Weekly Market Review

The upward momentum in European equity generated by Mario Draghi's bold asset-purchase plan continued unabated. However, US stocks stubbornly refused to join in the end-of-week party as some unsettling corporate news helped cool the mood, even as signs began to emerge that oil prices might finally have found a floor. On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 0.6% whilst the FTSE Eurofirst 300 rose 1.8% to yet another seven-year high.

 

US President Barack Obama declared an end to the financial crisis and pledged economic policies to benefit all Americans, in his annual State of the Union address to Congress. "The shadow of crisis has passed, and the State of the Union is strong" he said, stressing on the recent economic growth to outline his strategy for "middle-class economics".

 

The pace of homebuilding in America began the year on a high note. Home construction rose 4.4% in December to an 1.089m annualized pace, official figures showed. Separately, declining borrowing costs continued to boost demand for mortgages, as NAHB's housing marker index, a gauge of builder confidence, held steady at 57.

 

The Bank of Canada joined the list of "unpredictable" central banks with a shock quarter point rate cut. Forecasting a major economic slowdown in the face of lower oil prices, the central bank reduced its overnight rate to 0.75% from 1%, its first rate change since 2010.

 

ECB President, Mario Draghi, delivered a classic compromise plan with a headline value of €1.14trn. Under this QE plan which was welcomed by investors, the ECB will buy €60bn bonds each month from banks until the end of September 2016, or even longer until there's a "sustained adjustment" in inflation, according to Draghi.

 

The eurozone's current account balance shrank for a second month running to €18.1bn in November, after hitting a record €30.8bn earlier last autumn and fuelling fears of a destabilizing "euroglut". The seasonally-adjusted figure fell from €19.5bn in October.

 

The number of people out of work in the UK fell by 58,000 to 1.91mn, its lowest level for more than six years, in the three months to November, official figures indicate. The unemployment rate now stands at 5.8% of the adult working population.

 

Ukrainian bonds slumped again after the IMF and Kiev indicated that they were planning to restructure the country's sovereign debt. The US$2.6bn bond due in 2017 tumbled to 42.9cents on the US Dollar, for a yield of 54.1%. A US$1.25bn security maturing in 2023 slid to 50.1cents, equal to an annualized yield of 20.16%.

 

China's economic growth slowed to its weakest in 24 years, expanding 7.4% last year from 7.7% in 2013. Growth in the world's second largest economy missed its official annual growth target of 7.5% for the first time in 15 years. The economy expanded by 7.3% in the October-to-December period from a year earlier.

 

Australians are still gloomy about the state of their finances at the beginning of the year as pessimists outnumbered the optimists for the eleventh straight month. Westpac's monthly survey found consumer confidence rose 2.4% on the month in January, but at 93.2 the index remains several points below the 100 threshold marking optimism.

 

Japan's manufacturing sector expanded for the third consecutive month in January, marking a decent start to the year as the economic revival program entered its third year. The Markit/JMMA purchasing managers' index rose to 52.1 in January, a nudge up from 52 in December, indicating modest expansion.

 

Oil rose after the death of Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah, the biggest producer in the OPEC. Futures rallied as much as 3.1% in New York and 2.6% in London. WTI for March delivery climbed to US$47.76 a barrel on the NYME.

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