Fiscal cliff or bridge to the future?
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Joe Chornyak discusses the "fiscal cliff" sometimes touted in the media, and its relationship to your investment portfolio. He reminds us that it's important to plan, but we must realize that we're long-term investors. And as long-term investors, we're always going to face uncertainty. The video includes information on what we need to know about long-term, vs. short-term, vs. intermediate-term investing. Click here or on the image above to view the video.
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Tips for saving money on your cell phone
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Whether you're looking for the hottest new toy or just want to save money on your monthly bill, there are plenty of ways to trim the overall cost of your cell phone. Follow these simple tips to save money and stay connected:
Evaluate your needs
- Look closely at your monthly usage to make sure you're using what you're paying for and aren't incurring overage charges.
- Review rollover packages to see if you can save money on your voice plan.
- Do you really need an Internet plan or a data plan? If you don't travel much or spend your days at a computer, you may not.
- Is a smartphone right for you? Don't buy a phone just because it's popular. There are plenty of cool, inexpensive phones that can meet your needs.
Avoid costly calls
- Making toll-free 800 calls on cell phones is not free. You'll be charged for the minutes used.
- Calling 411 from your cell phone can be costly.
- Use free online directory services like www.411.com or www.whitepages.com to find the number you need.
Avoid extras
- Downloads like ringtones, software, video streaming, and games use up a lot of data, so think twice before purchasing them.
- Add-ons like phone cases, car chargers, and other accessories can tack on unnecessary costs.
- Stay up to date on offers
- Shop around for the best deal on the phone you're interested in.
- Contract prices can vary depending on length of commitment; signing a longer contract could save you money over time.
- Buying a new phone when it's first released is generally more expensive; simply wait a few months for the price to come down.
- Voice and data plan prices change frequently, so if you've had your plan for a while, check out the cost before you renew.
Consider pay-as-you-go plans
- If you are a light user or only need a phone for a certain period of time, purchase an inexpensive phone and pay separately for minutes and texting.
- Pay-as-you-go plans offer built-in budget control-you can't use more than you've paid for.
- The customer is always right
- Don't be afraid to ask for a better deal; the phone carriers would rather charge you less than lose you to the competition!
- We can get so caught up in the excitement surrounding the latest gadget that we forget to look at what we really need our phone to do. Even if you just make a few seemingly small changes to your monthly cell phone usage, you can save yourself a good deal over time.
� 2012 Commonwealth Financial Network
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Mobile payments: A new frontier for criminals
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Businessweek publishes this warning: With mobile transactions set to hit $1.3 trillion worldwide by 2015, banks and payment services are scrambling to plug security gaps.
Only 12 percent of Americans have tried mobile payments, according to a March report from the Federal Reserve. To rev up adoption of their own platforms, companies such as PayPal, Google, and Square are under "pressure to remove the controls," thereby improving ease of use, Litan says. For criminals, that means easier access. Risks to be avoidedNearly 70 percent of mobile phones aren't password-protected, according to Sophos, a mobile security vendor. Parents allow children to play with their phones without considering that they may download some bit of malware, says Shirley Inscoe, a senior analyst at Aite Group: "They don't realize the risk they may entail given the data stored on their mobile device." Criminals can access a mobile wallet by stealing the handset or by tricking its owner into downloading a piece of malicious code. Malware attacks on U.S. smartphones have risen 18 percent since 2011 and now add up to 15.3 percent of the world total, says mobile security vendor NQ Mobile. Sometimes the weak link is not the phone but accessories designed for it. Using an earlier generation of attachments sold by Square, which allow iPhones to accept credit- and debit-card payments, security experts were able to show how criminals could set up merchant accounts and accept payments using stolen credit-card numbers. Building defensesBanks and mobile-payment providers are scrambling to build-or buy-better defenses. "There's lots of investment into solving this problem," says Fiserv's Urban. Guardian Analytics, a Silicon Valley startup, has developed software for banks that analyzes a consumer's past transaction behavior-whether she made small or large purchases and how often-to determine if her phone has been hijacked. There are also security tools that can triangulate a mobile user's location and verify that she is using her usual wireless device. PayPal has identified more than 1,000 variables that can help the company determine the authenticity of a transaction, says Michael Barrett, its chief information security officer. "We tend to use a lot of contextual security," he says. "And we are always evolving those controls." Nitesh Saxena, an assistant professor of computer science at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, proposes having a user's phone and a store's scanner each record the audio of background noises during a mobile-payment transaction. The two recordings would