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A "SEA CHANGE" IN POLITICS
By Chuck MacNab
Are we seeing the beginning of a "sea change" in Republican Party politics? Reports from last evening's Fox News analysis, along with comments made by Laura Ingraham, indicate that she was surprised that the leader of a major Tea Party organization ignored inquiries from the VA Republican Primary winner, David Brat. This does not mean the organization didn't
favor him but, as Laura stated, he did not receive a return call from Jenny Beth Martin after he called her to request a conversation (we assume support). These large Tea Party organizations have a penchant for taking an exaggerated level of credit when, in actuality, local grass roots efforts may be the primary reason for a "win." This indicates a level political immaturity on the part of tea party organizations that is not appealing to many, especially experienced political activists.
The media is giving the Tea Party credit for Dave Brat's upset over House Leader Eric Cantor but an analysis of the facts may prove that to be a fabricated assumption. For one thing, news reports say that the over-all turnout was light. This may indicate that Cantor's campaign was over confident and believed he had it made. As a result, his "normal" constituency may have failed to vote in adequate numbers. Apparently, again according to news reports, Cantor's campaign spent 2.5 million dollars (some say as high as 5 million) and Brat spent 120 thousand, a stunning statistic considering the outcome of the election. Apparently, in this race, no matter how much was spent by Cantor, it didn't bring his folks to the polls and that's interesting.
Another factor that played a part in Eric Cantor's election loss, we believe, was media publicity surrounding the recent massive surge of illegal immigrants crossing the U.S.-Mexican border and how this plays into Republican strategy concerning immigration legislation. Some reports put the latest figures at ten times the "normal" number of immigrants. The media's reporting of a massive surge of illegal's into the U.S. which is overwhelming the Border Patrol and the busing of large numbers of these immigrants into other areas of the country and "dumping" them on street corners and at bus stations helped to bring the issue to the forefront at a critical time. News reports state that Eric Cantor was thought to be saying one thing about immigration and doing another. Voters apparently believed he might support amnesty and the American people are overwhelmingly opposed to that.
According to media reports the Defense Department has turned several military bases in the southwest into refugee camps. Many speculate that Obama has developed a policy of converting the military into a social welfare agency whose purpose, over time, is to use illegal immigration to create massive numbers of future Democrat voters. In effect, this policy, and others related, will create a dictated amnesty that, some say, will cause the Republican Party to become irrelevant in future elections.
One reason why this particular race is so significant is that it is the first time in the history of the country that a House Leader has lost a primary election! Since Eric Cantor was Leader of the "do nothing" Republican controlled House of Representatives, conservative voters wanted him out of office. Additionally, he may have been blamed for Congress failing to exercise even minimal control over repeated unconstitutional actions of the Obama Administration. Nonetheless, John Boehner, Mitch McConnell and, yesterday, Lindsey Graham, all high profile Republican "insiders," won their races handily. So any conclusion that Republican Party leaders are listening to the grass roots and putting the big money guys on hold is premature at this point. The striking outcome of the Virginia Primary election may force them to appear to listen more to the grass roots but in our opinion it will take a lot more than an election upset to change the way Republican Party politics works. Certainly, House Leader Eric Cantor's unprecedented defeat yesterday will get serious attention from the top leadership of the Republican Party.
Will any changes that may result be positive for conservatives in the 2014 and 2016 elections? Certainly a conservative victory culminating in change and control over government policies is the desired objective of these elections. As long as the outcome keeps control of the House, gains control of the Senate and, ultimately, removes the current Administration from office, that goal will have been achieved. It is still an open question whether the Republican Party leadership will heed the message that the grass roots has sent in rejecting Eric Cantor.
A relevant link: http://nws.mx/1kYHG6W