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by Dave Hirshfeld, MathPro Inc.

In November 2014, the Presidents of the U.S. and China agreed to new curbs on the two

countries' greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, stating that:

• "The U.S. intends to reduce its emissions by 26%-28% below its 2005 level by 2025 and to make its best efforts to reduce its emissions by 28%."
• "China intends to achieve peaking of its emissions around 2030 and to make best efforts to peak early and intends to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20% by 2030."

The agreement received a mixed reception in the U.S. Adherents of catastrophic man-made global warming theory hailed the agreement, some calling it "a deal to save the planet." Other observers dismissed the agreement, noting that it is non-binding, is not to be codified in either law or treaty, is unlikely to win necessary political support, and appears intended mainly to buttress the U.S. negotiating position for the U.N. climate conference (COP21) later this year.

The February Bubble Map finds crude oil prices creeping back up. While the WTI price remains at $49 per barrel, Brent has risen to $9 over WTI. The spike in the price of Brent can be attributed to concerns over lower supply levels due to the unrest in Libya, which has all but shut down crude oil production in that country. The Western Canadian Select discount has narrowed to $4 under WTI, indicating that WCS flows through new pipeline systems to the Gulf Coast have improved. The Alaska North Slope price continues to remain at parity with WTI. The ANS price has decoupled from the Brent price as ANS suppliers are being squeezed out of the Pacific Northwest by crude-by-rail from the Mid Continent.

We're so pleased that Ron Dunner and Ralph Grimmer have joined Stillwater Associates! Both of these greatly experienced executives bring with them their depth of knowledge and command of the transportation fuels markets. We are fortunate to have them on our roster of experts.