then be matched up on some distant server. The goal is to prevent so-called relay attacks, in which a criminal scans a credit card with a phone and then passes the card number wirelessly to an accomplice overseas, who uses it to make purchases with his mobile device. After fraud has taken placeGetting the technology right is simpler than figuring out how to divide responsibility for fraud detection and apportion losses when fraud has taken place. A typical transaction involves a wireless carrier, a payment service, and a bank. "Depending on how you paid for the thing, it might not be clear who's holding the responsibility," says Suzanne Martindale, staff attorney at Consumers Union, which publishes Consumer Reports. "In many cases, unfortunately, it's the consumer left holding the bag, because they get frustrated with the runaround." What the future holdsOnce the wrinkles are ironed out, though, mobile payments could become more secure than checks or card-based payments. "If your phone is lost or stolen, with a single call, you can remotely disable the wallet," says Jaymee Johnson, head of marketing at Isis, a mobile-payment venture of AT&T , Verizon Wireless, and T-Mobile USA that is expected to launch service this fall. For anyone who has had to spend an afternoon canceling credit cards after being pickpocketed, that sounds appealing. Read the whole article here. |
Drive the car that fits your lifestyle
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Kiplinger, in a useful article entitled "Eight tips to be a smarter consumer," presents an interesting lifestyle matchup between you, your family, and the ideal car to choose. Are you ready for a Kia or Hyundai?FAMILIESKia Sorento, Sticker price: $25,750 (LX V6)Kia's midsize SUV switched from truck to crossover construction last year and now features more agile, carlike handling. A four-cylinder engine graces the lineup and gets 29 miles per gallon on the highway, versus 26 mpg for the V6. Second-row legroom is a roomy 38 inches, and cargo space behind the second row is 37 cubic feet -- enough to fit the family and all your gear. The third row of seats (optional on four-cylinder models and standard on V6 models) is perfect for little ones, but not unbearable for adults. The Sorento rates a Top Safety Pick by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Runners-up: Hyundai Sonata $21,455 (2.4L GLS)It's elegant as well as utilitarian, with generous legroom and cargo space, and a thrifty four-cylinder engine. Honda Odyssey $29,035 (LX)The bold exterior, improved driving dynamics and functional interior set it apart from its minivan peers. URBAN COMMUTERSNissan Leaf, Sticker price: $36,050 (SV)The first mass-market electric vehicle to hit the streets, the Leaf boasts serious amenities in addition to zero tailpipe emissions and a "fueling" cost of less than $700 a year. A heated steering wheel and heated seats and mirrors are standard features for 2012, as is a 7-inch information display with navigation (to help you find the nearest charging station), Bluetooth, and a USB connection for music. A full charge takes about eight hours on a 220-volt dock and will carry you 73 miles, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. The price tag is steep, but a $7,500 federal tax credit helps. Runners-up:Ford Focus $19,095 (SE hatchback)Redesigned for 2012, it has plenty of legroom, high resale value and gets 36 miles per gallon on the highway. Hyundai Elantra, $15,955 (GLS)A nice price and 40 mpg on the highway make it easy on your budget. It has an ample 15 cubic feet of cargo room. OUTDOORSYSubaru Outback, Sticker price: $25,070 (2.5i automatic)Kiplinger's named the Outback Best in Class Wagon for the third year in a row, based on its fuel economy, stellar resale values and bragging rights as an IIHS Top Safety Pick. Subaru's Symmetrical All-Wheel Drive comes in three different versions (all standard) on Outback models, depending on the transmission and engine. On the 2.5i automatic, power is distributed to the wheels depending on acceleration, deceleration, and available traction. For trail-rated accessories such as splash guards and all-weather floor mats, check out the Popular Package ($772). Runners-up: Ford Explorer, $34,920 (XLT AWD) Explorer is now a crossover, with carlike handling and better fuel economy, but it's still rugged enough for adventure. Jeep Grand Cherokee, $29,820 (Laredo 4WD)This Jeep has off-road cred, lots of interior space and highway fuel economy of 23 mpg. MIDLIFE CRISISPorsche Boxster, Sticker price: $62,750 (Spyder)Many celebrities have driven Porsches over the years, but few were cooler than 1950s film star James Dean -- whose love of Porsches became legendary after his death at the age of 24 while driving a 550 Spyder. Questions of your demise aside, if you desire two seats and the feel of the wind tousling your hair, then the Porsche Boxster is a good choice. It corners and brakes like a dream, and the engine is placed mid car, so there's storage fore and aft. The Spyder has a larger engine and more horsepower. If money is tight and you can sacrifice some speed, consider the base Boxster, for $15,000 less. Runners-up:Chevrolet Corvette, $50,500 (base)The 6.2-liter V8 packs 430 horsepower and propels the 'Vette (which turns 60 next year) from 0 to 60 in 4.2 seconds. Mazda Miata, $26,245 (Sport)Inspired by roadsters such as the MGB, the Miata is stripped to the essentials so you feel connected to the road. OLDER DRIVERSChrysler 300C, Sticker price: $41,145Chrysler's restyled 300C is evocative of the 1957 model, with a wide front grille and fins. But there's more to the C than nostalgia. The doors open wide for easy entry, and the dashboard is clean, with big, easy-to-use controls. Heated seats (front and rear) and a rearview camera are standard, and the pedals and steering wheel