Greetings!
This weekend, leaders from across the United States converged on Colorado and not because of the Presidential election, but to talk at the Leadership Conference of the Financial Planning Association. Much like the rest of our country, this group is divided on many topics. It was my privilege to address 2 different break-out groups, in hopes that we may become more united.
"One Profession, One Designation" is a rallying cry for Financial Planners across the country, now. The professionals who carry the designation "CFP" elevate our profession and help a lot of people along the way. At AIFS, we add another layer of ethics onto this, called our "12 Guiding Principles." Read about them here.
Financial Astrologists will look at past performance and say that under a particular political party, stock markets perform better or worse. However, as Lauren Foster's compendium of research, following, shows, there is as much evidence for one party as there is against it. So, you likely come out of that research believing what you did before you began it.
Perhaps more interestingly, there may be statistical evidence that supports the theory that in the 3rd and 4th years of a Presidential cycle the market performs better than in the first 2 years. The quiet rally in 2012 seems to fit into that notion, although 2011, the 3rd year of Obama's term, was nothing exciting.
Most importantly, stock markets predict election outcomes. When doing well, incumbent Presidents do well. When they flounder, the opposition does better. (8)
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| Lunch and Learn |
You might have heard the statistic that the average American gains between 7 and 10 lbs from Thanksgiving to New Years. This year, take advantage of expert tips and tricks for staying fit and healthy through the holidays.
Join us for our next Lunch and Learn featuring Priscilla Freed, a fitness expert, life coach, speaker, and author.
Priscilla, founder of Holistic Health Corp, a company whose mission is to change people's mindsets in order to transform their bodies. She offers classes in nutrition, fitness, and life coaching programs dedicated to changing people's lives.
Get Fit not Fat for the Holidays!
Date: Thursday November 8th, 11:30am - 12:30pm
Location: Our office, 9800 Mt. Pyramid Court, Suite 450
Englewood, CO 80112
Lunch will be provided.
or call 303-690-5070. Seating is limited.
Friends and colleagues are welcome to attend!
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| Weekly Economic Update | |
HIRING PICKS UP, JOBLESS RATE TICKS UP
Employers added 171,000 jobs in October, according to the Labor Department. Revised August and September estimates showed non-farm payrolls growing by an average of 173,000 jobs in each of the past three months. The unemployment rate rose to 7.9%, as economists polled by Bloomberg had forecast, a consequence of more people seeking work. (1,2)
MORE SPENDING, MORE CONFIDENCE
Personal spending accelerated by 0.8% in October, and Commerce Department data also showed incomes up 0.4% for the month (the biggest gain since March) and the savings rate down to 3.3% (the lowest level since last November). In another positive sign, the Conference Board's October consumer confidence poll came in at 72.2, the highest mark since February 2008. (2,3)
HOME PRICES RISE 2.0% IN A YEAR
That was the annual gain shown in the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (the September edition). Compare that to the August report, which noted that prices across 20 cities had increased 1.2% in 12 months. The index rose 0.5% for October. (4)
MANUFACTURING SECTOR EXPANDS SLIGHTLY
The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing PMI advanced 0.2% for October to 51.7. Encouragingly, the new orders index rose 1.9% to 54.2. The Commerce Department also noted a 4.8% leap in factory orders for September. (5,6)
A MIXED WEEK ON WALL STREET
The S&P 500 managed a 0.16% weekly gain to settle at 1,414.20 Friday, but the Dow (-0.11% to 13,093.16) and NASDAQ (-0.19% to 2,982.13) posted five-day losses. The Russell 2000 advanced 0.14% on the week to 814.37; the CBOE VIX fell 1.68% for the week, closing Friday at 17.51. (6,7) |
| Market Summary |
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% Change |
Y-T-D |
1Yr Chg |
5-Year Avg | |
DJIA |
+7.17 |
+10.62 |
-0.74 | |
NASDAQ |
+14.47 |
+12.96 |
+1.22 | |
S&P 500 |
+12.45 |
+14.24 |
-1.26 |
(Source: msn.money.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov -11/02/12). Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged, and investors cannot invest in them directly. |
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Create a beautiful week!
Karl Frank, MBA, MSF
Certified Financial Planner (R)
A & I Financial Services LLC
303.690.5070
Citations:
1 - www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-jobs-unemployment-
20121102,0,642852.story 6 [11/2/12]
2 - www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-29/consumer-spending-in-
u-s-increases-0-8-as-incomes-climb-0-4-.html [10/29/12]
3 - articles.marketwatch.com/2012-11-01/economy/34847281_1_lynn-franco-director-of-economic-indicators-confidence-readings [10/25/12]
4 - www.forexpros.com/news/economic-indicators/s-p-case-
shiller-home-price-index-up-2-in-august-240069 [10/30/12]
5 - www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm [11/1/12]
6 - www.cnbc.com/id/49658715 [11/2/12]
7 - montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=retirement-investment-funds&category=3 [11/2/12]
8 - http://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2012/08/31/weekend-
reading-does-the-us-presidential-election-affect-the-stock-market/
Securities offered through Geneos Wealth Management, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through A & I Financial Services LLC, registered investment advisor.
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| Words for Thought |
"To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom."
Bertrand Russell |
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Riddle of the Week
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Einstein's Riddle: A man meets a bear in a wasteland. Both are startled. The man runs north and the bear runs west. Suddenly, the man aimed his gun south and shot the bear. What color was the bear?
Last week's riddle:
A man tells you there are 12 seconds in a year. This sounds absurd, but in what sense is he correct?
Last week's answer:
Each month of the year contains a "second" - January 2nd, February 2nd, and so forth. |
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