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Photo © RiteOn LLC and Chuck MacNab
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POLL VAULTING
By Growltiger*
The pollsters blew it again; this time in the United Kingdom. According to pre-election polling, the race was going to be a nail-biter (happy dances all around the media and polling companies). The Tories might hang on by an eyelash, they said; that's if they weren't upended altogether. Even if they did manage to eke out a victory, no way could they govern without forming a coalition with the unsavory right wingers. Right wingers are always unsavory in mediaspeak.
The Tories won the election in a blow out. No coalition would be necessary. Ed Milliband, Labour's leader, resigned. Tears were shed so copiously by media and pollsters on both sides of the Atlantic the ocean salinity increased by 4% which seriously alarmed climate change alarmists.
Two months earlier, polls in Israel predicted thorn-in-President Obama's-side, Benjamin Netanyahu, was going to take a bath. Pollsters prognosticated that Netanyahu's Likud Party would lose to the Center-Left Zionist Union by four seats. The uncooperative Bibi was going to (be) thrown out of office for the second time. (In 1996, then thorn-in-President Clinton's-side, Netanyahu, was defeated by Ehud Barak with the help of Clinton former campaign strategist, James Carville). This time, one of President Obama's former election aides rendered assistance to Netanyahu's opponent (1).
The ingrate Israelis disobeyed and voted for Likud.
In November, 2014, Republicans were threatening to take over the Senate. In mediaspeak, Democrats "win" elections, Republicans "take over". Polls labeled Georgia a "toss up" with media darling Michelle Nunn positioned to defeat Republican David Perdue. In the Old Dominion, popular former Governor and current senator, Mark Warner, was so far ahead of Ed Gillespie in the polls, the electronic machines wouldn't need to malfunction. (Growltiger had a personal interaction with a recalcitrant Virginia Beach voting machine in the gubernatorial election the previous year).
Out in Kentucky, Senate Minority leader, Mitch McConnell, was in a tight race with Allison Grimes while farther west, Kansas Republican recumbent Pat Roberts looked like he was going to lose to "Independent" Gregory Orman. Alaska, North Carolina, Iowa and New Hampshire were all considered "toss ups"; Colorado and Arkansas were close but "leaning" Republican.
But on election night, Kentucky was called for McConnell within minutes of the polls closing while Democratic sure-thing, Virginia, remained too close to call until the votes of the Washington, DC suburbs were counted. It would be interesting to know how many people who would have voted for Gillespie stayed home because they thought he didn't have a chance.
Of all the pollster's "toss up" states, only New Hampshire went Democratic.
So how did the pollsters get it so wrong? Incompetence? Or by design? In the case of Virginia, did the pre-election polls skew the election? Some pollsters blame cell phones which generally are unlisted. Others point out how difficult it is to evaluate the voting preferences of voters who hang up or refuse to tell strangers for whom they will be voting. British analysts blamed the "shy Tory" vote, voters who won't admit they're voting against Labour. Rem Korteeweg, a senior research fellow at the Center for European Research in London showed his own bias when he told the New York Times: "People say who they are voting for with their heart and then vote with their wallets." (2) It obviously didn't occur to Mr. Korteeweg or the NY Times that perhaps the "Shy Tories" didn't vote with their wallets but rather with their brains. It is also possible the "Shy Tories" aren't shy at all, but rather purposely lie to the pollsters because they believe they represent a left-leaning media that might double down on digging up dirt on the left's opponents.
Pollsters who are honest with others and themselves admit they have a pro-liberal, anti-conservative bias. What they don't take into consideration is that conservative voters know that, too, and behave accordingly. Liberals tend to be magical thinkers. If they wish for something hard enough, the wish will come true. They believe their own propaganda. Since they talk only to each other and shout down or shut up dissenting voices, they underestimate the number of dissenting voices out there. They overestimate their intelligence and underestimate the intelligence of their political opponents. And because Charlotte Church and George Clooney descend from their gilded mansions in the clouds long enough to champion the party that claims to represent Everyman, they think every man is a fool and easily led.
(1) Obama's Top Election Aid
(2) John Fund on Incorrect Polls
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*The Missouri Patriot LLC and RiteOn LLC have full permission to publish Growltiger's commentaries
------------------- "During times of deceit,
telling the truth is a revolutionary act."
- George Orwell '1984'
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