adjust at the touch of a button. Add the Safetytec package ($2,420) for adaptive cruise control, which uses radar to maintain a safe distance from the car in front of you on the highway. The package includes forward-collision and blind-spot warning and cross-path detection. Runners-up: Mazda5, $20,140 (Sport)This mini minivan offers easy access, seating for six and easy-stow seats for when you need more space. Toyota Avalon, $33,955 (base)Check out the eight-way power driver's seat, easy-to-use dash controls, and standard backup monitor. TEENS2009 Honda Civic, Sticker price: $16,708 (EX-L sedan)If you'd rather spring for a new car for your teen, consider the Kia Soul or Ford Focus. But if you're looking to spend less, consider a three-year-old Civic. Its 1.8-liter, four-cylinder engine produces 140 horsepower and gets 36 mpg on the highway. The EX-L model has safety features not available on lower trims -- standard stability and traction control plus brake assist (to apply maximum braking force in an emergency). Other standard perks include heated leather seats, USB connectivity and a 60/40 split folding rear seat to expand the car's 12 cubic feet of cargo space. Runners-up:2008 Chevy Malibu, $11,831 (LT)The Malibu drives well, plus it comes with a slew of standard safety features and a wallet-friendly price. 2009 Scion xB, $12,323 (base)The xB has a capacious 22 cubic feet of cargo space and, as a Toyota product, a history of reliability. Read the whole article here. |
What's happening now
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What are the "top ten cult TV shows that Netflix should revive?" according to The Street (Wall Street Journal)?" Can you guess where "All my Children" falls in the list? Robert F. Kennedy's newly released papers remind us that the Cuban missile crisis was the most dangerous moment in recorded history.
The "pay-as-you-drive" method of car insurance calls for a monitor in your car to collect data on your actual behavior behind the wheel so you can earn a discount for safer driving. Will this service change the game?
There are currently 11.8 million Millennials age 18-30 living in U.S. households with annual incomes exceeding $100,000. Affluent Millennials may be hard to pick out of a crowd, but they are redefining the luxury industry.
Have you purchased an e-book during the past two years? You may be getting some money back.
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This communication is strictly intended for individuals residing in the States of: AL, AR, AZ, CA, CO, CT, FL, GA, IA, IL, IN, KY, LA, MA, ME, MI, MT, NC, NY, OH, PA, SC, TX, VA WI, WV. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident outside these States due to various state requirements and registration requirements regarding investment products and services. Securities and Advisory Services Offered Through Commonwealth Financial Network, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. Fixed-insurance products and services offered by Chornyak & Associates, LTD are separate and unrelated to Commonwealth. This informational e-mail is an advertisement. To opt out of receiving future messages, follow the "Unsubscribe" instructions below. Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor's. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000� Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index. The Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury's daily yield curve. The Barclays Capital Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Barclays Capital Municipal Bond Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million. The Barclays Capital U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) Index measures the performance of intermediate (1- to 10-year) U.S. TIPS. |
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November 2012
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This month's video contains important information you should know when faced with potential scare tactics in the media predicting an upcoming "fiscal cliff." "Sleep-at-night" money vs. "reserve to fall back on" - what you need to consider.
I think you'll agree that, as a nation, we've become dependent on our cell phones, not only as a means of communication, but also for entertainment, reference, quick information, and more. Commonwealth Financial Network's article "Tips for saving money on your cell phone" emphasizes the need for planning before you choose a mobile phone.
In the same vein, the pervasiveness of mobile communications, Businessweek points out the risks and benefits of using your cell phone to make payments. The article concludes that some day mobile payments could become more secure than checks or card-based payments.
Have some fun and see if you agree with Kiplinger's matchup of the ideal car for your lifestyle. Which category do you fall into - family, outdoorsy, urban, mid-life crisis, or "older?"
There's also a recommendation for teenage drivers.
Our "What's Happening Now" section contains a wide diversity of news tidbits ranging from revival of cult TV shows to the Millennial (Generation Y) consumer market who are among the "1%." Don't miss this.
We are here to listen and answer should you have any investment-oriented questions or comments on this month's newsletter. Contact us at 614-888-2121 (toll-free 877-389-2121), or send an e-mail to:
Sincerely,
Joe
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Market Update
| Financial markets react to uncertainty
October lived up to its reputation as a tough month for stocks. Political uncertainty, business indecision in the face of the fiscal cliff, and disappointing results combined to hit the equity markets. The S&P 500 Index was down 1.85 percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.39 percent. The Nasdaq got hit even harder, losing 4.46 percent.
