The Invasive species regularly arrive in the United States, but what happens next is less predictable. Some species die out before they are ever noticed while others are capable of becoming established and even thriving in their new environment. Two highly destructive and economically important invasive termite species, the Formosan subterranean termite (Coptotermes formosanus) and the Asian subterranean termite (Coptotermes gestroi), were recently analyzed for their likelihood of expansion into new territory. Both species are native to Asia but have been able to exploit several disparate regions after accidental introductions. Currently, the Formosan termite is restricted to southern and coastal regions of the United States, especially Hawaii and the southeast, while the Asian subterranean termite is not yet established in the U.S.

Francesco Tonini of the University of Florida led an international team of scientists to model future distribution of these species based on current climatic conditions and anticipated climate changes by using current occurrence records. Predicted expansion and population densities for both species was closely linked to urban development, while a warming climate indicates an increased likelihood of expansion into new areas compared to current conditions. This research was published in a paper titled, "Predicting the Geographical Distribution of Two Invasive Termite Species from Occurrence Data" and published in a recent volume of Environmental Entomology.