HeaderNew

Call us at 614.888.2121 or toll-free at 877.389.2121.           Visit our web site: www.chornyak.com.
Avoiding a personal financial filibuster

BarChart
There can be no guarantee that any particular yield or return will be achieved from any investment.

Consider the following propositions before you vote on a specific action - or inaction.

Markets tend to be party-neutral over time.

Based on data from Morningstar�, the S&P 500 Index's average annual return was negative in only four election years; in two-1940 and 2000-a Democrat was in office, and in the other two-1932 and 2008-a Republican was in office. Otherwise, the average return during the last 21 presidential election years is 11 percent, which is very close to the average return of all years between 1925 and 2011, based on return data from Standard & Poor's.

A vote against timing the market.

Attempting to gauge the right time to get in or out of the market can be a losing proposition, as noted by the chart above.

From the White House to your house.

Regardless of who lives in the White House, most of us are more interested in our own financial house. There are numerous factors that can affect your long-term financial strategy. The top four are:
  • Inflation.  In order to maintain your standard of living over time, your assets need to keep up with inflation. Inflation is generally measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which jumped from 1.6 percent in 2010 to 3.2 percent in 2011. It's widely thought that inflation will remain low for some time; however, keep in mind that the CPI does not measure two consumer goods near and dear to your bottom line-gas and groceries.  
  • Interest rates.  The federal funds rate, influenced by Federal Reserve policy, dictates short-term interest rates. Interest rates are low and are expected to remain so for some time, which is good news if you have outstanding debt that can be refinanced. It could also mean, however, that your investments in fixed income may be producing a yield lower than the rate of inflation.  
  • Market volatility.  Peaks and valleys aside, over the long term the market has remained an effective hedge against inflation. As previously discussed, it's easy to panic when things get bumpy, but reacting to fear can result in lost opportunity.  
  • Taxes.  Tax increases are always a concern, no matter who is Commander-in-Chief. A financial professional can advise you on the best mix of taxable, tax-deferred, and tax-free investments for you.
A trusted advisor* can help you develop a strategy around all of these factors-and more. Even the best politician would be nothing without advisors and strategy, so embrace the spirit of the election by adopting these two timeless tactics.

And remember . . . Presidential candidates and agendas are based on four-year plans, but your personal financial plan is based on a much longer timeline. So, ask yourself: Will your current strategy last as long as campaign promises or throughout the long term?

� 2012 Commonwealth Financial Network

*We're here to elaborate upon any of the issues mentioned in this article.  Feel free to contact us at 614-888-2121, toll-free at 877-379-2121, or chornyak@chornyak.com with any questions you may have.

When should elderly drivers hang up the car keys?

WomanDriver  
Should drivers over 80 have special requirements for license renewal? Kiplinger discusses concerns, recommendations, and laws surrounding aged drivers.

As a group, seniors age 80 and older have the highest rate of fatal crashes per mile driven -- even higher than for teens -- according to the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Simply put, too many people continue driving when it's no longer safe for them to do so.

Vision problems, slower reactions and other effects of aging increase the risk of crashes. But most state legislatures ignore the problem. In Virginia, where I live, the only nod toward aging drivers' safety is a required vision test after age 80, but licenses are good for eight years. Only 19 states make seniors renew their licenses more often than younger drivers. Half of those states cut eight- to ten-year renewal periods down to four to six years -- only Illinois and New Mexico require annual renewal. Illinois is the only state to mandate that drivers retake the road test as they age.

Driving represents independence and freedom, in addition to providing mobility, and politicians aren't eager to take on seniors by making driver's-license renewals more stringent. If you have ever approached a spouse, parent, or friend about giving up driving, you can appreciate why. But state lawmakers largely sidestep the issue, so it's up to families to take action when a loved one is no longer a safe driver.

The right approach. If you suspect that an older family member's driving skills have seriously deteriorated, take a ride with him. Note whether he has trouble judging gaps in traffic, following traffic signals and road signs, maneuvering or parking the car, or remembering the route. If there's a problem, "address it head-on," says Jake Nelson, director of traffic safety advocacy and research at AAA. "Most people wait until after a crash and it's too late," he says. But you should act before an accident occurs.

