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The Tale of Detroit

When we think of Detroit we think of the auto industry and the dominant position it once held. That position was fueled by Detroit's industrial base that helped supply the War effort of the 1940's. In 1950, Detroit was the fifth largest city in the country. But all that momentum did not prevent the unthinkable...Detroit filed for bankruptcy in July 2013 and in December a judge ruled it to be eligible for Chapter 9 debt restructuring. In this edition of Financially Speaking I want to look at just how the "unthinkable" came to be a reality.

 

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Jim Thibault

Managing Partner

jthibault@

barronfinancialgroup.com

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February 2014
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Vanishing Revenues 

Detroit isn't the only city in the country facing difficult times. But it is the only major city, and the largest city in U.S. history, facing bankruptcy. This kind of financial deterioration takes place over time and can be intensified by outside forces. It is rarely a simple matter of pointing to a single cause. In 1950 Detroit had a population of nearly 2 million. Their problems started in the late 1950's, driven by the first of two key outside forces, suburbanization. People wanting more space moved to the suburbs driving the city population and property values down. The loss of property tax revenue led to the implementation of an income tax of 1% in 1962. It wasn't enough. A utility tax was added in 1971, but by then the second outside force was taking hold, deindustrialization. Foreign competition was eroding Detroit's auto leadership and employment base. The population dropped 20% during the 1970's, further depleting property values and tax revenue. A casino wagering tax was added in 1999, and existing tax rates were increased, resulting in Detroit having the highest income and property taxes in all of Michigan. But the revenue gap continued to widen. The population shrank another 25% between 2000 and 2010. Detroit's population is now just over 700,000.

 

City cost reduction efforts weren't enough to close the revenue gap. As of 2004, the number of city employees had been reduced by less than 30%. But the property value tax base had dropped from $45 billion in 1958 to about $16 billion in 2004...a decrease of almost 65%. Spending on retiree healthcare increased 46% between 2000 and 2012. Spending on city employees diverted resources from public safety and infrastructure. Detroit's finances were crumbling, as was the city itself. People began leaving the city to find better, safer living conditions.

 

Growing Debt

So we have a city with shrinking population, property values and tax revenue. A bad situation, but one that proved manageable until the mid-1980's. At that time, as the fiscal imbalances continued to worsen, Detroit's leaders decided to close the revenue gap with debt - paying today's bills with borrowed money to be paid sometime in the future. And that continued right up until 2008. Detroit's debt went from just over $1 billion in 1985 to about $8 billion today, and that amount does not include accrued liabilities such as pensions, retiree healthcare costs or debt interest. The total debt including those costs has been estimated at about $18 billion.

 

The decision to allow Detroit to proceed with Chapter 9 bankruptcy allows the city to renegotiate its debt obligations. The primary debt holders are municipal bonds and city employee pensions. Detroit has hired an emergency manager to try to build a consensus solution, but it won't be easy. Pensioners and retirees don't want benefits reduced, and bond holders don't want default losses. Fortunately for pensioners, numerous not-for-profit groups have committed millions of dollars in donations to the city to avoid dramatic pension reductions. Bond holders on the other hand don't have too many people in their court. I would expect to see haircuts of up to 50%, maybe more, for bond holders.

 

What I find frustrating is that the people who made the decisions to continue spending beyond income while simultaneously ramping-up debt face no repercussions for their choices. For pensioners, those city officials made promises, in the form of future payouts that simply cannot be kept. Reduced pensions (which are almost a certainty) hurt those affected tremendously. The burden is left almost entirely to those who remain in the city, as few as they are.

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