Stillwater Logo
Stillwater Associates LLC Newsletter

August 2015
In the August edition of the Newsletter Dave Hackett analyzes the causes of the latest Southern California retail gasoline price spike. Our guest columnist Dave Hirshfeld of MathhPro offers an explanation of crack spread, a quick way to determine refining profitability. Finally, we offer the latest update to the Bubble Map Blog where we look at how the drop in crude oil prices has lead to a drop in crude-by-rail shipments to California.

Gasoline Price Spike: What Caused the Latest Rise in Southern California Retail Prices?


There are three major refining centers on the West Coast, the Pacific Northwest (PNW), the San Francisco Bay (SFB), and Los Angeles (LA). The refineries in the PNW supply Washington, Oregon and California with gasoline. The SFB plants supply Northern California, Northern Nevada and Southern California with gasoline. Excess gasoline from the PNW and SFB is tankered to LA because there are no connecting pipelines.

 

The LA refineries supply product to Southern California, Southern Nevada and Arizona. Normally the PNW and SFB are long on gasoline and LA is short. Gasoline is routinely exported to Canada, Mexico and Central America from the northern refineries.

 

The Southern California gasoline market has been especially volatile this year. The graph below shows the spot price for California Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CARBOB) for the Los Angeles and San Francisco markets, relative to the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) price.

 

 

 


Crack Spread: A "Quick-and-Dirty" Indicator of Refining Profitability

brought to you by



by Dave Hirshfeld, Mathpro, Inc.

Refining is the key link in the global supply chain extending from production of crude oil to end-use consumption of refined products. Crude oil as it exists at the wellhead is essentially worthless; a crude oil's value is in the value of the products made from it. 

 

 

Petroleum products produced from crude oil by refineries, meet more than one third of global energy demand and more than 95% of energy demand in the transportation sector. Refined products range from LPG (propane) - the lightest - through gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel down to asphalt and fuel oil - the heaviest. Light products - primarily the transportation fuels and petrochemical feedstocks - are more valuable than heavy products, such as fuel oil and asphalt. In the U.S., light products (mainly gasoline and diesel fuel) make up more than 75% of the product barrel.

Bubble Map Update: The Crude-by-Rail "Arb" to California is Closed


The August Bubble Map shows crude oil prices trending down since we last checked in at the end of June. WTI is down $7 since our last post at $46 per barrel on August 4th. The WTI/Brent differential has widened slightly to $4 over WTI. The Bakken discount has narrowed to $8 under WTI. The Western Canadian Select discount has widened to $14 under WTI. On the Gulf Coast, crude oil from the shale formations in Texas like Eagle Ford were priced at parity with WTI and Louisiana Light Sweet was $3 over WTI. On the West Coast, the San Joaquin Valley Heavy price was at a $3 discount to WTI. The Alaska North Slope differential was $6 over WTI on August 4th.
Stillwater Associates is a transportation energy consulting firm. We help our clients understand how fuels get from the source to the service station. If your company is in need of expert advice, please let us know.

Sincerely,

David J. Hackett, President
Stillwater Associates LLC