Choose the most appropriate person in your family to broach the subject. Miriam Zucker, a geriatric care manager, suggests starting with the positives, emphasizing safety, and perhaps the need to back off driving because of a medical condition. Say something like, "Dad, you've been a safe driver for 60 years, but with your cataracts, I know it's harder for you to drive at night. If you got hurt or hurt someone else, that would be awful." Unless it's clear the driver is unsafe all the time, suggest limiting driving to daytime hours -- and perhaps staying off highways.

Before you have the conversation, investigate transportation options in your area and their cost. Calculate how much money your family member would save by driving less or not at all, and point out that the savings could be used for other ways of getting around.
When an aging parent resists giving up driving, some families resort to disabling the car or hiding the keys. But it's better to let the state department of motor vehicles make the decision. Often, the best way to make that happen is to take your case to your parent's doctor. "Let the physician be the bad guy," says Sharon Brangman, chief of geriatrics at Upstate Medical University, in Syracuse, N.Y.

Rules governing physicians, however, vary from state to state. In some, including New York, doctors can't contact the DMV regarding a patient without the patient's permission. In others, such as New Jersey, doctors are required to report patients they don't believe should be behind the wheel anymore. (To see the laws in your state and more information about elder driving safety, go to SeniorDriving.AAA.com.)

A report to the DMV may trigger a review of your parent's driving record or an order to retest the driver. It could also lead to a health evaluation. Depending on where you live, the report may be anonymous. If all else fails, you may have to obtain guardianship over your parent and get a court order to prevent him from driving, says Shirley Whitenack, a lawyer in New Jersey who specializes in eldercare law.                                                           

  

How to negotiate your medical bills like a pro     

   Hospital
 
With medical costs constantly on the rise, it's good to know ways to negotiate with hospitals and doctors in case the need arises.  This article from mint.com, a useful web site for money management tips, underlines the need to learn about what you or your insurance company are actually paying for services.

Here's a secret to lowering your medical bills: Just ask. Most people who try to negotiate a bill get some kind of discount. While it may feel strange, there's rarely ever a set price for health care services. Medical providers are always negotiating rates with insurance companies, so why can't you?

Negotiate up front

Before you even have a medical test or procedure, ask about the cost and whether any discounts are available. Your provider may be able to work with you on keeping the costs down or you can tell them that you are looking around at other providers who offer the same service.

If you're not set on a specific provider, the website FairCareMD offers a place where patients can search for providers who are willing to negotiate prices.

Figure out whom to ask

Do you already have a big bill? Find out who's responsible - your insurance plan or your provider. If you have don't have insurance, the answer is obvious.

But if you do, figuring out what happened with the bill might make things easier.

Did your health insurance deny a treatment? Or did your physician just charge an astronomical price? Find out first so you know not only who to negotiate with, but how.

Don't wait
As soon as you know that you may have trouble paying a bill, bring it up with your provider. Don't wait until it's past due, or they may be less willing to work with you.

Find the fair price

Arm yourself with information on the standard price for your medical procedure. The Health Care Blue Book is the best reference for fair market prices, as well as tips on how to negotiate a bill.

Get an itemized bill

For hospital stays or more complex procedures, ask for an itemized bill. This will allow you to find billing mistakes and negotiate individual items. For example, you might have been charged for medications that were ordered but never administered.

Pay with cash

Some providers will give you a discount for paying right away in cash. Avoiding the credit card fees and more money in your pocket are great incentives, right?

Set up a payment plan

Ask your provider about setting up regular installments to pay down your bill over time. Some will give you a discount when you agree to a set payment plan. If they are not willing to lower your bill, at least ask for interest-free payments.

After you have a plan set up, stick to it. If you make payments on time, your provider may forgive remaining the balance after a certain amount has been paid.


