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April 21, 2015 - IRAN EDITION
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Decoding the Iran Nuclear Deal:
Key questions, points of divergence, pros and cons,
pending legislation, and essential facts
Edited by Gary Samore, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
April 2015
On April 2, 2015, the EU (on behalf of the P5+1 countries) and Iran announced agreement on "key parameters" for a comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran. The EU-Iran Joint Statement is buttressed by unilateral fact sheets issued by the U.S. and Iran, which provide further details of the framework accord. Not surprisingly, differences have emerged between the U.S. and Iranian versions of the deal. These differences reflect both political spin and remaining issues that have not been resolved. In the next phase of this process, the negotiators will seek to finalize a comprehensive agreement by June 30, 2015.
To assist Members of Congress and others to evaluate the emerging deal, the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School has prepared this Policy Brief summarizing key facts, core concepts, and major arguments for and against the emerging deal. Amidst the sound and fury of claim and counter-claim, the purpose of this Policy Brief is not to advocate support for or opposition to the deal, but rather to provide an objective, nonpartisan summary to inform Members of Congress and others in coming to their own conclusions. The team of experts who prepared this report includes Democrats, Republicans, independents, and internationals, who have many disagreements among themselves, but who agree that this Brief presents the essentials objectively.
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White House Agrees to Give Congress a Say on Iran Deal
Deb Riechmann and Laurie Kellman, AP
Bowing to pressure from Republicans and his own party, President Barack Obama on Tuesday relented to a compromise empowering Congress to reject his emerging nuclear pact with Iran.
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The Iran Deal: Critiques and Rebuttals
Michael Krepon, Arms Control Wonk
April 13, 2015
Critics are trying to have it both ways: The Obama administration's framework agreement is bad because it fanaticizes improved Iranian behavior. Or the agreement is bad because it won't change Iranian behavior. Both critiques are wide of the mark. This agreement has a narrow but essential purpose: it seeks verifiable limits on Iran's capabilities to make nuclear weapons. U.S. observers will probably be the last to recognize improved Iranian behavior, should it occur. Few U.S. analysts predicted that Iran's leaders would accept limits this constraining three years ago, and Americans know far too little about Iran to make confident predictions about its behavior over the next decade and longer. Whether Iran's external policies remain bad or change for the better, a verifiable deal to limit Iran's nuclear capabilities makes good sense.
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A Nuclear Deal that Offers a Safer World
Ernest Moniz, The Washington Post
April 12, 2015
The recent announcement of the Lausanne framework concerning Iran's nuclear program has stimulated a lively public and political debate. This is an important discussion that the nation deserves to have, and it must be informed by clarity on the specifics of the negotiated technical parameters for a final Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
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Divergent Descriptions of the Iran Nuclear Agreement
Blaise Misztal, Bipartisan Policy
April 8, 2015
The political framework for a final deal on Iran's nuclear program, which will be called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was agreed to after many false starts and extended deadlines by the United States, its international partners and Iran on April 2, 2015. Since it is an outline to guide further negotiations and not itself a final deal, the framework agreement only offers some concrete details about what the JCPOA will contain-the number of centrifuges Iran would be allowed to operate, for example-while only sketching general principles in other areas.
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Iran's Nuclear Breakout Time: A Fact Sheet
Olli Heinonen, The Washington Institute
March 28, 2015
With reports that Washington and its partners may reach a nuclear accord with Iran in the coming days, a former senior IAEA safeguards official answers the most pressing questions about Tehran's program and how the agreement might affect its capabilities.
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Former Iranian Ambassador: Historic Nuclear Deal Has Prevented a New War in the Middle East
Democracy Now!
April 3, 2015
After eight days of talks in Switzerland, Iran and world powers have reached a framework agreement on curbing Iran's nuclear program for at least a decade. In return, the United States and Europe plan to lift economic sanctions on Iran. As part of the deal, Iran must reduce the number of its centrifuges that can be used to enrich uranium into a bomb by more than two-thirds. Iran also has to redesign a power plant so it cannot produce weapons-grade plutonium, eliminate much of its stockpile of low-enriched uranium and be subject to regular international nuclear inspections. While U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the deal would contribute to peace and stability in the region, praise for the deal was not universal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned the agreement as a "threat to Israel's existence." We speak to Seyed Hossein Mousavian, a former nuclear negotiator for Iran. He served as Iran's ambassador to Germany from 1990 to 1997. He joins us from Princeton, New Jersey, where he is an associate research scholar at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. Last year, he published the book, "Iran and the United States: An Insider's View on the Failed Past and the Road to Peace."
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Why the Framework Nuclear Agreement with
Iran is Good for Both Sides
Ariane Tabatabai, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
After months of negotiations, Iran and six world powers have finally reached a framework agreement on limiting the country's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. The deal announced on Thursday is intended as the basis for a comprehensive agreement to be worked out by the end of June.
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There's No Deterring an Apocalyptic Nuclear Iran
Thomas Sowell, National Review
March 31, 2015
Recent statements from United Nations officials, that Iran is already blocking their existing efforts to keep track of what is going on in their nuclear program, should tell anyone who does not already know it that any agreement with Iran will be utterly worthless in practice. It doesn't matter what the terms of the agreement are, if Iran can cheat.
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Jessica Tuchman Mathews, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
April 6, 2015
During the months of negotiating a nuclear agreement with Iran, opponents of a deal have loudly anticipated failure, either because a deal wouldn't be reached, wouldn't be good enough, or wouldn't be upheld by Tehran. Charging that the impending deadline made the US too eager to reach a deal, House Speaker John Boehner unaccountably made the pressure worse by announcing that if a deal wasn't struck soon, Congress would immediately impose new sanctions on Iran-an act that would preemptively destroy any hope of a final agreement.
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The Experts on the Iranian Framework Agreement
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
April 3, 2015
Six world powers-the United States, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany, or the P5+1-and Iran announced a framework agreement Thursday on limitations to the Iranian nuclear program. Very generally, the framework agreement sets out a series of actions that would limit the scope of the Iranian nuclear program and restrain Iran from producing nuclear weapons; in exchange, international sanctions instituted because of the Iranian nuclear program would be eased. In the wake of the announcement, the Bulletin asked numerous experts on the situation to offer their assessments of the framework agreement. We set no parameters on these expert comments, which are offered here in hopes they will inspire discussion on the prospects for a final agreement by a June 30 deadline.
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