Here are 13 of the scariest roads in the world. The death Road" in Bolivia kills more than 100 people per year, reaches 11,500 feet above the valley floor below, and has no guardrails. Find out which other highways you need to avoid.
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What's the best way to store your essential digital data, like legal documents and archival photos? You're going to be surprised.
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Waiters using face-recognition software combined with Google's next-gen eyewear to identify everyone at your table and make personalized menu recommendations? Top food trends for 2015.
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Do you have a fondness for the cuddly Michelin Man? You'll be shocked to see how he started out.
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The last few generations of Americans have been indoctrinated with the idea that a college degree is an absolute must-have in today's economy. Just because a college degree comes with many benefits doesn't mean it's right for everyone. Here are the arguments for and against getting a college education.
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This month we welcome the New Year with several articles on how to be prepared.
In our lead article by Commonwealth Financial Network you'll get a "heads up" on several life and financial decisions that you'll need to think about in 2015.
Considering the continuing rise in the cost of air travel, we've included a piece on saving money on vacation. We often forget that the U.S. has it's own Caribbean island just off the coast of Florida - Puerto Rico. The Island is very beautiful and has a colorful history - and no currency exchange needed.
We've heard from some of you with comments on the newsletter. Keep them coming. We need to know what you like. As usual, we also welcome any questions you may have on your financial situation and investments. You can contact us at 614.888.2121 or toll-free at 877.389.2121 or chornyak@chornyak.com.
Embrace the new year!
Joe
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Year-end financial planning
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Commonwelath Financial Network provides this end-of-year checklist to help you get ready for 2015. With 2014 drawing to a close, it's a great time to begin organizing your finances for the New Year. To help you start 2015 on the right foot, we've put together a list of financial planning topics that are worth reviewing. Health and wellness: Flexible-spending accounts
Money in a flexible spending account (FSA) generally must be used by year-end or it will be forfeited. Recently, however, the IRS modified this rule to allow participants to carry over up to $500 of unused funds into the next year. (Your employer plan must elect to participate in this option, so be sure to check your plan terms to see if you can take advantage of the new rule.) If your employer has not elected the carry-over option, now's the time to schedule those doctor's appointments and stock up on items that are eligible for flexible spending. Taking action immediately may help relieve some last-minute headaches and ensure that you don't lose your hard-earned dollars. Additionally, open enrollment for certain employee benefit plans begins around this time of year. If you're not using an FSA, take stock of your qualifying expenses and consider whether setting up an FSA for 2015 would make sense. If you already use an FSA, assess how much extra you have left in the account (or how much of a deficit you ran) and recalculate your allotment for the New Year. Retirement planningReview your retirement plan allocation and contribution elections. If you're not taking full advantage of any matching features or potential tax benefits, consider maximizing your contributions. It's also a good time to ensure that your allocation remains in line with your objectives. Recharacterization of Roth IRA rollovers or conversions. If you converted a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA during 2014 and paid tax on the conversion, mark your calendar now to allow plenty of time to meet the October 15, 2015, deadline for recharacterizing (i.e., undoing) the conversion. Taxes, taxes, taxesRMDs. If you're turning 70�, you'll need to devise a strategy for taking required minimum distributions from your traditional IRA and 401(k) plans. Estimated taxesBe sure to take potentially large bonuses and a prosperous business year into account when considering your taxes for 2014. You may have to file estimated taxes or increase the upcoming January payment. Managing marginal tax bracketsIn 2013, a number of new tax provisions took effect. If you are on the edge of these tax thresholds, you may be able to defer or accelerate income or deductions to help minimize taxes. - The 39.6-percent marginal tax bracket affects taxpayers with taxable incomes in excess of $406,750 (individual), $457,600 (married filing jointly), $432,200 (head of household), and $228,800 (married filing separately).
- The 20-percent capital gain tax rate applies to those in the 39.6-percent marginal tax bracket.
- Itemized deductions and personal exemption phase-outs affect those with adjusted gross incomes above $254,200 (individual) and $305,050 (married filing jointly).
- The 3.8-percent surtax is applied to the lesser of net investment income or the excess of modified adjusted gross income over $200,000 (individual) and $250,000 (married filing jointly).