In the U.S., corporate earnings appeared to have flattened out. Of the 245 S&P 500 companies that have reported as of this writing, 71 percent have beaten estimates. Nonetheless, the overall blended earnings growth rate has actually declined 1.2 percent-the first such decline in 11 quarters. Additionally, only 36 percent of companies have reported sales that have beaten analyst estimates. Revenue may have been negatively impacted by weaker economic activity overseas. The U.S. health care, consumer staples, and financials sectors surprised to the upside, while utilities earned less than analysts had expected.
Slowdowns and declines in both top and bottom lines have been cited as the causes of reduced investor appetite for U.S. equities over the past month, exacerbated by ongoing political and economic uncertainty. Even as earnings have moderated, however, stock valuations remain at historically high levels, suggesting that caution is warranted-particularly because earnings estimates for the fourth quarter of 2012 have also come down.
Technical factors also suggest that caution is warranted. The S&P 500 dropped well below its 50-day moving average toward month-end, and the Nasdaq just broke its 200-day moving average. The Nasdaq is more of a concern than the S&P 500, but both suggest that continued market weakness is quite possible.
International markets did better than U.S. markets, with the MSCI EAFE Index actually up 0.83 percent for the month. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, however, was down 0.73 percent-though less than the U.S. markets. The relatively good results for the EAFE appear to be due to economic reports that were not as bad as had been expected, as well as to progress in resolving the European debt crisis. Emerging markets benefited from this progress but also suffered from the continuing uncertainty in the U.S., resulting in a middling result. Technically, the EAFE is just at its 50-day moving average, while the Emerging Markets index is below its 50-day and close to its 200-day moving averages. Again, these results suggest that continued weakness is possible.
With the announcement of QE3, Treasury yields rose from 1.63 percent to 1.69 percent by month-end. This was consistent with what we've seen following other quantitative easing announcements, where Treasuries rallied beforehand and market participants sold into the Federal Reserve's buying afterwards. Likewise, 30-year fixed mortgage rates, which bottomed at the end of September, began to rise in October. For new homebuyers or homeowners looking to refinance, rates remain near their most attractive levels in recent memory.
Even as Treasuries sold off, high-yield bonds continued to rally, with the effective yield of the Bank of America Merrill Lynch High Yield Corporate Master II Index falling below 6.5 percent. The spread of the index over Treasuries also fell, to around 4.5 percent. Though above levels seen in the period from 2004 to 2007, spreads are much less attractive now than they were at the beginning of 2012, when they averaged a bit more than 6 percent.
Economy grows at slightly faster pace
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2 percent annualized in the third quarter, according to initial estimates. Strong consumer spending in September may even result in an upward revision to GDP growth in the second estimate. Residential investment, caused by a rebound in the housing market, helped the U.S. economy expand, as did an increase in federal government spending on defense. This was the first time in eight quarters that government spending was a positive contributor to growth.
Weak manufacturing output has been a drag on global growth. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI has been in negative territory since June, although it was less negative in September than it had been in August. Manufacturing activity in the U.S. appears to be slightly better than the world average, having rebounded into positive territory in October, but it is no longer buoying growth as it did in 2010, 2011, and the first half of this year.
Year-to-date, growth has been about consumer spending, as retail sales have remained strong, with an especially strong print in September. Consumers have dipped into their savings to maintain the growth rate, but savings levels are still reasonably healthy. Businesses, on the other hand, have reduced spending and investment. The difference between the two appears to be the greater focus on the pending fiscal cliff (i.e., the package of tax increases and spending cuts scheduled to take effect, absent Congressional action, at year-end) by businesses.
Politics and the election
With President Obama and Governor Romney both presenting very different views on taxes and regulation and with the race very close, the uncertainty around the election has led many businesses to postpone decisions on investment and hiring. Business uncertainty and unemployment are strongly related, and it is hoped that the election results will reduce some of that uncertainty and spark more hiring.
Before it does, however, the fiscal cliff must be resolved. Should the fiscal cliff take effect, taxes will increase significantly, and the country will likely move into recession, potentially a severe one. As noted previously, businesses are neither hiring nor investing while that prospect looms, and it is possible that consumers will also become more cautious, as they become more aware of the risks.
Reasons for caution and optimism
Markets remain at high levels, suggesting that they expect the uncertainty to be resolved favorably. Although there are risks, there is a strong incentive for Congress to at least postpone the debate over the fiscal cliff until the new government can make its decisions.
Uncertainties in Europe seemed to recede in October. As in the U.S., they remain, but the issues have been identified, and the governments have strong incentives to resolve them. Many of the most serious problems now have institutional frameworks for resolution-something that had been missing-and the European Union appears well positioned to come to grips with its difficulties.
Overall, while risks remain, and the downside could be financial, the upside potential is also very much present. Cautious optimism remains the appropriate stance.
Authored by Brad McMillan, vice president, chief investment officer, at Commonwealth Financial Network.
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