Pat Webb - Phase 2 Advisors
 
Thankful For Progress
Weekly Update - November 19, 2012
In This Issue
Performance
Headlines
Recipe
Golf Tip
Health Tip
Green Fact
The Markets:

As you gather with your family and friends this week, we urge you not to let anxiety over the fiscal cliff or sovereign debt problems in Europe distract you from what matters most. Turn off CNBC and close the Wall Street Journal for a few days. Use the opportunity to recharge your batteries. There'll be plenty of time to watch the news later. To help you with this, we thought it would be nice to share a few positive things worth being thankful for.
 
Progress towards a fiscal compromise: The latest word is that the White House and Congress have committed to short negotiations, with the goal of achieving a fiscal cliff resolution before the New Year. This is welcome news and we hope we'll begin to see business leaders opening their wallets and making big investments in hiring and growth soon.[1] Markets slid during the early part of last week, but rallied Friday on this news.[2]
 
Resilient markets: Despite what we've been through in the past few years, U.S. markets are still performing well - the Dow is still up 3% for the year and 3.5% since last year, when economists worried that we might be facing a double-dip recession. With consumer sentiment running high and investors feeling renewed confidence in Congress, we may still see additional upside this year.[3]
 
A recovering economy : Our economy has suffered some serious pain in the last few years, but is still chugging along. Currently, we have a housing market that is bouncing back vigorously, a decreasing unemployment rate, and recovering industrial output. Our economy still has a long way to go before it can be considered fully recovered, but trends are pointing to continued improvement next year if we can get past the fiscal cliff.[4]

Looking ahead, despite the holiday-shortened trading week, markets could still see some action. Housing data will be released Monday, and Ben Bernanke is scheduled to speak Tuesday (analysts expect his remarks to address the economic recovery and tight consumer credit markets). The day after Thanksgiving, Black Friday will mark the start of the holiday shopping season and traders may have time to react to any early revenue announcements.[5] European analysts expect the next round of Eurozone aid to Greece to be announced this week, so we may see some movement in currency and European markets too.[6]
 
ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
Monday: Existing Home Sales, Housing Market Index
Tuesday: Housing Starts, Ben Bernanke Speaks at 12:15 PM ET
Wednesday: Jobless Claims, Consumer Sentiment, EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday: U.S. Markets Closed for Thanksgiving Holiday
Friday: U.S. Markets Close Early



Performance


 

Notes: All index returns exclude reinvested dividends, and the 5-year and 10-year returns are annualized.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, MSCI Barra. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not available.


Headlines

Superstorm Sandy depresses industrial output. U.S. industrial manufacturing output fell in October as Sandy disrupted production and transportation across the Northeast. The storm is estimated to have reduced output by 1%; however, the underlying tone of production remains consistent with estimates.[7]  
 
Next round of Greek aid expected this week. According to remarks by Italian officials, Eurozone leaders will reach a compromise with Greece within days. Greece has already been granted an additional two years to reach austerity goals and European leaders will meet to discuss funding requirements for the next tranche of aid money.[8]
  
Business inventories rise in September due to high stocks of automobiles. Excluding the automobile stocks, inventories were flat for a second month, meaning that economists may have to lower third-quarter GDP estimates. Business inventories form a key part of GDP estimates.[9]
 
China's biggest future threat is inflation. According to a Chinese central bank governor, the biggest risk to China's transition from a planned economy to a market-based one is inflation. Without careful management by central bankers and deep financial reforms, overspending by local and regional governments could overheat the economy.[10]
 

Quote of the Week

"Once you choose hope, anything's possible."

- Christopher Reeve


Recipe of the Week

Cider-Roasted Vegetables


 

Photo Credits: Place your own text here.A healthy and delicious side dish to
share with family and friends. From RealSimple.com

 

Ingredients:

1 1/2 pounds beets (1 bunch), peeled and cut into wedges
1 1/2 pounds parsnips, peeled and cut into 2-inch chunks
1 1/2 pounds baby carrots, peeled (or 1 1/2 pounds carrots cut into 2-inch chunks)
4 tablespoons brown sugar
4 tablespoons olive oil
2 tablespoons apple cider vinegar
1 pound white button or crimini mushrooms, cleaned and stemmed 

 
Directions:
1. Heat oven to 450 F. Place the vegetables in two small roasting pans.
2. In a medium bowl, whisk together the brown sugar, oil, and vinegar. Pour over the vegetables and toss to coat well.
3. Cook until tender, about 1 hour, stirring halfway. Add the mushrooms during the last 10 minutes, toss to coat well, and finish roasting. Season to taste with salt and freshly ground pepper.


Make ahead tip: The roasted vegetables can be kept at room temperature up to 2 hours in advance or refrigerated up to 1 day in advance. Reheat from room temperature at 350 F to 400 F.

 

 

 

Golf Tip

Hit High, Not Low.

It is a fairly common misconception that high shots are less desirable than low screamers. Note however that great golfers hit high shots not low. On the pro tour in the sixties, there was a saying: "High, Higher, and Highest", and there is some truth to that saying. Great shots tend to launch high and long. Low shots are preferred only in windy or bump and run conditions. Remember that ground and grass create friction and resistance that slow a ball down faster than air. There's nothing wrong with hitting monster drives. Don't be ashamed for trying!

Healthy Lifestyle

Boost Memory with a Mid-Day Nap

Surveys show that more than half of people aged 65 and older nap at least twice a week. Turns out, they might have the right idea. Researchers have found that taking a daily nap improves mental recall and problem-solving skills. 

 

Green Living

Frugal Green Cleaning


Ask any group of friends about living a greener lifestyle and you'll often hear complaints that it's too expensive. A quick check of the cleaning aisle shows that specialty cleaners often cost 50% more than regular household brands and can really put a dent in your wallet. But, don't despair. Good old-fashioned products like baking soda, vinegar, and lemon juice can be used to clean many of the surfaces in your house and cost pennies per application. 
 
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Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.

Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets

The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.

The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.

The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

The Housing Market Index (HMI) is a weighted average of separate diffusion indices based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. Each resulting index is then seasonally adjusted and weighted to produce the HMI.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator of housing activity,  measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops.  The PHSI looks at the monthly relationship between existing-home sale contracts and transaction closings over the last four years. The results are weighted to produce the index.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (VIX) is a weighted measure of the implied S&P 500 volatility. VIX is quoted in percentage points and translates, roughly, to the expected movement in the S&P 500 index over the upcoming 30-day period, which is then annualized.

The BLS Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) produces monthly data on changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. Survey responses are seasonally adjusted and weighted to produce a composite index.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite economic index formed by averages of several individual leading economic indicators, which are weighted to produce the complete index.

Google Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

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Past performance does not guarantee future results.

You cannot invest directly in an index.

Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk,
market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

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Pat Webb
Pat Webb - Phase 2 Advisors
8100 Turman Ct
Fort Collins, CO 80525
970-776-3306
patwebb@phase2adv.com
http://www.phase2adv.com