Too little or too much withholdingWorkers with gross earned income of more than $200,000 may have had too little or too much tax withholding in 2014. Employers may have withheld an additional 0.90-percent tax on incomes over $200,000 without regard to the taxpayer's withholding status, which would put these taxpayers at a higher threshold. Other taxpayers may have had too little withholding because of other income from second jobs that was unknown to the employer. Employees should plan to take a credit on their returns or pay additional taxes. Reporting losses on stock salesBe aware of important deadlines regarding trading date closings. A trade to sell a long position must be executed by the close of the last trading date of the current year. Similarly, a trade to sell a short position must be executed so that it settles by the last trading date of the current year. Estate planningTo help ensure that your estate plan stays in tune with your goals and needs, it's important to review and update it on an ongoing basis. If you haven't done so during 2014, take time before the end of the year to: - Check trust funding
- Account for any life changes
- Update beneficiary designations
- Review trustee and agent appointments
- Review provisions of powers of attorney and health care directives
- Prepare for the distribution of personal effects
- Get a firm understanding of all of your documents
Saving and goal-settingDid you set savings goals for the current year? Realistically assess how well you've met those goals and think about your goals for the upcoming year. There's no reason you can't make some financial resolutions along with your other New Year's vows. If you determine that you're off track, let us help you develop and monitor a financial plan. We're happy to go over the topics that are most relevant to your personal situation, so you can better prepare for the coming year. This material has been provided for general informational purposes only and does not constitute either tax or legal advice. Although we go to great lengths to make sure our information is accurate and useful, we recommend you consult a tax preparer, professional tax advisor, or lawyer.
IRS CIRCULAR 230 DISCLOSURE:
To ensure compliance with requirements imposed by the IRS, we inform you that any U.S. tax advice contained in this communication (including any attachments) is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of (i) avoiding penalties under the Internal Revenue Code, or (ii) promoting, marketing, or recommending to another party any transaction or matter addressed herein.
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10 things not to buy in 2015
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MarketWatch.com warns us that "Yesterday's hot trend, tomorrow's buyer's remorse." 1. Cable TVThough cable providers still have plenty of subscribers--roughly 101.7 million Americans, in 2014, according to research firm IBISWorld--those numbers are declining. The firm predicts that cable providers will lose a net of around one million subscribers for each of the next several years, reaching 97 million in 2019. One of the reasons for this subscriber defection: Consumers are increasingly embracing (often cheaper) cable alternatives. Indeed, PricewaterhouseCoopers notes that subscriptions to cable alternatives like Netflix (up 25% over 2013), Amazon Prime (up 14%) and Hulu (up 3%)-each of which costs around $8 a month-are on the rise. Next year, you may have more reason than ever to cut the cord, as cable TV rates are rising, even as more relatively inexpensive streaming options emerge. In 2015, research group NPD expects the average pay-TV bill (for basic and premium channels) will hit $123 a month, up from $86 in 2011. What's more, in 2015, there will be even more streaming options to watch: In October, HBO, Univision, and CBS all announced new stand-alone streaming services. "There are a lot more options out there so we don't all have to subscribe to cable anymore," says Sarah Kahn, an industry analyst for IBISWorld. -- Catey Hill 2. Name-brand razorbladesAmericans love their Gillette razorblades-so much so that the shaving giant controls 66% of the nearly $13 billion shaving industry. But just because Gillette is popular doesn't mean it's cheap, especially if you're buying the blades (or cartridges, to be exact) at the corner drugstore. Which is why more shavers are turning to membership programs; the Dollar Shave Club, whose membership has grown by nearly 200% in the past year to 1.3 million, is perhaps the most prominent example. Such clubs sell blades on a mail-order subscription basis for a fraction of the cost. A blade purchased through Dollar Shave can run as little as $1.50; by contrast, a Gillette blade can run as much as $5. And the blades aren't necessarily inferior: A survey by the grooming-oriented Sharpologist website gave high marks to just about every low-cost Gillette competitor. Still, what if a shaver swears by Gillette? Gillette and shopping experts says consumers can still find ways to save on their beloved blades by buying them at discount retailers (Costco is an oft-mentioned example) or creating what amounts to their own subscription model--meaning purchasing the brand-name blades in larger quantities on a recurring basis through sites like Amazon.com and Drugstore.com. -- Charles Passy 3. Bottled waterWho would pay $2 for what amounts to a bottle of tap water? Millions of Americans, it turns out. In the four decades since Perrier water was launched in the U.S. market in the mid-1970s, U.S. consumption of bottled water has surged 2,700%, to 10.1 billion gallons in 2013, according to the Beverage Marketing Corporation. And sales in the U.S. rose 4% year-over-year in 2013 to $12.3 billion. The