Know your flier's rights


GettingBumped

With many of us flying during the holidays and taking winter vacations, this article from CNN Money provides some useful information about what you can do if airline-caused mishaps occur.


Whoever dubbed the holidays the most wonderful time of year must not have needed to fly home.

Still, there are things you can do to protect yourself in case of a major travel disruption, whether caused by an overbooked plane or the next Superstorm Sandy. Here's a look at some commonplace travel setbacks, and how to cope with them.

You get bumped: When you're bumped involuntarily, you don't have to take a voucher, says Alexander Anolik, a California lawyer who specializes in travel.

On U.S. routes, the law entitles you to a cash payment of 200% of the one-way fare, up to $650, if your new flight will arrive one to two hours later than the original.

More than two hours and you get 400%, up to $1,300. If the fare isn't on your ticket, the sum is based on the cheapest ticket sold.

Your bags are lost: When an airline loses your bag on a U.S. flight, it must refund bag fees and reimburse you up to $3,300.
You'll need to establish how much your stuff is worth, though, so photograph valuables, hold on to any receipts for new items, and file a loss complaint with the airline, also e-mailing the DOT at airconsumer@dot.gov.

Your flight is delayed: U.S. airlines are not obligated to compensate you when you're delayed -- though if you're stuck on the tarmac for more than two hours, they must provide snacks and water.

Take an international flight, however, and you may be better off. People flying into the EU on a European carrier (or out of an EU airport on any airline) get meal reimbursements and, for delays of more than five hours, a refund.

Keep the trip on track

Flying isn't the only place you could run into problems. Try these strategies for resolving other common travel tough spots:

A missed cruise: Missed the boat because of an airline delay?
Unless you booked your flight through the cruise line, the line is not required to compensate you. Carolyn Spencer Brown of CruiseCritic.com suggests flying in a day early or getting an insurance policy that covers weather problems (most start at 5% of the trip cost).

An overbooked hotel: When a hotel can't honor your confirmed reservation, it's responsible for rebooking you elsewhere to avoid a contract violation.

Typically, if the new room is more expensive, your original hotel will cover the difference. If no better or equivalent room can be found, try asking for a credit for a future stay or another perk.



What's happening now

RainShield  

Rain Shield is an attempt to solve the age-old problems of the traditional umbrella by acknowledging the way rain really works. It has no sharp parts to stab fellow pedestrians, and no "bones" or joints for gusts to invert.

Tips from the "garage sale millionaire": Along with signed presidential memorabilia, the best items to consider purchasing for resale value... include fine art, antiques, Beatles or Elvis collectables, coins, toy trains, rare books, antique firearms, antique furniture, china and some baseball cards and comic books.

Is there treasure in second-hand stores?  When an anonymous donor gave a Salvador Dali original to Goodwill as an early holiday gift last month, the staff thought it was junk. 

Despite a slowly improving economy and a three-year-old stock market rebound, Americans today are more worried about their retirement finances than they were at the end of the Great Recession in 2009. (Pew Research) 

 

Ten high-tech gifts for the little genius in your life
- clever robots, gross-out dinosaurs, and other toys will delight the technologically inclined child. 
 

  



This communication is strictly intended for individuals residing in the States of:  AL, AR, AZ, CA, CO, CT, FL, GA, IA, IL, IN, KY, LA, MA, ME, MI, MT, NC, NY, OH, PA, SC, TX, VA WI, WV.  No offers may be made or accepted from any resident outside these States due to various state requirements and registration requirements regarding investment products and services.
 
Securities and Advisory Services Offered Through Commonwealth Financial Network, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. Fixed-insurance products and services offered by Chornyak & Associates, LTD are separate and unrelated to Commonwealth.

This informational e-mail is an advertisement. To opt out of receiving future messages, follow the "Unsubscribe" instructions below.

Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor's. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000� Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index. The Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury's daily yield curve. The Barclays Capital Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Barclays Capital Municipal Bond Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million. The Barclays Capital U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) Index measures the performance of intermediate (1- to 10-year) U.S. TIPS.
December 2012
JoeSrNewJune12
HolidayLights
Holiday lights at the Columbus Zoo and Aquarium
We at Chornyak & Associates wish our clients and friends all of the joys that the holiday season has to offer.  Let's all put aside our concerns for the country's financial future that we're constantly exposed to in the news media, and have a truly peaceful and festive season with friends and family!  Columbus offers lots of holiday activities to extend the celebration outside the home.

 

Our feature article this month, provided by Commonwealth Financial Network, points out that no matter which party is in the White House, it is unlikely that there will be a negative influence on the stock market. The major influences on the market continue to be:  inflation, interest rates, market volatility, and taxes.  We agree that it is important to have a trusted financial advisor to develop a strategy for dealing with these factors.  You can contact us at 614-888-2121 (toll-free 877-389-2121), or by e-mail at: chornyak@chornyak.com.  

 

Kiplinger gives us some rather grim facts about the on-the-road record of drivers over 80, and suggests some ways of dealing with the issue.  If there is an aged driver in your family or someone close to you who fits the  cautions found in the article, perhaps it is time to think about options.

 

You may not experience difficulties with higher health care costs and their impact on hospital and doctors' bills, but our piece from mint.com presents a precautionary measure.  Be sure to read your medical bills carefully and know what you and/or your insurance company are paying for.  We are sometimes loath to deal with healthcare costs in the same way as we would auto repairs, but it is a good idea to ask questions.

 

Airline travel has become the brunt of jokes and a real source of dread for many people in these days of increased airport security.  However, some of the difficulties can be caused by the airlines themselves. Do you know, for example, what your rights are should you get bumped from a flight?  Read on.

 


What new innovation could change umbrella design forever?  Is there treasure hidden in garage sales and thrift shops?  Our "What's happening now" section answers these questions and more.

 

Sincere holiday greetings to all,

 

Joe 

 chornyak@chornyak.com  

Market Update
Authored by Brad McMillan, vice president, chief investment officer, at Commonwealth Financial Network.

Volatility in financial markets

November was a month of politics, not only in the U.S., but throughout the world, and market action reflected this. In the U.S., just as the government ended up looking pretty much the same at the end of the month as it had at the beginning, equity markets ended November not far from where they began. The S&P 500 Index returned 0.58 percent.

This small change masked quite a bit of volatility, including a significant post-election sell-off and a sharp rebound later. On November 7, the morning after the U.S. presidential election, markets tumbled more than 2 percent. Investors shifted their attention from who would win the election to the fact that the government had not changed much and that it now had to deal with an upcoming fiscal cliff.

In addition to the political reaction, technical factors came into play. The post-election tumble took the S&P 500 below its 200-day moving average, and momentum carried stocks downward, for a total loss of more than 5 percent. Thereafter, we saw a gradual rebound in investor confidence, probably attributable to recovering hopes that the country would not go off the fiscal cliff, as well as to reasonably robust U.S. economic data. At month-end, U.S. indices had moved back above their 200-day moving averages and seemed to have once again stabilized.

International equities broadly outperformed U.S. stocks in November, with returns of 2.42 percent for the MSCI EAFE and 1.18 percent for the MSCI Emerging Markets indices, respectively, but showed similar volatility. On the U.S. Election Day, for example, the European Commission released a report that anticipated a 0.3-percent contraction in European Union gross domestic product (GDP) for 2012 and GDP growth of only 0.4 percent over the entire 2013. Although this shouldn't have come as much of a surprise, international markets reacted badly, declining in unison with U.S. markets.

Since then, both developed and emerging equities have recovered, as a result of an improving political situation in Europe. Particular outperformance came from the troubled European nations-Greece, Portugal, and Italy-as investors reacted to Germany's more conciliatory approach to Greece's debt situation and the conclusion of a third Greek debt deal.

