My outlook for the coming quarter is one of greater concern.  Volatility looks to me to be on the rise.  On the upside we have the drop in oil prices, which is good for the U.S. consumer.  We also have an improving employment situation with a very positive reading for third quarter GDP at 5.0%.  On the downside, we have a new Congress in place who, along with their rival-party President, have started to stake out policy boundaries.  We also have Russia declining into a possible unstable economic and currency crisis.  In addition, we have the slow European recovery facing a fresh round of Greek political stresses that could threaten European stability.  To be clear, I don't see a coming train wreck, but as these conditions develop, for good or bad, markets can move quickly and abruptly in both directions.

Looking beyond the Greek situation, Europe continues to make progress with its monetary stimulus programs.  Although not of particular interest to the mainstream media, pieces are being put in place for monetary stimulus to expand in 2015.  I expect European markets to respond positively as this added stimulus becomes more certain.  Investments purchased at current prices may perform well over time.  Prudence suggests we must also consider that if the added stimulus does not materialize, investors may move rapidly out of European investments causing a further decline in prices.  My equity strategy is to remain fully invested with an underweight to U.S. and small caps.  I will continue to overweight both International and Emerging markets.  For fixed income, I will add to long bonds as a hedge and continue my overweight in alternative investments.