Beverage Marketing Corporation predicts that bottled water will become the top-selling packaged beverage in 2020, up from No. 2 currently. Scares over possible water contamination have helped boost demand for bottled water over the last few decades, experts say. The American public thinks bottled water is going to be safer and cleaner than tap water, says Mae Wu, attorney in the health program at National Resources Defense Council, a nonprofit environmental advocacy group based in Washington, D.C., but "for the most part, that's not true." Indeed, 45% of bottled water brands are sourced from the municipal water supply-that's the same source as what comes out of the tap, according to Peter Gleick, a scientist and author of "Bottled and Sold: The Story Behind Our Obsession with Bottled Water." Bottled water sourced from municipal water supplies include Dasani, owned by Coca-Cola and Aquafina, owned by PepsiCo. Consumers can purify their own tap water for a fraction of the cost, says Nick Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx, a brokerage and a services firm. It's more economical and better for the environment to filter tap water at home, "and one way to avoid using a lot of scrap plastic," he says. Filters from companies such as Brita and Pur start at around $15 for a year's supply. --Quentin Fottrell 4. Credit monitoring services and identity theft insuranceThe year 2014 saw an almost unrelenting avalanche of security breaches that struck retailers, banks and medical providers, among many others. At least 744 data breaches have been disclosed this year, with more than 115 million consumers' records exposed, according to the Identity Theft Resource Center. To protect themselves and their data, consumers may opt for credit monitoring services or identity theft insurance. But such coverage, which can cost anywhere from $25 to more than $100 a year, may not be worth paying for, consumer advocates say. "It depends on how important peace of mind is to you, because that's essentially what you're buying at the end of the day," says Al Pascual, senior analyst for security, risk and fraud at Javelin Strategy & Research. Some credit monitoring services place all of a person's financial information in one place, making it easier to check your account for fraudulent activity. These services also often help victims of identity theft get through the crisis, aiding with paperwork and potential fees or expenses like lost wages, if a person has to take off work to deal with the fallout, though such extensive cases are rare. But you may not need that kind of help. Banks have zero liability policies that protect consumers from unauthorized charges. For free, people can opt to receive alerts each time a transaction is made over a certain value; they can also ask the credit bureaus to put a security freeze on their account to prevent fraudsters from opening new lines of credit. And if you decide you want the protection, chances are you already have multiple offers in your inbox that can give it you free-given that many breached companies extend these services to customers free of charge to save their reputations. -- Priya Anand 5. DVDs and CDsCompact discs and DVDs have going the way of the dodo, and streaming media will keep that trend going in 2015, experts say. Sales of DVDs and high-definition Blu-ray discs dropped by 8% to $7.78 billion last year, and are expected to have fallen even further in 2014, according to Digital Entertainment Group, an industry trade group. Revenue for DVD rental subscriptions from companies like Netflix and Red Box-plummeted 19% last year to $1.02 billion. And while digital movie purchases are playing catch-up on DVDs, revenue still soared by 47% to $1.19 billion last year. Digital music tracks also declined for the first time in 2013, according to Nielsen SoundScan, and that slide continued throughout 2014. On-demand streaming of music rose 42% year-over-year to 70 billion songs in the first half of 2014, while digital track sales fell 13% to 594 million in the same period. Sales of compact discs dropped by 19% year-over-year to $716 million in the first half of 2014, according to by revenue in the Recording Industry Association of America, although vinyl LP sales surged 43% to $146 million in the same period. -- Quentin Fottrell Click here to read the rest of the list.
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Top affordable vacation destinations for 2015
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"Travelers can expect to find some great deals worldwide in 2015. Whether you want to take a trip to the tropics, head to the Far East or stay in the good ol' U.S.A., there are several spots where you can get a lot of bang for your vacation buck,"says Cameron Huddleston of Kiplinger.Here are four bargain destinations for domestic travelers and three international destinations that will offer significant savings due to increased competition for tourists.
Domestic vacations
DallasThis Texas city tops discount travel site Priceline.com's list of the most affordable destinations for 2015. Not only does it have the lowest average hotel room rate ($86.31 per night) of any major metropolitan area, but also Dallas boasts many attractions, according to Priceline. The city hosts festivals throughout the year, has several arts venues and five major professional sports teams.
Texas Hill CountryAfter a stop in Dallas, head south to Texas Hill Country -- Austin and San Antonio, in particular. These two cities are primed to open nearly a half-dozen new hotels next year, says Travelzoo senior editor Gabe Saglie. So inventory to fill means deals will be available. Plus, there are plenty of arts, culture, history, nightlife, and outdoor activities to soak up in Austin and San Antonio.
