In our final 2014 Newsletter we bring you a new Bubble Map that shows how the weakened crude oil market has been a boon to consumers. Our guest columnist, Dave Hirshfeld of Mathpro Inc. writes about the CBO's June report on the feasibility of achieving future RFS mandate volumes. Don't miss Leigh Noda at this week's OPIS LCFS Workshop in San Francisco. If you're there, ask him about Stillwater's LCFS Newsletter coming in 2015. Finally, Dave Hackett spoke at the Moving Crude Supplies to West Coast End Markets Conference on the recent changes in crude oil logistics to the West Coast.
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| Very Merry Bubble Map: A Gift at the Gas Station | |
Filling up the Stillwater Honda Odyssey cost a very jolly $45 this week, the delightful effect of a glut of crude oil supply. The drop in prices at the pump is giving consumers a little unexpected year-end bonus. Crude oil spot prices are the lowest they've been since we started this blog. On Monday WTI hit an all time Bubble Map low of $63.
Mid Continent discounts to WTI are still in the double digits, with Western Canadian select at $10 under and Bakken at $14 under. Eagle Ford and WTI-Midland remain at parity with WTI. And, in another first in Bubble Map history, ANS is also at parity with WTI. Brent and SJVH differentials have narrowed with Brent $3 over and SJVH $4 under WTI. Louisiana Light Sweet and Mexican Maya discounts were at $2 and $4 under WTI respectively.
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| The CBO Finds Future RFS Volume Mandates Pose "Significant Challenges" |
Brought to you by
by Dave Hirshfeld, MathPro Inc.
In June 2014, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) published an analysis of the feasibility and economic implications of achieving future annual renewable fuel mandate volumes for the federal Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS). Here in Regulation City, refining industry advocates praised the CBO analysis; ethanol industry advocates trashed it. Elsewhere, the report attracted little attention. That's too bad, because CBO has made an important contribution to the coming debate over the RFS.
The CBO report (1) lays out the amount by which supplies of the various RFS renewable fuel categories would have to increase to meet the RFS mandate volumes for 2017, (2) assesses the technical feasibility of producing these volumes, and (3) estimates the effects on RIN prices, gasoline and diesel fuel prices, food prices, and CO2 emissions.
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Stillwater Associates is a transportation energy consulting company. We help our clients understand how fuels get from the source to the service station. If your company is in need of expert advice, please let us know.
Sincerely,
David J. Hackett, President
Stillwater Associates LLC |
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Leigh Noda at the OPIS LCFS Workshop
December 11 -12 |
Leigh Noda will be at the OPIS LCFS Workshop in San Francisco December 11 - 12. The Workshop will cover the new proposed LCFS rules that are up for re-adoption in 2015. Leigh is our resident LCFS expert and will be talking to folks about Stillwater's LCFS Newsletter coming in 2015. | |
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| The Changing Landscape of Crude Oil Movements to the West Coast |
On December 3, Dave Hackett spoke at the Moving Crude Supplies to West Coast End Markets Conference in Los Angeles. Dave's presentation on the changes in crude oil movements to the west coast provides an overview of the changes and their significance to players along the crude value chain, from E&Ps in booming plays right through to West Coast refiners. | |
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| Coming Soon! Stillwater's LCFS Newsletter |
Coming in 2015 Stillwater will be offering subscriptions to our California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) Newsletter. This unique publication will offer weekly, monthly and quarterly looks at LCFS credit and deficit trends based on California Air Resources Board (CARB) data. Weekly reports will include a summary of the week's LCFS news, while monthly and quarterly reports will also include Stillwater's analysis of recent trends in the program.
The LCFS continues to evolve. California fuels producers and suppliers must understand the standard in order to comply and compete in this new regulatory environment.
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