Despite the recovery in the equity markets, demand for U.S. Treasuries remained high. The 10-year Treasury yields fell from 1.69 percent to 1.6 percent, the lower end of a trading range that was established back in August. High-yield spreads tightened slightly as well. The Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index returned 0.16 percent, while the Barclays Capital U.S. Corporate High Yield Index returned 0.8 percent. But by far the most notable development in the fixed income realm was a sharp drop in municipal bond yields, from 2.5 percent to 2.25 percent by month-end (see chart). Driven by a general expectation of higher tax rates, the decline left municipal valuations at the high end of the post-financial crisis range.

Political volatility continues to drive market volatility

At the end of November, expectations in the U.S. were generally positive but remained subject to change daily, as the rhetoric out of Washington shifted from optimistic to defeatist regarding the so-called fiscal cliff. It seemed at this point that Republicans were more open to the prospect of raising revenue, but it remained unclear whether a compromise over raising taxes on the one hand and cutting spending on social programs on the other could be reached. Given the nature of the negotiations, where early compromise could be seen as weakness, the story can be expected to go to the end of the year.

Similarly, Europe has had no early resolution in sight to its fiscal problems, just a series of half-measures. Although a temporary solution was put in place for Greece, other countries-notably Italy and France-still have significant, unresolved problems. This continuing uncertainty could create ongoing market volatility.

Beyond the developed world, other areas of concern include the Middle East, where violence has escalated between Israel and Hamas and Egyptian President Morsi has granted himself broad powers. So far, this has not translated into a significant change in oil prices, but investors are watching the region closely. The China Seas continue to worry analysts as well, with China and Japan continuing to face off over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. Again, geopolitical uncertainty could add to market volatility going forward.

U.S. economy doing well, despite uncertainty
Probably the best news out there is the performance of the U.S. economy. Growth has just been revised up to 2.7 percent for the third quarter of 2012, which has largely been attributed to the housing recovery and strong consumer spending.

Housing continues to perform strongly, with house prices up for eight months in a row, per the Case-Shiller indices, by an average of 3 percent over the past year. Even the worst-hit cities, such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Detroit, have shown price gains, and home sales nationwide were up 17 percent year-over-year in October. Inventories of homes available for sale have declined below historical average levels in many markets, suggesting that price increases may continue. Higher home values have a number of positive effects, including increased consumer confidence, the wealth effect, improved labor mobility, and others, all of which contribute to stronger economic growth.

Consumer spending has also remained reasonably strong, buoyed by consumer confidence, which increased to a near five-year high in November. Despite a dip in October, possibly caused by Hurricane Sandy, it appears as if this strength will continue. In addition, sales over the Black Friday weekend were up materially compared with last year. One area of consumer spending that has particularly improved is auto sales, where pent-up demand drove sales in October to another four-year high. Both housing and auto sales are foundational components of any recovery, and their combined strength provide support for continued growth.

If strong housing and consumer spending numbers are expected to continue, what's the problem? The answer, of course, is the fiscal cliff, which is deterring business hiring and investment. There is a gap in perception between consumers, who are spending as if the cliff did not exist, and businesses, which have essentially stopped hiring and investing unless absolutely necessary. Even with these worries, however, according to the Federal Reserve, employment improved in more than half of the Fed's 12 regions in the third quarter, and growth improved in 9. Should the cliff be resolved successfully, a pickup in business investment and hiring could spur additional growth.

Looking good, but politics remain a risk

Overall, the U.S. economy looks to be performing strongly, but risks remain. The third quarter of 2012 was probably stronger than the fourth quarter will be, and 2013 remains subject to spending cuts and tax increases that could materially reduce growth levels. Even if an agreement is reached to avert the cliff, changes such as the expiration of extended unemployment benefits and the 2-percent payroll tax waiver will negatively affect the economy.

Nonetheless, the economic fundamentals look good, and the expectation now is for continued recovery, despite outstanding risks, such as governmental inaction in the U.S. and Europe or military action in Asia and the Middle East. We will be watching Washington, DC closely as the year comes to a close, but we remain cautiously optimistic that the U.S. will remain on its current positive trajectory.

Click here to get today's market activity.   

 

 

Join Our Mailing List