OrlandoAlthough Orlando's main attraction, Walt Disney World, can be pricey, visitors can find plenty of affordable accommodations outside the theme park. The Florida city ranks third on Priceline's list of most affordable destinations for 2015, with an average daily room rate of $89.57. In addition to staying off-property, here are more ways to save money at Walt Disney World. And Priceline travel editor Brian Ek recommends avoiding Orlando during the peak spring break travel period, when pricing isn't as competitive because hotels quickly fill up with tourists.
Salt Lake City
The capital of Utah is the gateway to nearby ski resorts and several popular national parks including Arches, Yellowstone, and Grand Teton. Plus, there's plenty to do in and around Salt Lake City, especially for outdoor enthusiasts. It's Priceline's second most-affordable city for 2015, with an average daily room rate of $88.24.
International vacations
Asian cruises
China may not seem like an obvious choice for cruising, but Shanghai has poured serious money into building its cruising infrastructure to handle the world's largest ships, Saglie says. As a result, cruise lines are adding new ships and itineraries throughout Asia, including China, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka and Thailand. As cruise lines compete to fill their cabins, expect to see more deals, he says.
Brazil
Brazil's investment in infrastructure for the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics will put pressure on travel companies to entice international travelers to the region, Saglie says. So you can expect to see some great discounts on hotels - including the 400 new hotels that will be operational by 2016. Travelers flying out of Florida can also take advantage of the increased competition generated from new routes out of Miami offered by American Airlines), and new routes out of Fort Lauderdale and Orlando offered by Azul Brazilian Airlines, he says.
Puerto Rico
Americans don't need a passport to escape to this tropical island that is a territory of the U.S. Thanks to the addition of new and increased services from airports around the U.S. in recent months, flights to Puerto Rico are now among the cheapest to the Caribbean, Saglie says.
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Securities and Advisory Services Offered Through Commonwealth Financial Network, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. Fixed-insurance products and services offered by Chornyak & Associates, LTD are separate and unrelated to Commonwealth.
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Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor's. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000� Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index. The Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury's daily yield curve. The Barclays Capital Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Barclays Capital Municipal Bond Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million. The Barclays Capital U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) Index measures the performance of intermediate (1- to 10-year) U.S. TIPS.
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Market Watch
Another strong year for U.S. markets
For the second year in a row, U.S. markets were the place for investors to be, closing the year with a very strong fourth quarter despite a somewhat weak December. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.12 percent in December, but up a much stronger 5.20 percent for the quarter. The S&P 500 Index actually was down 0.25 percent in December, though it posted a 4.93-percent gain for the quarter. The Nasdaq lost 1.16 percent for the month, pulling down its quarterly gain to a still very strong 5.40 percent.
The strong fourth-quarter returns capped a strong year. Gains were widespread, with the Dow up 10.04 percent for the year, the Nasdaq up an even stronger 13.40 percent, and the S&P 500 doing best of all, gaining 13.69 percent, well above average annual levels of return.
Market gains came on the back of a steadily expanding economic recovery. After a weak first quarter, U.S. economic growth accelerated, with the most recent report on gross domestic product (GDP) growth announcing a 5-percent gain for the third quarter. Corporate revenues and earnings increased as well, providing support for increasing stock prices.
An increase in market
valuation levels supported further share price gains. At year-end, U.S. markets were at or close to all-time highs. Technical factors remained strong, with all indices well above major moving average levels.
Looking forward, conditions may prove less favorable, with lower oil prices driving down revenues and earnings in the energy sector and a strong dollar bringing down the impact of foreign revenues. These factors may well have contributed to the anemic December results.
International markets underperformed U.S. markets over the month, quarter, and year, with December being very weak and taking foreign markets into the red. The MSCI EAFE Index, which represents developed international markets, was down 3.46 percent for December and 3.57 percent for the fourth quarter. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index did even worse, declining 4.82 percent in December and 4.88 percent for the fourth quarter.
For the year, developed markets were down 4.90 percent, and emerging markets dropped 4.63 percent, with the bulk of the decline coming in December. Technical factors remained soft, with both indices well below their 200-day moving averages. Weak economic
factors, in addition to political difficulties around the world, suggest that this down trend may continue through 2015. Declines in the prices of oil and other commodities hit emerging markets hard, while rising political conflict and continued economic stagnation, particularly in Europe, weighed on developed markets.
