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Stillwater Associates LLC Newsletter

April 2015
In the May edition of the Newsletter we offer the latest update to the Bubble Map Blog. Refining in California has slowed down lately due to turnarounds and outages. As a result retail gasoline prices have gone up. Dave Hirshfeld of Mathpro offers an analysis on the surge in cellulosic biofuels production. Dave Hackett offers an explanation for the high gasoline prices on the West Coast. Finally, we update you on some of Stillwater's recent projects.

Bubble Map Update: Supply Disruptions Raise Prices in California



The May Bubble Map shows crude oil prices continuing on the upward trend from last month. WTI is up $7 since our last post at, $59 per barrel on May 18th. The WTI/Brent differential remains at $7 over WTI. The Alaska North Slope price also stays steady at $3 over WTI. Bakken remains at $12 under WTI, while the Western Canadian Select differential tightens to $9 under WTI.  


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What Accounts for the Recent Surge in Cellulosic Biofuels Production?

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by Dave Hirshfeld, MathPro Inc.

 

EPA has pledged to issue proposed renewable fuels volume requirements for 2014, 2015, and 2016 by June 1 and final renewable fuels volume requirements for all three years by November 30. These volume requirements set the annual Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO) for refiners and other obligated parties with respect to renewable fuels (including corn ethanol), advanced biofuels, biomass-based diesel fuel, and cellulosic biofuels (primarily cellulosic ethanol).

 

The late publication of these annual requirements reflect EPA's continuing struggle to reconcile its desire to set aggressive volume obligations in hopes of calling out more advanced biofuels supply with technical and economic realities: the ethanol blendwall, the continuing low production of biomass-based diesel, and the virtual absence of cellulosic ethanol supply.

 

 
"I Didn't Know You Guys Did That!"

Occasionally at cocktail parties, when discussing a problem we've helped solve for a client, we hear, "I didn't know you guys did that!" We try to keep people apprised of all of our services, but sometimes we surprise people. Aside from our Mergers & Acquisitions and Litigation Support assignments, we have been working on some really interesting Policy and Economics projects this year. The list below is just a few of these projects. Take a look - you may be surprised too.
  • A study on the supply and demand impacts associated with an increase in the use of ethanol in the U.S.
  • An ongoing analysis of the effects of California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard
  • An ongoing analysis of the impact of the Renewable Fuels Standard
  • A comprehensive study of West Coast Transportation Fuel Supply and Demand
  • A fuels price forecast for a regional utility
The transportation fuels market is always changing and we're so excited to help guide companies and policy makers through those changes. If you need help with any of these issues, please contact us.
Stillwater Associates is a transportation energy consulting firm. We help our clients understand how fuels get from the source to the service station. If your company is in need of expert advice, please let us know.

Sincerely,

David J. Hackett, President
Stillwater Associates LLC