditions of the contracts. Often, the parties to the contract cannot anticipate all the various ways that contract terms can be interpreted or applied to situations they may not foresee. Through its experience working with a large number of clients with a variety of different contract types and situations, Stillwater Associates has experience identifying most of these potential problem areas before they arise. Some of the key lessons learned from working on these cases are as follows:

Conditions Precedent ("CP") not clearly defined or satisfied.
A condition precedent is an event or state of affairs that is required before something else will occur. In contract law, a condition precedent is an event which must occur, unless its non-occurrence is excused, before performance under a contract becomes due, i.e., before any contractual duty exists. For example, one party's obligation to pay money may be expressly conditioned upon the other party's actual delivery of the agreed upon product within specifications at the agreed location and on time.

Deregulation in Mexico: Transformation to a Market-Based Structure Takes Time

As we continue to look at the issues surrounding Mexico's deregulation of their petroleum markets, we can see how much effort and time it is going to take to transform the government monopoly into a market-based structure. On May 24th, Dave Hackett spoke about the state of the Mexican petroleum products market at the latest OPIS Mexico - U.S. Petroleum Summit. Dave's presentation, The Value Chain Part 1 - Oil Product Supply, discussed the current petroleum product flows in Mexico, the export flows from the U.S. into Mexico, and wholesale prices along the border.

Mexico is a net importer of gasoline and diesel, but Mexico's state petroleum company, Pemex, controls the transportation fuels distribution system. As the deregulation process continues, imports will avoid the Pemex distribution system by trucking products from terminals along the U.S./Mexico border. Data suggests that because rack prices in Arizona and Texas have been lower than Pemex wholesale prices, lifting product at these terminals and importing by truck to Mexico could be profitable.


Where Demand Outstrips Capacity - U.S. East Coast Supply and Production
 

Supply to the East Coast is a complex mixture of local refineries, large pipeline movements from Texas and Louisiana and water shipments both barge and large ships.  The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) divides the U.S. into five regions or PADDs (Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts) as shown in Figure 1.  The East Coast is represented by PADD 1.

As can be seen in Figure 2, the East Coast has much greater demand for refined products than it has refinery capability to produce those products.  Even the small number of refiners are predominantly in one part of the region, while other parts of PADD 1 have no refining capacity at all.  Colonial Pipeline the largest U.S. pipeline, moves great volumes of gasoline and diesel fuel from Texas and Louisiana refineries. Plantation Pipeline also plays a major role in supplying the Southeast coast with products. These pipelines move light products into Georgia and then up the coast to New York. The gasolines moved are Southern reformulated gasoline (RFG), Northern RFG, conventional blendstock for oxygenate blending (BOB) and low reid vapor pressure (RVP) BOB.

 


Stillwater's LCFS Newsletter is now available for purchase through our new website Stillwater Publications. Is your company impacted by California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard? The LCFS is well under way, and it's important that Covered Entities and the companies that support them have the right information to make smart Credit Market decisions. Stillwater's LCFS Newsletter is a powerful tool to use as you navigate the standard. This unique publication offers the latest news and valuable Stillwater analysis of LCFS credit and deficit trends based on CARB data.


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Stillwater Associates is a transportation energy consulting firm. We help our clients understand how fuels get from the source to the service station. If your company is in need of expert advice, please let us know.

Sincerely,

David J. Hackett, President
Stillwater Associates LLC