Fixed income had a relatively strong year in the U.S. The Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index was up 0.10 percent for December and 1.79 for the fourth quarter, contributing to a 5.97-percent gain for the year. This strong performance was driven by a consistent, and unexpected, decline in interest rates throughout 2014.
Rates on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond declined from 3 percent to 2.17 percent during the year, despite the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to taper and ultimately end its intervention in the bond market. The decline in rates was largely driven by uncertainty elsewhere in the world, coupled with ongoing governmental stimulus from China, Japan, and, as widely expected, in Europe.
Even as the Fed moved out of the market, other central banks either stayed in or moved to stimulate further. Uncertainty also drove a flight to safety, with investors moving to U.S. assets. These two factors combined to drive substantial outperformance by longer-term government bonds, with the Barclays Capital U.S. Long Treasury Index doing the best of any U.S. fixed income sector.
Economic recovery hits escape velocityThe major economic story for the fourth quarter was the Fed's move to stop stimulating the economy by buying bonds, signaling that, in the Fed's judgment, the economy was now strong enough not to need the additional support. The decision was driven by ongoing economic improvement, notably in employment. Although concerns remain, and the Fed continues to keep short-term interest rates at very low levels, it is now a matter of when rates will be increased. Because the data continues to show positive surprises, the next step in economic normalization (i.e., an interest rate hike) is widely expected to materialize in the first half of 2015. As of the end of 2014, the U.S. recovery was moving from strength to strength. Third-quarter results, noted previously, showed GDP growth of 5 percent, the strongest level since 2003. Moreover, as the chart shows below, there has been a consistent increase in the growth level over the past few years. The increased growth has been driven by a substantial improvement in the employment situation. Just as with the GDP numbers, employment statistics have posted multiyear highs. November's report, the most recent available, showed that: - Total jobs had increased by 321,000, the highest level since early 2012.
- Job creation has now totaled more than 200,000 for the 10th straight month, the longest streak since 1995.
- The most recent three months have seen a total of 865,000 jobs created, the highest level since 1999.
- Through the first 11 months of 2014, the economy added 2,549,000 jobs, the highest level since 2000-even with one month to go in the year and a very weak first quarter.
- Even the major remaining concern-slow wage growth-showed signs of improvement at year-end, along with increased consumer spending. These factors suggest that the economy could continue to grow at a healthy rate for the fourth quarter and into 2015.
Low oil prices surprise the world
Continued economic growth seems even more likely given the recent crash in the price of oil. Oil spot prices declined about 50 percent from their peak levels in 2014, with most of the decline coming in the last quarter. Declines in oil prices act as economic stimulus, with lower gasoline
prices putting more money in the pockets of consumers, which can then get spent on other things, helping growth. Lower energy prices can also benefit companies, in the form of lower costs, which helps profit margins and potentially stock prices.
Because most of the oil price decline has been recent, we have probably not seen its full effect yet, which suggests that economic growth will continue to accelerate. Although there are some downsides to declining oil prices-in the form of lower investment and hiring, particularly in the energy sector-the overall impact is very positive.
Lower oil prices will also have a beneficial effect in many other areas of the world, especially in Europe and Japan. As noted above, both continue to stagnate economically, and lower energy costs will act as a much-needed stimulus, just as in the U.S.
Although low oil prices will not last forever, at this point it appears likely that prices will remain low through most of 2015, which should act as a continuing stimulus to the U.S. and global economies.
U.S. picture good, but risks remain
With the U.S. economy showing signs of continued growth, 2015 is getting underway on a positive note, but substantial risks remain, and investors should be cautious.
Looking at the world as a whole, Europe and Japan are at risk economically, and, in the case of Europe, at risk politically. In addition, even though China's growth has continued strong, its rising debt has forced the government to continue stimulus, suggesting that risk remains. Perhaps most worrisome, though, is Russia, which ended 2014 in economic crisis and remains in a geopolitical faceoff with Europe and the U.S. over Ukraine.
Here in the U.S., despite strong economic and corporate fundamentals, stock market valuations are very high. The potential for earnings downgrades due to the strong dollar and poor results from the energy sector is very real. Although expected earnings growth has already been downgraded for 2015, the risk of overvaluation remains.
Even with all these risks, we enter 2015 in a much better place than we were at the beginning of 2014. The U.S. economy is solid, the trends are good, and we are well positioned to overcome any challenges. As always, a long-term perspective and a diversified portfolio are the best ways to take advantage of the many opportunities and overcome the many risks.
Authored by Brad McMillan, Senior vice president, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network.
All information according to Bloomberg, unless stated otherwise.
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